Snow Drought!

When Chief Minister Omar Abdullah calls for artificial snow-making systems in famous ski-resort Gulmarg, it clearly points towards how deep the tentacles of climate change have hit Jammu and Kashmir.

Since childhood Gulmarg has been a favourite haunt for Omar, who is a nature lover and an avid skier. Skiing down alpine slopes of Afarwat Peak, covered with thick powder snow, in the last 50 years, Omar has been witness to the unmatched natural glory of the ski-resort especially in winters. Gulmarg and snowfall used to be synonymous in winters. During a recent tourism related function in the ski-resort, Omar minced no words to blame climate change for stark reduction in snowfall over recent years in J&K including Gulmarg.

Omar pointed out that Gulmarg, surrounded by mountains, used to receive heavy snowfall by mid-December, but recent winters “have seen little to none”, posing a serious challenge to winter tourism. “If we do not adapt, skiing in Gulmarg risks becoming a memory rather than a living tradition,” Omar cautioned. He emphasised the need for technological interventions and advocated adoption of artificial snow-making systems, as practiced in several European ski destinations. The CM also suggested storing rainwater and deploying snow machines when temperatures fall below zero, at least on select slopes, particularly those serviced by newly installed drag lifts.

Slopes of Gulmarg attract skiers from around the globe and it is alarming that we have reached a stage of adopting artificial snow-making systems. This shows the extent of damage climate change has done to the ecosystem.

Omar recalling Gulmarg legacy said skiing was practised in the resort long before the sport gained popularity elsewhere in the country. However, he noted “changing circumstances and climatic shifts had caused Jammu and Kashmir to lag behind other destinations that are now more frequently mentioned in national conversations on trekking, mountaineering and rafting.”

CM rightly shares the concern of people and environmentalists on climate change. The India Meteorological Department (IMD has reported a drastic reduction in snowfall. In the last two months, Kashmir has experienced a 46.63% snowfall deficit. Satellite-based assessments show 23% reduction in snowfall over the past five years with November showing downfall by 40–45% and December by 28%.46.63% deficit in snowfall by December is set to break the previous 50-year old record. Amid prolonged dry spells spreading to the peak winter period, 2025 is projected to be one of the driest years. This season so far Gulmarg, Zojila Pass, Miminarg, Baltal and Tulail received a thin layer of snowfall which otherwise used to be draped by heavy snow spells.

La Nina conditions and the persistent dry spell have led to a drastic dip in temperatures across Kashmir. La Nina is the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and is known for cooler-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the south and central equatorial pacific. La Nina is set to cause a decrease in mercury and influence winter weather patterns globally including Kashmir.

Environmentalists have warned that less snowfall can spell doom on horticulture, agriculture, glaciers and water bodies. “Kashmir has been experiencing a sustained decline in winter snowfall, largely due to the weakening frequency and intensity of Western Disturbances. Rising winter temperatures over the past few decades have further reduced snow persistence on the landscape by accelerating melt. The region has witnessed four snowless Chillai Kalaans (core winter period) over the last two decades, which is alarming. Episodic extreme events, such as the spring heatwave of 2022 and recurrent above-normal summer-autumn-winter temperatures, have further contributed to increasingly snow-deficient landscapes,” states Dr Irfan Rashid a noted environmentalist and Associate Professor and Head Department of Geo-informatics, University of Kashmir.

Snowmelt accounts for 50 % of streamflow in Kashmir, making winter snowfall critical for sustaining hydrology and water availability. Dr Rashid, who has done extensive studies on climate change, states that any reduction in snow cover or snowfall directly translates into diminished spring and summer runoff. ‘As observed in the past, such changes adversely affect irrigated agriculture, horticultural productivity, and hydropower generation, thereby posing serious challenges to the region’s water security and climate resilience.”

J&K and Ladakh house some of the largest glaciers in the Hindu Kush region. Kolahoi, the largest glacier of Kashmir’s Jhelum Basin, is retreating rapidly due to a spurt in temperature triggered by global warming and extreme pollution. Thajiwas, Hoksar, Nehnar, Shishram, and glaciers around Harmukh are melting fast. Precipitation in form or snow or rains is considered vital to the Kashmir region as it is vital for maintaining hydrology and the region’s water security.

Melting glaciers coupled with less snowfall and rains will subsequently hit our hydropower projects. Snowfall deficit and higher temperatures in winter poses risk of increased cryosphere-related hazards like permafrost degradation triggered slope failures including debris flows, mudflows, and rock falls and also trigger Glacial Lake Outburst Floods. Snowfall between the peak winter period between December 21 and January 29, is considered to be important for regulation.

Studies have predicted that Kashmir valley will experience more frequent and prolonged dry spells from the mid to end of the 21st century making it a new norm during 2051-2099 due to the climate change.

Snow precipitation comprises 52 % of the total annual precipitation and contributes 55 % to the annual streamflow with the peak observed in May. However, projections to the end of the 21st century indicate that there shall be a considerable decrease in both the snow precipitation and snowmelt contribution to the streamflow. Amid change in the form of precipitation under climate change in the Kashmir basin, a significant increase in the streamflow is predicted during the February–May period when the crop water requirement in the basin is very negligible. Subsequently the depleting stream flow predicted in the Upper Indus Basin ending in the twenty-first century will have serious impacts on various sectors of the economy, particularly agriculture and dependent livelihoods which are already facing severe water scarcity.

There is a need for scientific measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. We need to wake up, introspect and join global efforts to contribute our bit to save this planet from turning into a desert. Let’s take a pledge to protect and preserve our environment for our survival, our future generations!

Author is Executive Editor,

Greater Kashmir