Shaky ruling alliance

National Conference-Congress (I.N.D.I.A) alliance which started on an equal footing with both the parties properly working out distribution of seats, barring a few hiccups, in their respective strongholds of Kashmir and Jammu respectively, is gradually taking a curious turn as the Union Territory (UT) assembly is inching to complete six months of its maiden term. What started on an even keel has in a short span of time evolved into a solo show.

Although discomfort is writ large on the face of chief minister Mr Omar Abdullah, a careful scrutiny of various interviews including one to the BBC, he has not let any opportunity go in expressing his friendly overtures towards the Centre. To be precise the Narendra Modi-led BJP government at the Centre. On the contrary, he has been critical, in some measures of the I.N.D.I.A combine supposed to be ruling Jammu and Kashmir with Congress and CPM as its part.

Ostensibly, and rightly too, he has another most important alliance in mind if his government has to survive. And that is the Lt Governor’s office, who in the case of the UT is the Centre’s all-powerful points-man.

Mr Abdullah is making the right noises while his more illustrious father Dr Farooq Abdullah, who has weathered many a political storm is quietly watching from the sidelines. In the midst of his frantic forays, attend weddings and wherever possible shake his leg, betraying the fact that he is touching ninety to maintain public connect, Kashmir is once again getting enveloped in a political mist. 

Definitely the Abdullahs are once again at a game of political survival. What makes it more interesting than the past is that they are trying to solve the jigsaw puzzle in an era different from the Manmohan Singh or Vajpayee era. The new era which unfolded with late Mufti Mohammed Sayeed forming an alliance government with Narendra Modi’s BJP, to the utter shock of many, has entered a different phase in the UT dispensation. However, the spectre of PDP-BJP alliance must be haunting the I.N.D.I.A combine government (which practically is NC dispensation); particularly the political and societal repercussions it had mainly in the Kashmir Valley.

Precisely, that was one reason people in the Valley overwhelmingly voted for the NC-Congress alliance to keep the PDP out. In any case BJP was not in the reckoning from the word go. Question arises; Is NC preparing to trudge on the PDP path? At least the eerie silence in Kashmir’s grand-old party points in that direction. Well, the political mystique of the Valley certainly stands in the way.

Will Mr Omar Abdullah go the Mufti Mohammed Sayeed way? Despite their sworn political rivalry, a striking and interesting similarity between the Abdullah and Mufti clans is that they have shared power with BJP- though in different times and eras. Interestingly, BJP’s portrayal as an anti-dynasty party met its nemesis in the beautiful environs of Kashmir by entering into a ruling alliance with Abdullahs, the father-son duo, and Muftis the father-daughter duo, at different times.

In this backdrop where does the ruling alliance partner Congress which is providing outside support, stand? And its impact on I.N.D.I.A bloc?

For the sake of public record the six Congress MLAs led by the CLP leader Mr Ghulam Ahmed Mir met chief minister Mr Omar Abdullah and posed for a group photograph. This, perhaps, was the optical way to suggest that everything was alright with the ruling alliance and that the Congress was properly saddled.

Since the Congress, with merely half-a-dozen MLAs and having lost its entire strong base in the Hindu-dominated Jammu region, seems like becoming irrelevant. Neither they are being factored-in in the running of the government nor in strategizing on developing a working relation with the Centre. Be it the governance front or otherwise, Abdullahs are running a solo act.

The alliance, within six months of its existence, has become vulnerable sooner than expected. None else but the Congress, high command and local leadership, is to be blamed for ensuring a free run for the NC. The faction ridden party which is solidly under the grip of a coterie who presided over the Congress’s debacle in assembly elections and absence of a cleansing operation or measures to unite the party, from AICC quarters, has definitely emboldened Abdullahs into an unchecked solo run. However, they are certainly not to be blamed.

The only change ordered by the AICC is replacing the party in-charge of the UT Mr Bharat Sinh Solanki, a party leader from Gujarat who showed little or no interest in J and K affairs. In fact, allegations are that he buckled under pressure from this coterie right from constitution of the new PCC to selection of candidates and instead preferred to stay away at crucial junctures. Ultimately, he has been quietly removed without fixing any responsibility.

Rajya Sabha MP and a whip of the Parliamentary party in the Upper House Syed Naseer Hussain has replaced Mr Solanki, after some delay, ahead of the civic and panchayat elections. He belongs to Karnataka and is a close associate of Congress president Mr Mallikarjun Kharge, and enjoys a clean image. 

Appointment of a heavyweight and someone close to the party chief, Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Mr Rahul Gandhi, certainly reflects the high command’s seriousness in firming up the party in the UT where, across the seasons, political challenges are galore. His first test will be to unite the party for which a prerequisite is to break the stranglehold of the coterie. The best way to do so is to fix their responsibility for the electoral debacle, personal as well that of the party, before considering them for any new responsibility.

Setting the house in order will go a long way in helping the party fight civic and panchayat elections. Or else there is every chance of Congress repeating its disastrous performance of assembly polls which certainly will be a major setback for the new in-charge.

Apart from checking the vested interests within the party, Mr Hussain also has a task, pending since long, at hand to ensure return of the influential close aides of Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad to the Congress fold. Most of these leaders, spanned over both Jammu and Kashmir regions, had contested and lost the assembly elections as independent candidates. It was deliberate to keep a distance from Mr Azad and his outfit perceived by the people to be close to the BJP. They lost with a meagre-margins ranging from 500 to 2000 votes. 

This included the prestigious, and important from BJP’s Hindutva point of view, Mata Vaishno Devi seat from where a close Azad aide Mr Jugal Sharma lost by a thousand odd votes. Also, his (Mr Azad’s) right hand man Mr G M Saroori who was an important leader in the Democratic Progressive Azad Party founder Mr Azad’s home district and the local constituency, lost by a similar margin as an independent candidate. By not including them in Congress before assembly elections the party lost the chance to win at least four to five seats. 

Why were they denied entry into Congress before assembly elections? This is a vital question which Mr Hussain must probe into. An answer to this question will certainly empower to take remedial actions. Will they be brought back to Congress before civic and panchayat elections? This will be a vital question confronting Mr Hussain given the persistent pressure of the coterie to block their entry.

Since Mr Hussain has the eyes and ears of both the Congress president and Mr Gandhi, the other daunting task for him will be to ensure continuation of the NC-Congress alliance on an even keel. Well, an effective route to this runs through the Congress performing well in the civic and panchayat elections. Easier said than done.