SCO summit in China

This weekend is very critical to India and its position in the world affairs. It will be rediscovering its ties with China at a time when the US President Donald Trump has turned the world order upside down by his whimsical moves. The Trumpian tariff war has affected the whole world, and it has been particularly unsettling for India. The Indo-US strategic partnership and cooperation, the envy of the world has come under strain because of new tariff regime of the Trump administration and its anti-India verbose.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has accepted President Xi Jinping’s invite to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin beginning August 31st. He has already planned his four day two-nation visit to Japan and China from August 29. This has cleared the air on Indo-China front for the time being, especially when this turnaround has come after high-wire tensions on LAC in eastern Ladakh that lasted for more than four years (April-May 2020 to October 2024).

A credible argument has been advanced that the new-found warmth in Indo-China relations is due to the American tariffs, in which India has been specially targeted for buying Russian oil disregarding the western objections. The US and the European Union were not happy with India buying Russian oil and they made it known in diplomatic exchanges in public. The Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishnakar, in his own style, was quite curt in defending the Indian decisions and exposing west’s hypocrisy.

America has launched a highly charged narrative that unfairly casts India as a central enabler of Russia’s war economy. This ignores broader complexities of global energy markets and strategic diplomacy. It has been noted by the international observers who understand the importance of diplomacy.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to China to attend the SCO summit and possibility of his meeting with President Xi is reinforcement and extension of the strategic diplomacy. This pursuit in the diplomacy runs against the backdrop of rapidly changing dynamics of the geopolitics of the world, and particularly in the region where these two Asian giants sit as neighbours to each other.

The Trump factor is there. But this is only part of the story. It is not only about events that change the dynamics of ties in the international relations. There, indeed is cause and effect theory that springs up in such situations. It may be correct that the Trumpian actions have expedited such a denouement, but then this is not the whole story. In simple words, the relations between Delhi and Beijing underwent many upheavals in the past few years, but there also was a consistency in pursing the path of dialogue and diplomacy in the crisis situation.

Before coming to the SCO summit and the hopes and promises it holds, it is crucial to look back at the four-plus years of high tensions on the LAC in eastern Ladakh. This is one of the most sensitive areas where borders of China and Pakistan meet with India. The region throws unparalleled and unprecedented security challenges. That is to say, that no other region in the country has such a complex security implications for national security.

China has sought to dominate the Himalayan region for what it calls its guard its security and sovereignty. The April-May 2020 crisis at the LAC in Ladakh region was a manifestation of its intentions. This region is important for China as it is the pathway of ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and its all-weather friend Pakistan. China’s Xinjiang province borders Glgit-Baltistan, which is part of India. Maharaja Hari Singh had acceded whole of the princely state to India in October 1947. The CPEC passes through this region.

The military standoff at LAC in Ladakh inflicted a situation not only in the region but it created a massive crisis for India. It had to defend its territorial integrity and sovereignty. The situation worsened after the Galwan valley clashes. The Galwan Valley clashes between PLA troops and Indian soldiers on June 15/16, 2020, left 20 Indian army men dead. The Chinese casualties are not known till date. These clashes, it was presumed, would result into more such fighting on the borders. But, the Indian approach of seeking resolution of the crisis, through sustained military presence, and dialogue and diplomacy delivered results. Now, the elephant and dragon are practicing their dancing steps ahead of the SCO summit.

This gives an insight into the Indian approach to keep the relations going despite these setbacks. China is not like any other country in Asia with which things can be taken to extremes. The diplomacy demands realistic action and assessment, not rushing into multiplication of ugly situations.

This also substantiates that India has been consistent in taking its own decisions. It had rejected the American intervention during the military standoff with China as firmly as it rejected western objections on purchase of Russian oil. It explains that India is participating in the SCO summit as an important and responsible member of the group.

A picture of Prime Minister Modi and President Xi shaking hands will not only be a symbol of good optics but also echo a resounding message to the international community that India takes its independent decisions. It values all the international groups, be it QUAD or SCO or BRICS. Its international and bilateral ties are not hostage to third country’s perceptions or misperceptions. It would be a message to Trump that his tariff and sanctions cannot deter its policies.

It won’t be an exaggeration to say that the SCO- 2025 will be India’s moment. First, the participation of SCO amid all the clouds of uncertainty is a bold decision to tell the dissenters in the global community that India’s position can neither be determined nor undermined by others. Its ties with China hold separate importance, both on the bilateral and the global level. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin too would be participating in the summit, it will bring Delhi, Beijing and Moscow together, and the centre of attention will be PM, representing the most populous and the largest democratic country in the world.