Safeguarding local economies

As the US president Donald Trump’s retaliatory tariffs on the countries around the world take effect, its repercussions on the world economy are becoming quickly apparent. But in regions such as Jammu and Kashmir, whose local economies are largely based on their traditional handicrafts exports, and horticulture products like apples, the effect could prove particularly severe and lasting.

Among the hardest hit is Kashmir's centuries-old craft industry. With a 26% duty now imposed on Indian exports to the US market, Kashmiri exporters and craftsmen will find it increasingly difficult to be competitive in a market they've depended on for some time. Shawls, rugs, and papier mâché products—famous for their quality—now will become markedly costlier to American consumers, potentially reducing the market and threatening livelihoods.

Increased input and shipping costs, along with lower price competitiveness, will make a big impact. For an already troubled economy with a limited access to overseas markets, this is a severe setback.

Kashmir's horticulture industry, which provides livelihoods to close to 3.5 million people, is also in line to pay its price. A likely lowering of Indian tariffs on imports from US agriculture could inundate the domestic market with American apples, almonds, and walnuts. The entry of high-quality, affordable apples would undermine the already weak market share of Kashmiri apples.

While Indian and US officials are reportedly negotiating a trade deal to soften the blow, time is running out. The base 10% tariff takes effect immediately, with the 26% India-specific duty set to kick in by April 9. Meanwhile, exporters are scrambling to renegotiate contracts and reassess pricing models. For many, the uncertainty is already translating into paused orders, deferred payments, and a freeze on future planning.

This is not simply an issue of trade—it is a matter of survival for Kashmiri handicrafts makers and horticulturists. Without immediate and purposeful action from the central government, Trump's tariffs risk inflicting an almost fatal blow on our economically vulnerable region. But there’s still hope that the central government will find a way out and stave off any damaging fallout on J&K’s economy.