Safeguard apple economy
As details of the interim India–US trade framework begin to surface, optimism in official statements contrasts sharply with some anxiety in Kashmir’s orchards. Early indications suggest that the apple economy of the Valley could be among the most exposed sectors if safeguards are not clearly built into the final agreement.
Accounting for nearly 80 percent of India’s apple output, it supports around 3.5 million people directly and indirectly and contributes close to 8 percent of Jammu and Kashmir’s GSDP. Any policy shift affecting apple imports therefore has consequences far beyond price fluctuations. It will affect the Valley’s rural economy. Against this backdrop, reports that India has agreed to reduce tariffs on several agricultural and food products to zero, including fresh and processed fruits, raise legitimate concerns, even if the full contours of the deal are yet to be clarified.
The competitiveness gap between the US and India in this sector is undeniable. According to available data, Indian orchards yield 7–8 tonnes per hectare, compared to 40–70 tonnes in countries like the US, New Zealand and Iran, where mechanisation, technology and scale dramatically lower production costs. Opening the Indian market to duty-free US apples, even partially, risks tilting the playing field beyond recovery. The concern is not only about cheaper imports, but about the possibility of market dominance by a single supplier, leaving domestic growers exposed to price crashes and unsold stock.
The government must therefore ensure that minimum import prices, tariff protections and effective enforcement mechanisms are explicitly retained for sensitive sectors like apples. In recent years, the influx of cheaper Iranian apples, often declared as Afghan produce to exploit zero-duty access under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), has wrought havoc on Kashmiri apple growers. Prices have crashed. Cold storages in the Valley have run out of space. Many farmers have been forced to sell below production cost. The imports, aided by loopholes in policy and lax customs enforcement, have crippled an industry already strained by climate change and political instability. But despite these setbacks, the industry has somehow pulled through. But if the reports about the new trade deal are true, opening the country’s market to American apple will be for Kashmiri apples the last straw that broke the camel’s back.
