Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Is conflict in Ukraine shifting in Russia’s favour? In 2024, Russian forces seized nearly six times more territory than in 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by BBC. The advancing Russian troops are concentrating and gaining territory in eastern Ukraine. The conflict after 1000 days and with republican Donald Trump, the new President-elect in the United States who is supposed to take the administration’s reign on January 20, 2025, is reshaping. Meanwhile, in the last two months of President Joe Biden’s rule, the United States approval of allowing Kyiv to use long-range missiles against deep Russian positions is increasing the threat of more sophisticated weaponry going to be tested or used against each other on the battlefield.

Long-Range Missiles Enter the Fight

Kyiv received a morale boost this week with US President Biden’s approval and the deployment of US-supplied long-range missiles. Now Ukraine, with the help of long-range missiles, are desperately going to strike deep into Russian territory to attempt to disrupt the Russian supply lines. Analysts suggest this move could help Ukraine hold onto contested areas like Kursk, which may serve as bargaining chips in future negotiations.

However, introducing these advanced weapons escalates the tension and increases the risks. In the past, Russia has been warning against Western military support, cautioning of consequences if long-range missiles are used that could provoke further retaliation in all those countries helping and supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Russia also has warned to use a strong response and even demonstrated it. On Thursday, Russians responded with a long-range ballistic missile attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro and warned of more retaliatory actions. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his country has a stockpile of advanced Oreshnik hypersonic missiles “ready to be used,”. In an unscheduled television address, Putin claimed the missiles, capable of travelling at ten times the speed of sound, are virtually impossible to intercept and promised further testing in “combat conditions.”

The strike on Dnipro, described by media quoting witnesses as highly unusual and involving powerful ballistic weaponry, marked a new escalation in the conflict. Ukrainian officials called the missile’s impact to that of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Meanwhile, Ukraine for the first time earlier used long-range missile strikes on Russian territory with U.S.-supplied ATACMS and British-supplied Storm Shadow systems.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is further urging Western allies to deliver advanced air defence systems, including the U.S. THAAD and upgrades to Patriot systems, to counter these threats.

Both developments reshape the conflict’s undercurrents and warn about its future. 

Russia’s campaign has so far focused heavily on key logistical hubs in the Donbas region. The ISW estimates that Moscow’s forces have captured around 2,700 square kilometres this year, compared to just 465 square kilometres in 2023. Recent gains include areas near Kupiansk in Kharkiv and Kurakhove in Donetsk, both critical for Ukraine’s supply lines. Kupiansk, once liberated by Ukraine in its 2022 counteroffensive, is now under severe pressure. Russian troops are reported to be just a couple of kilometres from a key bridge into the city. In Kurakhove, Russia is attempting to encircle Ukrainian defenders, inching closer to the strategic hub of Pokrovsk. Some of the media has reported that they have already captured the area and one can see Russian flags hurling on several buildings and bridges.

Experts warn that Ukraine’s eastern defences may struggle to hold. Dr Marina Miron of King’s College London told the BBC that the eastern front could face collapse if Russian advances continue unchecked. Russia’s advances have come at a steep cost. According to BBC analysis, over 78,000 Russian soldiers have died since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Losses have been especially severe in recent months, reflecting what some analysts call a “meat grinder” strategy—waves of recruits deployed to exhaust Ukrainian defences.

Ukrainian losses are also substantial, though official numbers vary widely. The Russian Ministry of Defence has given figures of over 33,990 Ukrainian soldiers who have died in the Kursk region alone. The number of casualties and destruction highlights the brutal nature of the conflict.

The U.S. decision to supply Ukraine with antipersonnel landmines has further drawn criticism for risking civilian casualties and marks another shift in American policy on the controversial weapon. Officials argue the mines are essential to slowing Russian advances, but anti-landmine campaigners say that 164 countries have already banned the use of landmines and it should not be encouraged in any circumstances.

In addition, Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August marked a bold strategy. At that time, Kyiv briefly gained control of several border areas, aiming to draw Russian forces away from the eastern front. However, the operation has stalled. Russia has since deployed 50,000 troops to the region, regaining much of the lost territory.

Dr. Miron has called the operation a “tactical success but a strategic failure,” noting that it diverted some of Ukraine’s best units from the more critical eastern front. Instead of slowing Russia’s advance in the Donbas, the operation has tied down resources at a crucial time.

The support Russians are getting from North Korea is also helping Russian troops in advancing. North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to support Russia, and Ukrainian forces say they have faced these troops in battles in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine controls some areas. U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed he approved Ukraine’s use of longer-range ATACMS missiles to strike targets inside Russia in response to Russia using North Korean troops in the war.

The Bigger Picture

Russia’s recent gains have strengthened its negotiating position. The ISW estimates that Moscow now controls over 110,000 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory. By contrast, Ukraine’s territorial gains in its Kursk incursion are shrinking, with Russia retaking nearly half of what Kyiv initially seized. The conflict’s human toll also continues to grow. The Russian government has allocated $58.7 million to support residents in the Kursk and Belgorod regions affected by Ukrainian shelling.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at G 20 meeting in Brazil while speaking to the media last week accused France of direct participation in the war, citing its training of Ukrainian troops and supply of advanced missiles.

Russia has revised its nuclear doctrine, expanding the conditions under which it might deploy its arsenal. The approval of the Russian Doctrine shift coincides with Washington’s decision to allow Ukraine to fire long-range US missiles into Russian areas. The updated policy now considers an attack by a non-nuclear state, if supported by a nuclear-armed ally, as grounds for a nuclear response. Additionally, large-scale conventional attacks on Russia, Belarus, or threats to critical sovereignty could meet the threshold. As per the state-run TASS news agency, the changes and shift in strategy broaden the scope of potential nuclear targets and escalate the stakes of any coalition-led aggression.

Political observers see Russia’s assertive nuclear posture as an action in response to Western provocations. Chances are that Russia, as a deterrence act, may wheel in tactical nuclear weapons closer to NATO’s borders. This could be further dangerous that might further escalate the conflict.

This doctrine shift introduces a new phase. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson in a veiled warning urged the nations to analyse it carefully. Meanwhile, Moscow has warned that US involvement via advanced weaponry could be interpreted as direct participation in hostilities.

What Comes Next?

The war’s trajectory remains uncertain. While Russia has momentum, its progress is slow and costly. Ukraine, for its part, continues to resist, employing strategic withdrawals to preserve its forces for a prolonged fight.

The hope from the elected United States President, Donald Trump adds further unpredictability. The US president-elect has promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, though he has not explained how he is so confident on the issue. The world keeps its hope on Donald Trump now. The question remains, will the US cut military aid to Ukraine, shifting the balance of power on the battlefield?

However, it is certain that as the conflict continues as it has already surpassed 1,000 days, both sides are likely positioning themselves for eventual negotiations holding some strength to bargain. For now, the war’s outcome will depend on who can sustain their efforts longer, a question with no easy answer.

Author is National Editor, Greater Kashmir.