RS Polls, Assembly By-polls: J&K parties brace for contest, alliance math in focus
Jammu, Oct 02: The announcement of the schedule by the Election Commission of India (ECI) for biennial elections to four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha from Jammu and Kashmir and hint for conducting by-polls to Budgam and Nagrota assembly seats in UT along with Bihar assembly elections has activated the political parties in J&K to get into a huddle.
As per the ECI schedule, biennial polls to the Rajya Sabha to elect four MPs from J&K will be held on October 24, 2025.
However, the notification for by-polls to Budgam and Nagrota assembly seats is likely to be issued by the ECI with the schedule for Bihar assembly polls later this month (October).
Nevertheless, the ECI announcements have already triggered a flurry of political activities in J&K amid the latest reports that AICC special observer Digvijay Singh will initiate ‘poll-arrangement’ talks with the National Conference leadership.
When? The question remains dicey as even the regional leaders have no clear idea so far.
Thus, the process to draw the final stratagem has yet to gain momentum as the coalition partners, Congress and National Conference are in the process of warming-up to ‘renew and revive’ their ‘arrangement’ for crucial polls – a litmus test for their alliance.
To put the record straight, right from the word ‘go’, going by numerical strength, there will be three key players in the electoral chess-game – National Conference, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress - by virtue of being an ally of the National Conference.
Key player National Conference, which has clear dominance in case of Rajya Sabha polls and has a number strength of its own to bag three seats, has already cleared its stance.
On September 25, the Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had clearly dismissed the speculative reports about zeroing in on the names of party candidates for Rajya Sabha polls, stating that the National Conference had yet to deliberate and take a call on that.
“It is for the party (NC) to decide (names of candidates). As far as I know, so far in the National Conference, we have not yet deliberated or decided as to who will be given the mandate. There are four seats. We have yet to decide on how many seats NC will contest and how many seats will be given to others (allies). We will take a call on that,” he had asserted.
Hint was clear – NC will talk, whenever it happens, from a position of strength.
Just for the record, the names of party president Dr Farooq Abdullah, former ministers Sajjad Ahmed Kichloo and Chowdhary Ramzan have remained in circulation in news reports as NC candidates for RS seats. But the party has not authenticated any such report.
In case of assembly by-polls, however, NC will generally have no threat in Budgam but from inside - due to strained ties with the party MP Aga Syed Ruhullah.
The names of CM’s advisor Nasir Aslam Wani and Aga Mehmood are in circulation as probable. But the party maintains that so far, no call has been taken.
“There is nothing to worry about. There is no rumbling. NC candidates will be announced at the appropriate time,” a senior NC leader stated, preferring anonymity.
DIGVIJAY SINGH’S ROLE IN POLL NEGOTIATIONS
For election alliance - both in case of RS and assembly by-polls, All India Congress Committee (AICC) special observer and former Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh (MP) Digvijay Singh is likely to lead the negotiations with the NC.
“Yes, he has been a special AICC observer for J&K for the past some time to oversee the coalition affairs on behalf of Congress. It is not that he has been entrusted with the task for these polls specifically. There are four RS seats. Talks will be held between the coalition partners to decide and draw an election strategy as to how to conduct and win. Budgam and Nagrota are also going to (by)polls soon. We are in the coalition. So, deliberations between the alliance partners are a natural process and will be held in due course of time,” Congress sources point out, while responding to queries about the negotiation process.
“When the process starts and what ultimately is decided with the NC leadership, Digvijay Singh will report to the Congress high command, which is authorised to take a final call,” sources explain.
With regard to Nagrota and Budgam assembly by-polls, they assert that in that case also, final call will be taken after discussions with the NC, keeping in view the parties’ strength.
“However, the effort will be to avoid a friendly contest in any case and ensure that we (NC-Congress) fight together to ensure BJP’s defeat. For the official schedule of talks and Digvijay Singh’s schedule to visit J&K, you may speak to the JKPCC spokesperson as those details are not with us,” they maintain. The reference was to the Nagrota assembly seat.
JKPCC chief spokesperson Ravinder Sharma, when contacted on this account, did not confirm any scheduled visit of Singh to J&K.
“AICC special observer (Digvijay Singh) has been appointed to look after coalition affairs. But so far, there is no official confirmation of the visit of the AICC special observer. Talks with the coalition partner will be held in due course of time. But I’ve no information that for the deliberations, he will specifically visit J&K or not,” Sharma told Greater Kashmir.
BJP SEEMS NOT TO BE IN HURRY
Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party has adopted a wait-and-watch mode, keeping an eye on the activities of other key players.
“So far, no decision has been taken on candidates in both cases (RS and assembly by-polls). The process (of deliberations) will start soon. Our election committee will deliberate on these issues and will submit its report to the central leadership for final call,” the J&K BJP general secretary (organisation) Ashok Koul told Greater Kashmir, in response to queries about its (party’s) probable candidates.
RAJYA SABHA POLLS’ SCHEDULE
On September 24, ending the prolonged wait, the Election Commission of India (ECI) had announced that the biennial elections to four vacant seats in the Council of States (Rajya Sabha), from Jammu and Kashmir, would be held on October 24.
These four vacancies will be filled by holding three separate elections, in accordance with the law.
Seats have been lying vacant since 2021 when the term of office of 4 members elected from erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir expired on their retirement.
These members included Mir Mohammad Fayaz, Shamsher Singh, Ghulam Nabi Azad and Nazir Ahmed Laway.
Mir Mohammad Fayaz of PDP and Shamsher Singh of BJP had retired on February 10, 2021 followed by Ghulam Nabi Azad of Congress and Nazir Ahmed Laway (elected as PDP candidate) on February 15, 2021.
However, the elections to these vacant seats could not be conducted due to non-availability of required electorate (Members of J&K Legislative Assembly) at the time of occurrence of these vacancies.
Now almost a year after the conduct of J&K assembly elections, the ECI has notified the schedule.
As per the schedule, the notification for elections will be issued on October 6, 2025. The last date for making nominations will be October 13 and scrutiny of nominations will take place on October 14, 2025.
Last date for withdrawal of candidatures will be October 16, 2025 and the poll will be taken on October 24 from 9 am to 4 pm. The counting of votes will also take place on the same day - October 24 at 5 pm.
As per the ECI schedule, the entire election process should be completed before October, 28, 2025.
Given the seat matrix in J&K Legislature, the NC-Congress combine is all set to wrest three seats comfortably, while the BJP may bag one seat in case of the election to be held against the separate notification for two seats (together).
NC has 41 MLAs and five independent MLAs are also supporting it. AAP MLA (presently detained under PSA) though recently announced to withdraw its support to NC, yet in the changed circumstances, may again join alliance ranks. In any case, he is not going to vote for the BJP. CPI-M MLA and 6 Congress MLAs are part of the alliance.
In case, Congress gets one seat to contest, PDP’s 3 MLAs may also support its candidate, as the latter (PDP) is also part of the INDIA bloc.
BJP has only 28 MLAs while two seats are vacant.
NOTIFICATION ABOUT BUDGAM, NAGROTA BYPOLLS YET TO BE ISSUED
On September 28, the Election Commission of India (ECI) had deployed central observers - General, Police and Expenditure observers for Bihar assembly elections and bye-elections in eight assembly segments of other states (and UT), including Budgam and Nagrota constituencies of J&K.
Deployment of observers finally ended the speculation about the time and schedule of long-pending bye-elections to two vacant seats in the 90-member J&K Legislative Assembly.
Nagrota seat had fallen vacant after the sad and sudden demise of BJP legislator and its senior leader Devender Singh Rana on October 31, 2024, days after the result of J&K assembly elections. The election result was announced on October 8, 2024.
The Budgam seat was vacated by the Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on October 21, 2024. He contested from two seats - Budgam and Ganderbal. Later he vacated the Budgam seat and decided to retain the Ganderbal seat- his family’s bastion.
Though no party has yet announced any candidate for these assembly segments yet for the Nagrota seat - perceived to be BJP's stronghold - Devyani Rana, late Devender Rana’s daughter is being seen as its (BJP’s) potential candidate.
