Rising conflicts, reduced resolutions figure among troubling trends in Global Peace Index

New Delhi, Jan 15: The 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI) released this week showcased a detailed analysis of peacefulness and tranquillity across 163 independent states and territories, covering 99.7% of the global population.

The statistics are compiled by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI stands as the foremost benchmark for evaluating global peace.

The GPI reveals that global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.56% over the past year, with 97 countries recording declines, the highest in the index’s history.

South Asia’s standing as the third least peaceful region, ahead of only the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and sub-Saharan Africa, reflects the widening peace gap between the most and least peaceful regions worldwide.

The report suggests that Iceland is the world's most peaceful nation, while Yemen remains the lowest rank according to the GPI. Meanwhile, Europe continues to dominate as the most peaceful region, in stark contrast to South Asia.

India

Progress Amid Challenges stands at number 116, a five-position rise since the last analysis. The improvement corresponds to a 1.6% enhancement in its overall score, marking India’s most peaceful standing since the index’s inception.

The report also suggests that the key contributors to India’s progress include reduction of the intensity of internal conflicts, particularly in border regions, and positive shifts in perceptions of criminality and terrorism impact. Despite progress on several fronts, India faces security challenges with neighbouring countries like Pakistan and China.

Bhutan: A Beacon of Peace in South Asia

Bhutan, often regarded as a model of tranquillity, has solidified its position as the most peaceful country in South Asia, ranking 21st globally. With an overall score improvement of 2.6%. Bhutan's Political Terror Scale rating has improved, according to the report, achieving the best possible score, reflecting its commitment to maintaining stability and safety. However, Bhutan's high police-people ratio, nearly 600 police persons per 100,000 people, stands out as an irregularity compared to nations with similar peace levels, even as Bhutan consistently outperforms its regional neighbours in peace metrics.

South Asia’s Mixed Performance

The broader South Asian region remains a challenging landscape for peace, with an average score of 2.336. Afghanistan, ranking 160th, continues to anchor the region at the bottom of the index, reflecting ongoing turmoil under Taliban rule. Nepal ranked 30th globally, and Bangladesh, ranked 93rd, provide a buffer of relative stability. (Bangladesh analysis is perhaps before the government of Sheikh Hasina was toppled.)

Despite these contrasts, South Asia experienced a slight overall decline in peacefulness in 2024. Four of the seven countries in the region saw their scores worsen, driven primarily by a deterioration in the militarisation domain. Reduced contributions to United Nations peacekeeping efforts and rising military expenditures have been key factors.

Nevertheless, there are bright spots. The ongoing conflict and safety and security domains saw modest improvements. Notably, deaths from internal conflicts have declined across several countries, including Afghanistan and Nepal.

Global Trends

The report highlights a concern about the escalation of global conflict. With 56 active conflicts, the most since World War II, resolution mechanisms appear increasingly ineffective. The proportion of conflicts ending in decisive victories dropped from 49% in the 1970s to just 9% in the 2010s, while peace agreements declined from 23% to 4%.

The GPI report highlights that internationalisation of conflict has intensified, with 92 nations now engaged in cross-border hostilities, the highest since the GPI’s inception in 2008. This trend, driven by rising great-power competition and the assertiveness of middle powers, complicates peace negotiations and prolongs violence.

Global Peace in Decline

Global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.56% in 2024, marking the 12th decline in 16 years. This year witnessed the largest number of countries, 97, experiencing declines in peacefulness, compared to 65 that improved.

Most Peaceful Nations

Iceland retained its position as the most peaceful nation globally, joined by Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, and Singapore.

Least Peaceful Nations

Yemen ranked lowest for the first time, followed by Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Ukraine.

The gap between the most and least peaceful nations widened to unprecedented levels, highlighting stark disparities.

Europe

The most peaceful region, home to 8 of the top 10 peaceful countries.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Remains the least peaceful region globally.

North America

Recorded the sharpest regional decline, driven by deteriorations in Canada and the US, though it remains the third most peaceful region.

GPI report suggests that evolving modern conflicts are marked by two dominant trends:

Technological Advancements

Drones and improvised weapons enable non-state actors to challenge larger powers, increasing the complexity of warfare.

Geopolitical Competition

The shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world intensifies competition, prolonging conflicts.

Conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza crisis exemplify these trends highlighting the devastating human cost of prolonged violence.

Economic Impact of Violence

Violence has cost the global economy $19.1 trillion in 2023 as reported by GPI, equivalent to 13.5% of global GDP. Military and internal security expenditures constitute over 74% of this impact. The Ukraine war caused a 30% economic contraction in 2022, while the Syrian civil war slashed GDP by 85%.