Reversal of Roles

The Hindi heartland (read Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) is buzzing with political activity ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The battle lines have already been drawn for the assembly elections in these states. A win or lose is going to be crucial and a possible pointer towards the general elections.

Is it going to be a semi-final round in real sense of the term?

The battle royal is between the political arch-rivals BJP and Congress as there is hardly a third player in these states. The two parties, even before the poll bugle was sounded, have been trying to outwit each other in all possible respects – be it the poll strategy or announcement of candidates.

There is a discernible change in the policies and attitudes of the two parties – whether for good or not, only time will tell, in positioning themselves for the battle. The biggest change has been on two counts- setting the narrative, and laying the ground rules for the contest.

Surprise element of poll preparations in the two camps has been the reversal of roles resulting in shifting of initiative and setting the tone for the other to follow. In the past it used to be the BJP with a well-oiled party machinery and seasoned strategists who used to set the narrative. For some reason, this time around, the initiative has been wrested by the Congress making the BJP a camp follower.

Will it reflect on BJP’s poll prospects or help Congress in ousting the party in Madhya Pradesh and break the jinx by retaining the power in Rajasthan, having tradition of change every five years, and Chhattisgarh?

An interesting battle is developing in these states where BJP has almost made a clean sweep in the last Lok Sabha elections and hoping to remove the feat riding the Modi-factor once again. Will the assembly poll outcome, the ignominy of BJP losing the three states looming large, have a direct bearing on Lok Sabha elections?

Tilting the scales in Congress’s favour are two stark facts that can have a direct impact on creating a favourable poll atmosphere. Firstly, as against in the past elections the BJP this time has been ridden with crisis over candidates’ selection. The fact that sizable number of MPs and union ministers are being fielded by the party, perceived to be a demotion, to contest assembly polls has generated a crisis of a different kind. The dethroning of sitting MLAs and other ticket hopefuls has led to a virtual revolt, previously unheard of in BJP.

On the face of it, it is being touted by the BJP strategists as a strategic move. However, on ground its fall-out is clear and visible, resulting in creating rumblings and disquiet among the rank and file. Will the move, as perceived, really bolster the party’s chances on the hustings is an interesting question in view of the sharp reaction on ground?

Secondly, and more significantly has been the fact that the party has been juggling over the question of projecting a chief ministerial candidate. Should the incumbent be given another chance in Madhya Pradesh, or in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh where the party is out power, should the former chief ministerial faces be brought back in reckoning?

These questions are troubling the BJP a great deal.

It would not be wrong to say that it is for the first time in the last four decades that the BJP is entering elections in Madhya Pradesh without a chief ministerial face. Circa 2003 polls, the party had in this historic election named former Union Minister and symbol of saffron-politics Ms Uma Bharati as the Chief Minister face as early as 10-months before the elections were declared. In subsequent elections also the BJP top brass always contested the election on the face of a chief minister candidate.

And Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan, seemingly not in the goods of Modi-Shah duo, was not only the hotly favoured but was given a free hand in selection of candidates and in matters of campaign. He was solidly backed by the party but not this time around. Intriguingly, the party high command has created competition for Mr Chouhan by expanding the list of chief minister hopefuls. Some might take it as more the merrier but it has added to the confusion.

Fact of the matter is he had, of late, started flexing muscles fearing that he might even be denied the party mandate. It was after his public utterances in a public meeting in presence of Prime Minister Mr Modi that his re-nomination from Budhini constituency was announced the next day.

On the other-hand the Congress with a history of pre-poll jostling, is comparatively having an easy ride this time. The lists of candidates have been quietly announced after detailed discussions at various levels and as far as possible after developing a consensus. For instance, the first list of 40 candidates in Chhatisgarh was the result of this phenomena as in the final outcome a single candidate had emerged for each constituency.

The Congress is hardly encountering any problem on the issue of chief ministerial candidates. The issue seemed to have been done and dusted much before the election process had begun barring a few hiccups in Rajasthan. Mr Kamal Nath has been the chief ministerial candidate in Madhya Pradesh from the day one with hardly any voices of dissent. Although the party has not formally announced chief minister faces in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the incumbents Mr Bhupesh Baghel and Mr Ashok Gehlot respectively are well-entrenched and in the driver’s seat, and leading the campaign.

Compare this to the scenario prevailing in the BJP. Two-time former Rajasthan chief minister and a popular leader Mrs Vasundhara Raje is being forced to sweat it out and fall in line with the high command’s wishes. However, she has refused to budge and is set to dictate terms till the last. It seems unlikely that she will be nominated as the chief minister candidate. The situation has created a strife and air of uncertainty in the Rajasthan BJP.

A similar scenario prevails in Chhattisgarh BJP. Former chief minister and the only towering leader of the party in the state Mr Raman Singh, though nominated to re-contest from his home constituency after initial reluctance, is still in a dilemma. Will he or won’t he be the chief minister candidate in the event of party winning the election?

The Congress, on the other hand and for a change, is upbeat and sounding confident. The confidence exudes from the manner in which its former president and now star campaigner Mr Rahul Gandhi is going around setting the tone and agenda for the election. Unlike in the recent past the Congress is upfront in taking on its arch-rival BJP with Mr Gandhi not desisting even to take pot-shots on Mr Modi alleging his complicity with the Adani group.

This upbeat mood is the outcome of the party’s recent victories in Himachal Pradesh and later Karnataka. Mr Gandhi has taken the battle out of the Hindi belt to even down south in Telangana and the far away North-East state of Mizoram where assembly elections will be held simultaneously.

In Mizoram he made the disturbing developments in the neighbouring Manipur as the fulcrum of his attack on the PM and his government. His focus during a limited version of Bharat Jodo Yatra across Aizawl was to mobilise youth against what he described as BJP’s diabolical plan to challenge the identity of the North-Eastern states “as done in Manipur”. He was able to strike an instantaneous rapport with the people.

Will this translate into votes as Mr Gandhi exudes confidence?