Return of Trump: Revival or Risk for Republicans
US President-elect Donald Trump will return to the Oval Office on January 20th, 2025, as specified by the Constitution. After securing a decisive victory over Kamala Harris, his Democratic rival, Trump now faces a rare second chance to reshape America’s political landscape. Yet the road ahead promises to be rough with challenges, even as his team leaps into action well before Inauguration Day.
In addition, the Republican Party’s victory and dominance extends beyond the White House: The Grand Old Party (GOP) will control the Senate and, possibly, the House of Representatives where they are just short of three seats to the majority. Trump’s win marks a watershed moment, granting Republicans sweeping control over the federal government. The scale of this political shift could offer the next four years for Republicans led by Trump an extraordinary opportunity to drive its agenda with minimal opposition.
To begin with, Trump has tapped seasoned strategist Susie Wiles as his Chief of Staff. Wiles, a key figure in his campaign, played a crucial role in securing victories across several important states. Wiles, who is respected for talking less and believing in action, is the fulcrum of the present team of Trump, keeping all folks and leaders of Republicans united. Wiles’s immediate appointment, just a day after the election, signals the urgency and ambition of Trump’s return and their list of officer bearers ready for action. Trump’s transition team is laying the groundwork for an aggressive agenda, on delivering a “safe, secure, and affordable” future for Americans.
Trump won in highly competitive seven battleground states that changed the shape of the election results highlighting the concerns of the citizens over inflation, rising crime, and anxieties about cultural shifts. In all this campaigning, an ally in this endeavour was the richest man on the earth, Elon Musk, whose vocal support helped Trump to win key constituencies.
Trump, in his victory speech, acknowledged Musk’s influence. There is speculation that Trump might appoint Musk to lead a new “Department of Government Efficiency, “or “DOGE,” a nod to the meme cryptocurrency popularised by Musk. For Musk, Trump’s presidency could be more beneficial for both political and business gains. With a close ally in the White House and his influence, Musk could secure a firmer foothold in government contracts, especially in areas tied to national security and defence, where SpaceX already plays a dominant role in US space and satellite launches.
Despite Trump’s and Republicans’ sweeping victory and domestic massive expectations, Trump’s second term is set to unfold against a backdrop of global uncertainty. While he may hope to prioritise domestic issues, the international landscape fraught with tensions, and crevices, that have only deepened in recent years will need watchful attention. How Trump and his team navigate these external challenges will likely define his presidency abroad as much as his efforts to “restore American greatness” at home.
Trump’s Foreign Policy
In his last tenure as President, Trump’s foreign policy style was often seen as unpredictable. However, his present approach has typically emphasised “America First” nationalism, scepticism towards alliances, and hardball tactics in negotiations. Now after his return to President, the world expects a reversion and solution to these themes. The world has only grown more volatile and unpredictable like the Ukraine conflict, escalating tensions in West Asia or the Middle East, that need urgent attention, and challenges that may test Trump’s course of action.
Ukraine and NATO
Trump in his election campaign repeatedly claimed that he could end the Ukraine war within “24 hours”. Political analysts say that the statement reflects his belief in personal diplomacy over institutional processes. As the Russia-Ukraine war drags into its third year, European allies are worried that under Trump, there will be reduced U.S. commitment, fearing a more transactional style that might compromise Western unity against Russia. NATO, now expanded to 32 members, remains a key deterrent against Russia, but Trump’s history of criticising the alliance as a drain on American resources raises questions about its future cohesion. While some believe his stance may simply be a negotiating tactic to press Europe for increased defence spending.
Israel, Iran, and Beyond - West Asia Conundrum
West Asia or the Middle East presents another quagmire. We all remember how Trump’s first tenure as President was inclined towards a strong pro-Israel stance, that not only included relocating the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem but also brokering the Abraham Accords.
However, the renewed conflict between Israel and Hamas, which has led to bloodshed and use of heavy weaponry, displacement of millions and UNRAW’s increasing role, that Trump’s previous tenure had stopped aiding UNRAW, along with rising regional tensions, complicates any simplistic solutions. Trump has promised to bring “peace,” implying a resolution to both the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah conflicts. His confidence is rooted in his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, which he believes deterred attacks during his presidency. At the present juncture, how Trump is going to maintain his relations with the Gulf partners or Iran could be the new strategy anticipated to bring immediate relief or a ceasefire. However, more aggressive actions against Iranian interests or further sanctions could further flare up regional tensions.
China, Trade Wars and Military Tensions
China cannot be ignored in Trump’s foreign policy, despite his commitment and rhetoric of “America First” as his party’s domestic doctrine. Trump’s first term as President, contained a trade war marked by tariffs and economic sanctions, which strained U.S.-China relations. How Trump is going to take the stand against China, remains to be seen. Trump is likely to increase efforts to curtail Chinese influence, from limiting tech exports to reinforcing naval presence in the South China Sea. However, this approach again risks aggravating trade tensions that may not necessarily stabilise relations with China, which continues to remain a major economic partner of the US.
Again, on the Taiwan issue, what will be the future? Will Trump threaten economic retaliation against China if it attempts a blockade or wage a limited war against Taiwan? The political pundits suggest that perhaps Trump’s preference will be putting economic pressure over military intervention. This could deter Beijing, but it also risks provoking a backlash, further destabilising the region.
India - An Ally with Caveats
In all this maze of difficulties, where diplomatic solutions are laid with political landmines, deterring any global solutions, India perhaps stands out as a potential bright spot in Trump’s foreign policy playbook. The relationship between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the first tenure remained warm and developing. The relationship then was more on counterbalancing China and enhancing economic ties. However, Modi’s recent overtures towards China after nearly five years of confrontation, along with increasing trade with Russia and Iran, might complicate this partnership too.
Even though India will be the host country next year for the QUAD summit, Trump’s focus on reducing immigration and protecting U.S. jobs could clash with India’s desire to deepen economic ties and secure more visas for its skilled workforce.
Despite these challenges, the strategic value of India as a counterweight to China is likely to keep the partnership intact, though not without friction. Issues like tariffs and immigration and now India’s worst relationship with Canada could flare up, but both nations have a shared interest in maintaining a stable Indo-Pacific, which might drive cooperation on defence and counterterrorism.
Navigating a Divided World
Trump’s ability to push through his legislative agenda seems more assured than ever. Deregulation, tax cuts, and judicial and official appointments will likely be accelerated with fewer checks from the opposition. However, for Trump in the next couple of years, the main challenge will lie in maintaining a gentle equilibrium between domestic demands, expectations and ambitions and the growing uncertainty in the surroundings, where despite the reluctance of the United States the external situation will demand and rope in the United States and its foreign policy. This balancing act in the first tenure of Trump was not there. Will there be a lucid strategy now to counter it, remains still uncertain. On the other hand, Trump, if driven by his instinct for unilateral action and scepticism of traditional alliances, can bring turbulence to the global stage. His confrontational stance towards both rivals and long-time partners needs to remain in check or it threatens international stability that has increased in the last three years.
Three Big Ifs
Can Trump Balance Domestic Priorities with Global Realities?
How Far Will Trump Go to Counter China’s Rise?
What Will Trump’s Legacy Be?
The political analysts and the analysis that are appearing in the media post-Trump victory have several unanswered questions surrounding Trump’s second term. Trump’s approach so far is seen as sceptical of alliances, confrontational towards rivals, and unilateral in decision-making that may appeal to his core supporters but could strain the very frameworks that have underpinned global stability for decades.
Trump’s election campaign has promised to revive the economy through tax cuts and deregulation. Chances are US and its allies might face budgetary constraints if military spending surges, particularly if U.S. entanglements in Ukraine or the Middle East deepen. That will directly affect domestic priorities. Will Trump’s budget priorities align with his “America First” vision?
Regarding China, it is a testing time for Trump. Beijing is already getting bolder in its economic and military ambitions. Key questions remain about how aggressively Trump will enforce trade barriers or expand its military presence in Asia, and the Indo-Pacific to counter China that could deepen economic and diplomatic divides.
Trump’s if continues to have preference for bilateral dealings over multilateral engagements, it could further strain alliances, and bring division with European partners anxious about the continuity of U.S. support against Russia. Moreover, Trump’s impression of hawkish posture towards China will be scrutinised repeatedly, as Beijing’s forcefulness grows.
Grand Old Party’s return and Trump’s return to the White House is seen as yet another chance for Republicans to strengthen their legacy, but with Trump’s only one term remaining, the clock is ticking. His second presidency will hinge on whether he opts for bold, transformative reforms or chases immediate, populist victories. The outcome will set the stage for 2028, shaping the Republican’s future course, and possibly redefining the American political landscape.
Trump’s administration and the Republican Party stand at the threshold of sweeping policy shifts across domestic and international arenas, but the stakes are enormous. The global environment is more interconnected and volatile than it was in 2016.
Trump’s vision for his second term will depend on how effectively he manages these complex challenges. He has to walk cautiously. Will Trump’s leadership foster economic revival and strengthen U.S. alliances, or deepen divisions at home and abroad? As the world watches, the success or failure of his political comeback will reverberate far beyond America’s borders, defining not just his legacy but the curves and outlines of global power in the years to come.
Author is National Editor, Greater Kashmir.
