Return of Covid

Covid 19 is back in the news. According to figures on the website of Ministry of Health the number of active covid 19 cases through the country on the morning of December 21 was 2669. An increase of 358 cases occurred between December 20 morning and December 21 morning. During this 24-hour period 230 covid 19 patients recovered. The number of deaths during this period due to covid 19 were 6. Of these 3 occurred in Kerala and 2 in Karnataka. The highest number of cases are in Kerala followed by Karnataka in the case load.

Reports indicate that the spread of the virus is because of its JN.1 sub-variant of the Omicron variant. The JN.1 sub-variant is being regarded as very infectious; hence, there is the danger of it spreading very fast in the population. At the same time, it is, at least for the time being, not showing signs of being lethal except in old people, especially if they are suffering from co-morbidities. In view of the size of India’s population any infection which is capable of spreading quickly in vast sections of the people has to be taken seriously. This is because it would inevitably increase the number of patients requiring hospitalization. That would put a strain on the health system.

It is good that the Central and some State governments have moved with alacrity on this issue. Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya held a virtual meeting with the State Health ministers to check on Covid-19 preparedness on December 20. He asked all concerned authorities in the health sector to remain alert, especially regarding new variants of covid 19. Mandaviya’s meeting should obviously not sow doubts, leave alone panic in the public mind. It is, however, essential for the people to realise that a new, highly infectious strain, has entered the country and they should now be on their guard. That means that basic precautions such as wearing masks, maintaining social distance and the maintenance of covid 19 hygiene should be followed. The Karnataka authorities have asked the people to take these precautions though, at the time I write these lines, they have not imposed any restrictions on people congregating in public places during the upcoming festivities.

A few days ago, the World Health Organisation (WHO) while classifying the JN.1 sub-variant as a ‘variant of interest’ stated “Based on the available evidence, the additional global public health risk posed by JN.1 is currently evaluated as low”. The problem is that the WHO’s record in the handling of covid 19 has been far from exemplary. This was especially so regarding the way it conducted itself in December 2019 and in the first two months of 2020. It was by then becoming increasingly clear that the world was confronted with a new virulent zoonotic virus which had begun in China. The Chinese were less than forthcoming of the looming global danger but it also true that instead of pressing alarm bells and publicly calling on them to come clean on the new danger the WHO leadership indulged them. It was only on March 11, 2020 that the WHO declared covid 19 as a pandemic. By that time, it had spread to many parts of the world and begun to take a toll in human lives. It brought the world to a standstill. Perhaps if the WHO leadership had acted more purposefully at the initial stages the total toll which covid 19 extracted from humankind could have been reduced. A month ago, the WHO reported “As of November 19, 2023 over 772 million confirmed cases and over 6 million deaths have been reported globally”. The fact is that the actual number of cases and deaths may have more than these statistics.

The countries currently showing an increase in covid 19 cases most likely because of the JN.1 sub-variant are Singapore, US, China and India. It has also been identified in other countries such as Britain. While the health authorities of all countries are now better placed to handle covid 19 the fact is that the spread of the JN.1 sub-variant once again highlights the need for far greater international cooperation on health issues. This also relates to pandemics. All countries, particularly the major ones, must realise that pandemics have occurred throughout history and have caused great suffering. Sometimes, they have changed the course of human affairs. Now with the global population crossing 8 billion the potential of damage to humankind has only increased. Hence, true global cooperation without considerations of national prestige is needed to prevent pandemics and, if they occur, to combat them swiftly through a set of globally accepted policies. These will naturally have to be somewhat flexible to take into account the situation of all countries. However, the way in which each country sought to devise its own methods of handling covid 19 added to its severity and its devastating impact on the global economy and human welfare.

Is it naïve to consider that the major countries can come together to chalk out plans of action to handle health emergencies and pandemics in a holistic manner in the future? Further, even if such plans are made will they adhere to them? Certainly, the principal world powers record on climate change can hardly give the confidence that they will do either. Despite all the hoopla of COP 28 signaling the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era the fact is that the fossil fuel era will continue for a long time. Thus, the chances of the world unitedly combating any new global emergency on account of covid 19—which is only a remote possibility---or a future pandemic are unfortunately very low.