Re-balancing of global power

US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met on November 15 in California on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. The meeting which lasted four hours was perhaps the most significant bilateral diplomatic engagement of this year. This is because a rising and aggressive China is posing the greatest challenge to the largely US crafted World Order put in place in 1945 after the end of the Second World War. There is great global need to manage the consequent disturbance and disruption which are and will continue to arise out of the re-balancing of world-wide power. As the last face to face meeting of the two leaders was on the margins of the 2022 G20 Bali summit there was naturally great focus on the Biden-Xi Jinping summit.

The statements issued by the White House and the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the summit offer an insight on the approaches of the two leaders to their bilateral ties and on current international issues. These official statements should be carefully read especially by diplomats and students of international affairs because they show that both countries are firmly rooted in their basic desires. Biden told Xi Jinping that the two countries are in “competition” which has to be managed “responsibly to prevent it from veering into conflict, confrontation, or a new Cold War”. On his part the Chinese President rejected the idea of competition. As the Chinese statement noted “Major country competition cannot solve the problems facing China, the United States or the world”. Indeed, he called for cooperation and the US not to “scheme to suppress and contain China”.

Significantly, Xi Jinping took recourse to mentioning two principles to Biden that were urged by the Chinese with India during the early part of the century and later too. These were that there was enough space for the two countries to grow and that differences should not become disputes. As Xi Jinping told Biden “The world is big enough to accommodate both countries, and one country’s success is an opportunity for the other”. And, again, in an echo to what India was told, disagreements should not become chasms. The events of 2020 showed China’s true intentions towards India and the US would doubtless have noted the unreliability of Chinese professions.

The fact is that the US, China and the world at large are aware that the US is going to do all that it considers necessary to preserve its pre-eminent global position and the Chinese will do all they think is required to enhance their strength to challenge that pre-eminence. At the same time the two countries are conscious of the need of careful management of differences and even conflicts because war is impossible to contemplate in an age of weapons of mass destruction. Indeed, for the US even Cold War poses great dangers of getting out of hand as it knows from its experience of its Cold War with the Soviet Union.

Recognizing imperative of maintaining constant communications between the militaries of the two countries that Biden and Xi Jinping decided as the White House statement noted “The two leaders welcomed the resumption of high-level military-to-military communication as well as the US-China Defence Policy Coordination talks…”. The question which remains is how useful would these communications really be because of the fundamental differences between the two countries on South China Sea where the US and its allies are determined to put into practice that freedom of navigation is not merely a principle on paper. This is all the more relevant because China through its actions is determined to take practical steps to harass those who challenge its position and actions on the South China sea.

Biden and Xi Jinping are aware that their cooperation is needed in some areas such as climate change to prevent catastrophic situations for humanity. But nothing is ever straight forward in the arena of international relations. Even climate change mitigation and adaptation is enmeshed in power politics and hence for all the fine words that the two Presidents may express it is unlikely that either of them will be willing to take steps at the cost of their national economies which are the bedrock of their national strength to really control the emission of greenhouse gases to prevent the rise of global temperatures to over 1.5% Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Where it is more likely that US and China my cooperate is in regulating Artificial Intelligence. This is because the leadership of no country wishes to take risks where the AI can interfere with decision-making on questions of international peace and security. Here again cooperation will not be without great difficulties because both will want their systems of control to prevail.

Significantly, while Biden mentioned that US assistance to Ukraine against Russian aggression will continue and supported “Israel’s right to defend itself against terrorism” the Chinese Foreign Ministry statement is silent on how Xi Jinping responded. It merely notes “The two heads of states exchanged views on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and other international and regional issues of mutual concern”. While the Arabs and the Islamic world will see that Xi Jinping did not even mention the humanitarian conditions in Gaza consequent to the Israeli action in response to the Hamas attack of October 7, the Russians will not be happy their great friend did not seek to show support for President Putin at all. This is not surprising for Xi Jinping is concerned with China’s interests.

The true results of this important Biden-Xi Jinping meeting will get known through the actions on the ground of the two countries in the coming months.