Quad: After 20 years

The foreign ministers of India, Australia, Japan and the United States issued a joint statement on December 31 to mark the ‘20^th anniversary of Quad Cooperation”. These four countries are member-states of the grouping. The joint statement recalled that the four had come together “in response to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami” and its object was “service to the people of our region for the first time as the grouping now known as the Quad. The tsunami was one of the worst disasters in history, claiming the lives of nearly a quarter million people and displacing 1.7 million across 14 countries. Together our four countries contributed over 40,000 emergency responders, working with other partners across the Indo-Pacific region to support millions of people affected by the catastrophe”.

Over the past two decades Quad has become an important grouping in the Indo-Pacific region. Its claim that its “foundational commitment to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief remains strong” maybe true but the region and world perceives that the real purpose of Quad is to ensure that Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific remains within limits. The Quad countries know that there is no way in which they can eliminate China from the region for it is perceived as a power which is competing with the US not only in the Indo-Pacific but the world over. In fact its presence has become strengthened throughout the Indo-Pacific; China has extended its maritime Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to the different regions of the South Pacific—Micronesia, Melanesia and Polynesia.

In all these small island countries China has undertaken infrastructure projects and given loans and grants. It has obviously not done for altruistic reasons but to enhance its economic and security interests. The Indo-Pacific island states are aware that the US and the other Quad powers do not appreciate the ingress of China. However, the island countries need assistance and some of the leaders of these states have made it known to their Quad counterparts that though they may have misgivings about China they cannot deprive their peoples of the advantages of its assistance.

Conscious of this fact the Quad countries are trying to undertake different forms of assistance to the Indo-Pacific island countries as well as the states in other parts of the region. As the Joint Statement notes “What began as an emergency response to a catastrophe has grown into a full-fledged partnership delivering positive outcomes for the people of our region. Quad countries now work together and with partners across the Indo-Pacific to address complex challenges, from fighting climate change, cancer, and pandemics, to bolstering quality infrastructure, maritime domain awareness, STEM education, counter-terrorism efforts, critical and emerging technologies, and cyber security. Since 2021, the Leaders of our four nations have met annually to drive the Quad’s positive contributions across South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific”.

It is good that the Quad countries have extended their assistance programmes across such a vast range. The fact, however, remains that it is never easy for the four countries to effectively co-ordinate their efforts and make delivery efficient. They will have to create effective cooperative mechanisms among themselves and with the island states and other countries so that all these countries do not feel that the Quad talks but does not deliver results as well as the Chinese do.

Quad’s journey over the past two decades has really been in response to China’s rise and its aggressive desire to develop a dominating influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Its quest for this purpose has not been constrained by international law and norms. It has demonstrated that it is willing to ignore these whenever its interests so demanded.

This has been clearly seen in the South China Sea where it has thrown decisions of international tribunals to the wind when they went against it. Quad continuously focuses on the need to adhere to international norms and in the context of the South China Sea to the freedom of navigation. This was again reiterated in the joint statement. It noted, “As four partners, we share a vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific that is peaceful, stable, and prosperous, underpinned by effective regional institutions. We reaffirm our unwavering support for ASEAN’s centrality and unity as well as mainstreaming and implementation of the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. We respect Pacific-led regional architecture, foremost the Pacific Islands Forum. We are also steadfast in our support for the Indian Ocean Rim Association, the region’s premier organization”.

Quad has a quasi-military dimension; its navies conduct exercises, Japan and Australia are allies of the US and India’s relationship has substantially grown with the US in the defence sector. It has signed all the foundational agreements required by the US for this purpose. China has constantly spoken negatively about this dimension of Quad and has asserted that it will not constrain its policy towards the Indo-Pacific by Quad. Yet, there can be no doubt that it cannot ignore it especially as many Indo-Pacific countries are happy that Quad may be helpful to them to prevent China adopting coercive means against them.

That the US want Quad to flourish is without doubt. However, it is not relying on Quad alone. Indeed, it can be argued that by developing AUKUS the US is essentially relying on its Anglo-Saxon allies. Under AUKUS the US is giving technology to Australia to construct nuclear powered submarines which will naturally be capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

India should continue with Quad but it has to be conscious, as the only member of the grouping with a long contested land boundary with China it will eventually have to rely on its own resources to counter the northern neighbour.