Prediction Times: Moon Sighting & Timeline
The Crescent shall be visible at the sunset of 30.03.2025, meaning Eid Al-Fitr in the Indian Subcontinent shall fall on 31.03.2025
11:35 PM Mar 28, 2025 IST
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Er. Ghulam Nabi Mir
Representational image
This is Eid time again and an occasion set for making some predictions about the Gregorian date on which the festival is going to fall. The current lunar month, holy month of Ramadan (9th one in Islamic Hijri Calendar), is approaching its closure and Eid Al-Fitr shall fall on the first day of next lunar month Shawwal. As per the rules prescribed in Islamic Shariah, the conclusion of the current lunar month and the commencement of the next one at a certain place is marked by the physical sighting of the young waxing crescent, just after the local sunset.
The event is a magnificent manifestation of an astronomical event and needs application of all relevant scientific fields like astronomy, optical physics and spherical trigonometry by the observation team. In this write up, prediction regarding the Gregorian date on which Eid Al-Fitr shall fall in countries of Indian Subcontinent and those of Middle East, has been made on the basis of interpretation of available Astronomical Data using the ever reliable ancient Babylonian Criterion. As per this Criterion, sighting of a young waxing crescent through naked eyes at a local sunset under favourable weather conditions is possible if the age of the crescent is 24 Hours or more and the moon-set takes place a minimum of 48 minutes after the sunset.
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The age of the newly born crescent is taken from the instant of the occurrence of Astronomical Conjunction, an event under which the lunar surface carries no illumination instantaneously and remains dark/invisible. The next Astronomical Conjunction shall occur on 29.03.2025 at 16.27 H Indian Standard Time. The table hereunder carries all relevant astronomical data for making moon sighting predictions in respect of 10 Cities located in the Indian Subcontinent and Middle East.
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Prediction conclusions on the basis of Data Interpretation
| City/ Country | Local Lunar Conjunction Time on 29.03.2025 | Local Sunset Timing On 29.3.25 | Local MoonsetTiming On 29.3.25 | Local MoonsetTiming On 30.3.25 | Babylonian Visibility Criterion as applied at the Sunset of 29.03.2025 | Babylonian Visibility Criterion as applied at the Sunset of 30.03.2025 | |||||
| Age of Crescent@ Sunset | Moonset after Sunset Lag | Probability of Sighting Crescent | Age of Crescent@ Sunset | Moonset after Sunset Lag | Probability of Sighting Crescent | ||||||
| New Delhi India | 16.27 H | 18.37 H | 18.39 H | 19.48 H | 2 H, 22 M | 2 M | NIL | 26 H, 22 M | 71 M | Very High | |
| Mumbai India | 16.27 H | 18.51 H | 18.53 H | 19.56 H | 2 H, 24 M | 2 M | NIL | 26 H, 24 M | 65 M | Very High | |
| Srinagar India | 16.27 H | 18.49 H | 18.52 H | 20.05 H | 2 H, 22 M | 3 M | NIL | 26 H, 22 M | 76 M | Very High | |
| Kozhikode India | 16.27 H | 18.37 H | 18.37 H | 19.36 H | 2 H, 10 M | 0 | NIL | 26 H, 10 M | 59 M | Very High | |
| Dhaka Bangladesh | 16.57 H | 18.12 H | 18.11 H | 19.17 H | 1 H, 15 M | 0 | NIL | 25 H, 15 M | 65 M | Very High | |
| Islamabad Pakistan | 15.57 H | 18.26 H | 18.29 H | 19.42 H | 2 H, 29 M | 3 M | NIL | 26 H, 29 M | 76 M | Very High | |
| Kabul Afghanistan | 15.27 H | 18.11 H | 18.16 H | 19.30 H | 2 H, 44 M | 5 M | NIL | 26 H, 44 M | 79 M | Very High | |
| Tehran Iran | 14.24 H | 18.23 H | 18.31 H | 19.46 H | 3 H, 56 M | 8 M | NIL | 27 H, 56 M | 83 M | Very High | |
| Dubai UAE | 14.57 H | 18.33 H | 18.39 H | 19.46 H | 3 H, 36 M | 6 M | NIL | 27 H, 36 M | 73 M | Very High | |
| Makkah Tul MukarramahSaudi Arabia | 13.57 H | 18.34 H | 18.42 H | 19.47 H | 4 H, 37 M | 8 M | NIL | 28 H, 37 M | 73 M | Very High | |
- INDIAN SUBCONTINENT
On the evening of 29.03.2025, at respective sunsets, the two parameters of age of crescent and (moon-set after sunset)lag time for all seven projected cities, located in the Indian subcontinent, are far below the prescribed values of 24 Hours and 48 Minutes. Hence no chances of sighting of the new Crescent in the evening of 29.03.2025. The Crescent shall be visible at the sunset of 30.03.2025, meaning Eid Al-Fitr in the Indian Subcontinent shall fall on 31.03.2025.
- MIDDLE EAST
As was the case for Indian Subcontinental Cities, the age of Crescent and time lag of Moon-set after sunset are both on a very lower side than the requisite values prescribed in the Babylonian Criterion. Hence the Shawwal moon cannot be sighted in the evening of 29.03.2025 in Makkah Tul Mukarramah or in Dubai or in Tehran. Hence the Eid Al-Fitr in the Middle East should also fall on 31.03.2025 as per the Islamic Shariah requirement of physical sighting. However, Saudi Arabia makes use of what is called the Um Al-Qura Calendar which takes the day, next to the day in which Astronomical Conjunction has taken place, as the first day of new lunar month and has obviously no dependence on the physical sighting of crescent. Applying Um Al-Qura rule, which is understandably non-compliant to Shariah requirements, yields that Saudi Arabia shall celebrate Eid on 30.03.2025.
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