Power, Ego and the Truth

It has been over six months since Donald Trump assumed the US Presidency for the second time. After his election victory in November 2024 and, even during the election campaign, he had assured the American people that he would immediately end the Ukraine War and the Gaza conflict. Both are far from over. Trump has virtually lost interest in Gaza. He is, however, getting increasingly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump wants him to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Russian leader is showing no interest to accept one because he is unwilling to abandon his war aims. He is therefore ignoring Trump’s threats of imposing greater sanctions on Russia. That should lead a rational man to accept that there are limits to power. That is so even if one holds the most powerful office in the world like Trump currently does. However, the US President has such an enormous ego that he is unwilling to accept this truth.

Putin’s war aims have been clear since the past few years. He does not want Ukraine to ever become a member of the European Union leave alone NATO. Indeed, what he really wishes is that it should, once again, and thereafter, always remain, in the Russian sphere of influence. Furthermore, he wants Ukraine, and the rest of the world, to accept Russia’s amalgamation of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zheporizhzhia. Neither Ukraine, nor the rest of the international community, are willing to agree to what Putin wants. This is because it would mean that a more powerful state—indeed one of the Permanent Members of the Security Council would have the right to formally and forcefully acquire the territory of a foreign sovereign state through invasion. That would mean the collapse of the present world order.

Trump wants hostilities between Russia and Ukraine to end so that he could proclaim that he has ended the war. He does not care that a ceasefire would lead to Russian de-facto control of territory under its control and Ukraine accepting its loss. The conflict would then become frozen even if minor military action occurs from time to time. Earlier, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was unwilling to accept a ceasefire for it would mean a de-facto partition of his country and the permanent loss of Ukrainian territory. But Trump brutally coerced him to accept this position. Zelenskyy did so because he knew that whatever the European states may say, or the promises they may make, they were in no position to financially and militarily sustain Ukraine in the long term.  Hence, Ukraine could not do without US support even if the price Trump was demanding meant that he had to drink from a poisoned chalice.

Trump had hoped that once the Ukrainians would agree to a ceasefire so would the Russians. For that would mean that they would remain in possession of the territory they controlled. As a real-estate business person Trump naturally thinks in terms of possession being the most important part where land is concerned. This is particularly so if there is no power that can eject a person or an entity from that land. What he had not reckoned with is that Putin wants a formalization of his occupation of all the areas that he has amalgamated into Russia. Some of these areas are not under the control of Russian forces. Hence, a formal acceptance of Putin’s demand would mean that Ukraine withdraws its forces from these areas. Putin also wants guarantees that Ukraine would not join either the EU or NATO. Trump had not anticipated such intransigence from Putin. Hence, his anger against him has grown; he has begun to invectives filled language against Putin. Clearly, Trump and his advisors had misread Putin.

Trump is now seeking to tighten the screws against Putin by putting pressure on countries that continue to do business with Russia. His has announced that he would impose penalties against Indian exports to the US because India continues to buy Russian energy. This flows from his frustration in persuading Putin to accept a ceasefire with Ukraine. These pressures through third countries will not break Putin’s will. Nor will the Russian people turn against Putin even if they have to face great economic hardships. This is because a large section of the Russian people agree with Putin’s attitude towards Ukraine. They believe that the Ukrainian leaders have unjustifiably broken the bonds that tied their country historically to Russia. Naturally many Ukrainians have a completely different understanding of historical developments. They believe that they have the right to strike a path of their choice and history cannot be a constraint to their development and exercise of their will.

Amidst all this, European countries have realised that they have to take much greater ownership of their security. This is not only on account of the Russian invasion of Ukraine but also because of Trump’s demand that Europe should contribute far more to NATO.  In his first term he had shown enormous impatience with Europe’s reluctance to spend more on defense. Now, Europe has decided to do so even if that means that it will have less to spend on foreign assistance or its own social security. Whether this will result in European demands that US alone cannot take decisions on Western security remains to be seen.

Uncertain and messy times lie ahead for European countries. The easy way of life they have pursued under a US security umbrella may not be possible anymore.