Policy Puzzle: J&K faces aging wave | Latest sample survey flags baby bust, longevity boom

Srinagar, Sep 14: The Sample Survey Report (SRS) 2023, released earlier this week, has revealed the outlines of J&K’s changing demographics.

The sharp decline in birth rate, the falling death rate, and the strides in decreasing infant mortality rate (IMR) are reshaping the population dynamics, the changes necessitating a relook at public health policies.

In urban J&K, the birth rate has fallen to 12.2 per 1000, the SRS bulletin released on 4 September notes.

The data pertains to 2023.

The overall birth rate noted in the survey is 14.4 for J&K.

The rural parts of J&K have a birth rate of 16, slightly higher than the urban.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of J&K has been calculated as approximately 1.5, with these figures, far below the replacement level of 2.1.

Replacement level is the rate of birth at which the population of a place remains stable, without decline.

The TFR in J&K is markedly lower than the national average of 1.9 in 2023.

Overall all-India birth rate has also declined significantly from 21.4 in 2013.

Various health surveys have shown J&K’s birth rate dropping from 18.6 per 1000 in 2008-2010 to 15 by 2018-2020, and now to 14.4.

The consistent decline, steeper than the national 14 percent reduction over a decade, points towards a fast demographic transition.

This implies a shrinking youth population over the coming decades and a potential to reduce the labour force, predicted by the 2040s.

The old-age dependency ratio will increase to over 25 percent by 2050, as per the estimates.

The death rate in J&K has decreased to 5.6 per 1000 population in 2023, with rural and urban areas both at 5.6 and 5.5.

Compared to India’s national rate of 6.4, this is significantly low.

As per records, J&K’s death rate has fallen from approximately 6.8 in 2015 to 5.6.

The dip is attributed to improved healthcare and sanitation.

The current life expectancy in J&K is 74.3 years, ahead of the national life expectancy of 70 years.

However, the gains in life expectancy signal an aging population.

By 2050, J&K’s elderly population is expected to increase significantly, with a parallel increase in healthcare costs.

The bulletin has put J&K’s IMR to 14 per 1000 live births in 2023.

The fact that J&K’s IMR is consistent across rural and urban areas shows an equitable healthcare delivery system.

J&K IMR is well below the national IMR of 25 in 2023.

This places J&K among the top performers like Tamil Nadu (14) and far ahead of Uttar Pradesh (37).

The uniform decline in IMR across rural and urban places and across genders can be linked to nearly total institutional births and improved neonatal care.