One-on-one, in Alaska
As I write these lines, the world’s eyes are on US President Donald Trump’s proposed meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on August 15 at a military base in Alaska. It is ironic that the meeting is taking place in a part of US territory which was sold by Russia to the US in 1867 for US $ 7.2 million. As Alaska time is 13.30 hours behind Indian time, the meeting’s results will only be known in India, not before the early morning of August 16. This much, though, is certain: the one-on-one meeting itself would give Putin great satisfaction. That it is taking place on US soil would add to the feeling, even if the meeting is in Alaska. This is because the West, including the United States had come down on him very heavily for invading Ukraine. He had become a pariah for them. The West had imposed additional sanctions against Russia following the invasion.
In an unprecedented action the International Criminal Court had issued warrants for Putin’s arrest. They still stand but as the US is not a party to the Court, it can ignore them. The US authorities themselves have issued special exemptions from any detention for any member of Putin’s delegation who may be normally disallowed to enter their territory. Finally, Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, would never have met Putin in the manner in which Trump is doing—he pursued conventional diplomacy while Trump has disdain for the norms of time-tested ways of inter-state interaction.
Trump is hoping to reach a ‘deal’ with Putin on the Russian-Ukrainian war which began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Indeed, during the election campaign Trump often boasted that had he been President, Putin would not have dared to attack Ukraine. He also boasted that he would end the war in no time. However, his words have been empty rhetoric. Now, he appears chastened, as his administration and he are trying to temper expectations of the results of the meeting. Also, he has had a virtual meeting on August 13 with European leaders arranged by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy went to Berlin to meet Merz and joined the meeting. Among the other countries at the virtual meeting were France and Britain.
Ukraine and Europe too were worried that Trump may make great concessions to make Putin agree to a ceasefire. Their concerns increased when Trump said that a “swap” of territories may take place between Ukraine and Russia to end hostilities. However, at the virtual meeting, Trump assured Zelenskyy and the European leaders that issues relating to territory would only be discussed between Russia and Ukraine. He also said, after the virtual meeting, that his objective is to set the ‘table’ for a subsequent Putin-Zelenskyy meet and that he could be there if they want him to be present. He also warned Putin that he should be prepared for very stiff action against Russia if he persisted in wanting the war to go on.
On his part, Zelenskyy made a few points regarding what was agreed at the virtual meeting in a social media post. A leading international news agency mentioned that Zelenskyy stated; “Everything concerning Ukraine must be discussed exclusively with Ukraine. We must prepare a trilateral format for talks. There must be a ceasefire. There must be security guarantees – truly reliable ones. Russia cannot have a veto over Ukraine’s European and NATO prospects. Sanctions against Russia will be strengthened if there is no agreement on ceasefire with Putin on Friday. An immediate ceasefire will be the “central topic” of discussions between Putin and Trump”.
Zelenskyy’s words indicate that he is willing that Trump should be present if conversations take place between Putin and him. Trump himself would very much like that because he always projects himself as the great peacemaker. Indeed, if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is reached and is sustained—Trump is willing for the US to be one of its guarantors—he would consider it worthy of getting the Nobel Peace Prize. Pakistan has already nominated him for one but naturally not in the Russia-Ukraine context. Trump will be miffed with Putin if he does not agree to a ceasefire; hence, Zelenskyy is right on sanctions.
Where Zelenskyy and the European leaders would be greatly deluding themselves is on Putin agreeing that Ukraine, as a sovereign country, has the right to join the European Union and NATO. Indeed, one of the major causes of the war was Russia’s apprehension that the eastward expansion of EU and NATO may extend to Ukraine. That is completely unacceptable to Russia. The fact is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine delivered a blow to the European order. Biden was one with Europe that it must be restored and that Putin’s aggression must be rolled back so that no territorial expansion takes place on its account. Trump is a realist and he realises that Ukraine will have to cede territory for peace. He has no interest in preserving the core principles that have upheld the European order. His instincts do not dwell on principles but on finding ways of achieving his objective. In this case it is a ceasefire. He wants Putin to indicate to him that he is willing to abandon some of his war aims and agree on a ceasefire.
Trump looks for deals and the deal he wants from Putin is a cessation of violence. That may result in a frozen conflict and the closing of any chance of restoring European order. That is of no consequence for Trump.
