Omar Abdullah's Tightrope Walk
After a successful assembly election victory, Omar Abdullah and his party met Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha on Friday to stake a claim to form the next government in Jammu and Kashmir. Omar was elected leader of the NC legislative party on Thursday. The oath-taking ceremony is likely to take place on Wednesday, October 16.
The National Conference's complete majority victory, in alliance with the Congress and now newly elected independent entrants joining the party, was unexpected given that most exit polls predicted a hung assembly. This landslide was the first primary election in a decade and the first since the region's autonomy was revoked in 2019. Despite this victory, Omar and his colleagues will need to maintain their strength and faith that brought them to victory.
Omar, the newly designated Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, is following in the footsteps of his father and grandfather. Omar's grandfather, Sheikh Abdullah, was a revered figure in the state's political history. It may seem like an accepted continuance of the Abdullah family's political legacy, however, Omar's task ahead is far more complex than his predecessors.
Omar will be the chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir for the second time, but in his second tenure, he will have to reset his style of working as presently, past six years of central rule in J&K, with the introduction of the reorganisation bill, with likely no decision-making powers on the issues like law and order and policing, Omar will have to adapt and learn new ways of leading the region as he continues to wait for the State status of J&K. He will require massive cooperation rather than confrontation with the Lt Governor of J&K. His leadership will be on the test at every step, requiring delicate steps forward, manoeuvring through a minefield of scattered political pressures, massive public expectations, and a deeply divided electorate of Jammu and valley. Omar's road ahead is far from easy.
Challenges
The BJP, dominant in the Jammu region, much closer to the Lt Governor, will push for its own interests and a larger share of power as they will be a strong opposition. Omar cannot afford to alienate this region. The party will demand a substantial share of influence, primarily as the BJP's voter base in Jammu and surroundings has grown over recent years.
If something goes wrong or is seen as biased, Omar's government could quickly be framed as anti-Jammu or anti-Hindu, which could stir a campaign against him. Omar will have to strike a delicate balance, akin to walking a tightrope. If he can maintain this balance, he could restore the National Conference's political strength, which has dwindled a little over the past decade, more so in Jammu.
As we all know the 2019 revocation of J&K's special status by New Delhi has primarily altered its political and social undercurrents. What was once a state with its own constitution and greater autonomy is now a federally administered territory. This shift will continue to influence every political decision that needs to be carefully balanced with the voter sentiment in the region and powerhouse in New Delhi.
In this scenario, Omar Abdullah will need to balance various competing forces, including his party's ambitions, the aspirations of the people in the valley, the people of Jammu, and New Delhi's watchful eye.
The National Conference political party was once a dominant force in Jammu and Kashmir. However, with time, in the last couple of decades, its organisational structure has weakened. Cadres still identify with the party due to its long-standing presence and the reputation and legacy of Omar's grandfather. The present assembly elections and victory of the party cannot be seen as a wave for the National Conference in Kashmir but vote against New Delhi's policies, despite the absence of the region's unrest, hartals, and economic gains.
The administration, despite doing some good work in J&K, failed to win the hearts and minds of the Kashmiri people, as was evident in the election results. Political observers of the valley are of the view that the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir's special status played a significant role in shaping valley voter sentiment and it is still too fresh in the psyche of the society.
When you walk through the valley, a sense of bitterness lingers beneath the surface that so far has not been addressed. Many in Kashmir still feel disconnected, not understanding the new political nomenclature of the valley despite business and tourism doing very well. One could feel that a hand of healing touch remains at bay, a lack of trust between the people and the central government continues. Though the region is calmer, whispers of displeasure with the political status quo continues.
One thing we all should understand is that the people of Jammu and Kashmir are politically astute, shaped by decades of violence and survival tactics. They may not at first go voice their true opinions, preferring to speak privately rather than risk public backlash and their personal safety. For this reason, many times some of the analysts misjudged or misread the outward displays of opinion by the people, and perhaps for this reason, the exit poll opinion was also not up to the mark.
Omar Abdullah's leadership will require not only political practicality but also a deep understanding of this cautious, highly aware electorate that can change overnight as we saw the sides of Engineer Rashid election result in the Lok Sabha election and now in the Assembly election, just in a span of four months.
Omar's other challenge will be rejuvenating the youth wing of the National Conference. It lacks the strength and cohesion it once had under his father and grandfather. The younger generation in Kashmir has different aspirations and priorities, influenced by technology and information, which have brought more educational and economic opportunities to the region. The challenge now is to translate these opportunities into real jobs and livelihoods, particularly for the youth.
Equally, this election saw the BJP gaining ground in both Jammu and parts of Kashmir. While they did not win in the valley, their vote share increased, indicating that their presence is growing. Had they concentrated more in specific regions like Shopian, Habba Kadal and Gurez, they might have secured some key seats and opened an account in the valley.
Mehbooba Mufti's People's Democratic Party (PDP) also performed not so well, winning only three seats. This is a straight fall from its previous performance, and, to some extent, an indication of a shift in regional politics. Many observers say that Mehbooba's party fighting the election was to keep cadres intact for a comeback in future polls, eyeing the 2029 race instead of focusing on immediate gains.
What Omar Needs to Do
Omar will need to meet the massive mountain of expectations of the local population. His new team of ministers and bureaucrats will have to maintain a close connection to the grassroots, ensuring that people's grievances are at least heard and addressed where possible. This will require setting up efficient systems like in-house call centres to handle public feedback and demands.
Omar's team cannot afford to rest. The opposition will be watching for any missteps, and the central government will keep a close eye on the security and law-and-order situation.
Any failure to maintain peace and stability in the valley will not be considered favourable and needs to be avoided at all cost. Omar will not only need to engage with the experienced political veterans of his party but also grey-haired society leaders to better navigate the tricky diplomacy between Jammu and Kashmir and the central government.
He will also need a battery of constitutional law experts who will guide him with the state's new laws and how to take maximum benefit out of them. The question of reverse in any circumstance looks like a far-off cry. Omar must diligently and intelligently begin work with new tools and objectives with a clean slate rather than floating in the past.
The country is on the fast track, and in no circumstances does one need to miss the bus lest the J&K remain in the backwaters of development and economic gains and political stability. Omar Abdullah's task is to lead his party and build a bridge of trust between the region and New Delhi while addressing the aspirations of a new generation showcasing a new model of governance that benefits collectively.
As Chief Minister, Omar Abdullah will have to walk a tightrope on a razor's edge between conflicting regional interests, public expectations, and the realities of governance in a post-2019 Jammu and Kashmir. His ability to manage these challenges will determine not just his political future but also the future of the National Conference and the region's stability. A single misstep could see the grip loosening. Maintaining balance will be a constant challenge.
