Numbers were against Sat Sharma, strategy wasn’t
Srinagar, Oct 25: In a political upset, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Satpal Sharma clinched the fourth Rajya Sabha seat from J&K, defeating the National Conference (NC)-Congress-People’s Democratic Party (PDP) alliance that had a clear numerical advantage on paper.
Sharma’s victory, with 31 votes, came despite the BJP having only 28 MLAs in the 90-member J&K Assembly, an outcome that has sent shockwaves through the opposition ranks and redrawn perceptions of power arithmetic in the region’s politics.
Going into the polls, the NC-led bloc appeared confident of sweeping all four Upper House seats.
With NC’s 41 MLAs, Congress’s six, PDP’s three, and a handful of independents, the alliance’s strength comfortably exceeded the BJP’s 28.
However, when votes were counted, Sharma emerged with 31, implying at least three cross-votes from outside his party.
The NC’s candidate, Imran Nabi Dar, who was backed by Congress, PDP, and several independents, and received 21 votes for the 4th seat, fell short by eight votes, exposing deep fissures within the INDIA bloc’s coordination in J&K.
While Sharma diplomatically said that “MLAs voted consciously for me,” party insiders admit the result was not mere chance, but the outcome of a meticulously crafted strategy that blended quiet outreach, subtle persuasion, and disciplined organisational effort.
According to senior BJP functionaries, the party leadership had been “eyeing the fourth seat from day one,” even when conventional arithmetic suggested otherwise.
“When the NC allied with Congress, PDP, and independents, we decided to change the strategy,” a senior BJP insider said. “Instead of engaging with blocs, we reached out to individual MLAs explaining how Satpal Sharma would be a stronger, development-focused voice for J&K in the Rajya Sabha.”
This personalised approach – described internally as “quiet persuasion” - emphasised Sharma’s long-standing reputation as a grassroots leader and organisation man, contrasting it with what the BJP called the “dynastic stagnation” of the NC.
The campaign appealed to MLAs’ sense of individual responsibility and performance-based representation, rather than party loyalty alone.
Although no MLA has publicly acknowledged cross-voting, political observers believe at least two Congress MLAs, one independent, and possibly a PDP legislator, switched sides. The secrecy of Rajya Sabha ballots allows MLAs to defy party lines without fear of disqualification, a loophole that has repeatedly influenced Upper House elections across India.
