Not holding J&K assembly polls with LS

An erstwhile state which has undergone tremendous change, constitutional and otherwise, is without a local elected government for the last over six years. As the Lok Sabha elections were drawing nearer, it had given a flicker of hope to the people as well as the political spectrum- barring the BJP- that the elections to assembly will be held alongside the Lok Sabha polls.

As the one-member team of Election Commission of India (ECI) comprising Chief Election Commissioner Mr Rajeev Kumar visited the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir surprisingly 48 hours before two new Election Commissioners were to be appointed, it had raised hopes about assembly elections too. More so, with majority of the political parties pleading before him for holding assembly elections along with Lok Sabha, echoing the public sentiment. But the political parties’ pleadings and public yearning for assembly polls fell on the wayside. It raises a question if holding assembly elections is a political or an administrative decision? It would have been purely an administrative decision from singular point of security had it been the heady days of terrorism. But what if, based on the claims of the government and reflected in ground realities, the situation has considerably improved. Still the holding of assembly elections is being held back despite a Supreme Court direction to conduct it before September 30, 2024.

Post August 5, 2019, with the state being demoted into a Union Territory, Jammu and Kashmir particularly Kashmir has become a different kind of political laboratory. A new mode of political and ideological experimentation was kick-started. It has all been happening in the absence of a duly elected government.

After all, why had the Centre, of course under the cover of ECI, been dithering on the issue of holding assembly elections? This becomes a key question while addressing the current conundrum on this issue. Although the Chief Election Commissioner while announcing the Lok Sabha election schedule took the convenient and oft-repeated ploy of hiding behind the façade of availability of additional security forces. The reason behind not holding the assembly elections shows total lack of political will or the lack of confidence on the part of ruling BJP strategists. An election has to be fought and won on ground rather than resorting to subterfuge, or political or administrative machinations.

The other two reasons pin-pointed by Mr Kumar were the “Legislative hurdles” and “Amarnath Yatra”.

Strangely enough the “Legislative hurdles’ such as the delimitation of constituencies and changing the contour of reservation policy by including more communities had been removed before the end of the last year. As it is the Lok Sabha elections were being conducted and will be concluded before the start of the Amarnath Yatra. How these two factors come in the way of holding assembly elections, only the authorities would know. The new political experimentation in Jammu and Kashmir employs that, true to its new character developed during the last decade, the ruling dispensation (read BJP) should be at the centerstage of every experiment - the conceiver and implementer. The only outcome of any move should be a victory for the BJP. This is quite contrary to the Atal Bihari Vajpayee era (BJP of yore) wherein the sole motive was to ensure the political and democratic activity flourished in the erstwhile state by giving precedence to national interest and democratic values over that of the BJP.

Although Jammu and Kashmir has been rendered to be an inconsequential Union Territory, after demotion and bifurcation, from a bustling state with three distinct and unique regions being part of it, the holding or not the assembly elections seem to be at the center of the BJP’s overall plan on Kashmir. The plan unfolded with the creation of a new look parliamentary constituency of Anantnag as some areas of Jammu region such as in Poonch and Rajouri districts were added to this basically Kashmir region Lok Sabha segment. Crossing the geographical boundaries over the mighty Pir Panjal range of Himalayas to create a new constituency following the delimitation process, was meant to create a window by which the BJP could electorally enter the Kashmir Valley.

Since this end was achieved and the party is pro-actively looking at this constituency to register first ever electoral victory in the Muslim majority Kashmir, the delayed assembly elections are to be seen as an extension of this experiment. As part of the broader political plan Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi paid a high-profile visit to Kashmir, first after abrogation of Article 370, before the elections were declared. Although it was an official visit but he made the political intentions of the BJP very well known.

Whether BJP succeeds in this plan will be clear after June 4 Lok Sabha election results.

By all standards the ruling dispensation has missed a golden opportunity to gain political capital and goodwill by not conducting assembly elections along with Lok Sabha. The reason offered by the ECI in terms of need for more security forces is untenable and beyond comprehensive. Yes, some additional forces could have been required but simultaneous polls were manageable when all arrangements on war footing had been done for general elections. After all, by the government’s own claim, there is overall improvement in the ground situation and normalcy has been restored particularly in Kashmir. The government, it seems, has been blowing fire and water in the same breath. On one side it is claiming marked improvement in the situation, which to a great extent is true, and on the other hand making assertions that challenge this claim.

Under the circumstances, statement of the Chief Electoral Officer of Jammu and Kashmir Mr P K Pole declaring “maximum” parts of Kashmir Valley and the lately terrorist hit areas of border districts of Poonch and Rajouri in Jammu region as “vulnerable areas”, makes an interesting reading. If Lok Sabha elections are being conducted despite claims of normalcy and at the same time vulnerability, there was all the more reason to hold simultaneous assembly elections to establish democracy at the local level and give people the voice. Postponement of assembly elections to another day does not reflect good on either the Centre or the ruling BJP. It only raises doubt about the real intentions of the ruling dispensation.

So, why is the ECI (read Centre) not holding simultaneous assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir when the same has been done in few other states where assembly elections were due. And why did the BJP not push for it? It does not bode well to have deprived a strategic area such as Jammu and Kashmir of assembly elections, the last being held in 2014.