No victory, but BJP sowing seeds in Kashmir

Jammu, Oct 15: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was not in a hurry to see its “Lotus” blooming in Kashmir as it would eventually happen with the affection and love of people.

This was the assertion of Union Home Minister Amit Shah on April 16, 2024, while campaigning for party candidates in Jammu during the Lok Sabha elections.

During the same election rally, he had hinted that the party would not field its candidate on any of the three parliamentary seats in the Kashmir region. It contested two seats from the Jammu region and won both of them.

Five months later, the party entered the electoral fray with renewed vigour. During the 2024 Assembly elections, it fielded 19 candidates against a total of 47 seats in the Kashmir region besides contesting all 43 seats from the Jammu region.

Its high-octane campaign was aggressive in its tone and tenor in the Jammu region – its stronghold, led by its topmost star campaigners – Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Union Home Minister Amit Shah. It paid off and it won 29 seats there.

Meanwhile, its campaign had a different orientation in the Kashmir region, in consonance with the “ground realities” there. Notwithstanding its haughty claims, it read the situation and planned its campaigning accordingly.

Out of its topmost campaigner-duo, the Prime Minister did include (Srinagar) Kashmir in his itinerary during the second phase of elections; Shah only focussed on the Jammu region. But the party deployed its tried and tested lieutenants (Ram Madhav at the forefront) to do “groundwork” in the Valley for making the situation conducive for the eventual “Lotus” blooming.

The party worked hard to make it happen yet ‘Lotus’ did not bloom in Kashmir.

Party failed to open its account there yet again earning ridicule from political opponents that the party was wiped out in Kashmir as the people had rejected its decisions taken on August 5, 2019.

Political wordy-duel on this account was well within the parameters of democratic set-up.

However, a micro-analysis of the party's performance in the 2024 assembly elections in Kashmir will unnerve its opponents. The party’s planned campaigning paid dividends (though not rich enough to convert into victory, at least this time).

Results showed that the party, which did not enjoy any support base in the Kashmir region, just ten years ago, was gaining ground there also, though not dramatically yet slowly and steadily.

The first and foremost example was the Gurez assembly segment, where the party finished as runner-up at the hustings. National Conference (NC) candidate Nazir Ahmad Khan defeated BJP candidate Faqeer Mohammad Khan with a margin of 1132 votes. Nazir, who was the Congress-NC combine candidate, polled 8378 votes while his BJP rival bagged 7246 votes (over 40 percent votes). PDP was not in the fray while Democratic Progressive Azad (DPAP) candidate and Jammu and Kashmir People Conference candidates finished in the third and fifth slots respectively.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had campaigned there.

The party’s second remarkable performance was in the Habba Kadal constituency where again BJP candidate Ashok Kumar Bhat was the runner-up with 2899 votes (15.08 percent vote share). He was defeated by Shamim Firdous of NC with a good margin of 9538 votes yet except him (Bhat), all other candidates including those of PDP and Apni Party forfeited their deposits on this seat.

In the Anantnag-West assembly segment, party candidate Muhammad Rafiq Wani secured a vote share in double-digit – 10.61 percent - while finishing third at the electoral podium. A ditto feat was achieved by Arsheed Ahmad Bhat, a BJP candidate from Rajpora, he bagged a 10.44 percent vote and finished in the third slot.

At both places, only NC and PDP were ahead of them. In the Shangus-Anantnag segment, the BJP candidate was second runner-up. In the Shopian assembly segment also, BJP candidate Javid Ahmad Qadri managed to secure a vote percentage in double-digit – 11.6 percent - ahead of PDP and Apni Party candidates. He was in the fourth slot.

In the 2014 assembly elections, BJP had contested 75 seats across J&K and won 25 seats, all from the Jammu region. It had forfeited deposits on 40 seats, (including all seats it contested in Kashmir).

It had polled 11,07,194 votes thus registering a 22.98 percent vote share while its vote percent in seats contested was 26.23 percent.

In 2014, Congress had contested 86 seats won 12 and forfeited deposits on 47 seats. It recorded an 18.01 percent vote share (share in valid votes polled in the state) as it polled 8,67,883 votes. Its vote percentage in seats contested was 18.36 percent.

On the other hand, PDP and NC had contested 84 and 85 seats and won 28 and 15 seats with a vote share of 22.76 percent and 20.77 percent respectively and both forfeited deposits on 29 seats. PDP had polled 10,92,203 votes while NC had procured 10,00,693 votes and their vote percent in seats contested was 23.85 percent and 21.14 percent.