New writing on the wall
The April 22nd Pahalgam massacre of tourists is a gruesome reality, which cannot be reversed even if all the perpetrators and their backers are brought to justice. The massacre took place. It brought negative light to the Valley again. Interestingly, people of the valley demonstrated their unprecedented anger and outrage in streets and more than that in their homes.
In the aftermath of the carnage, the Indian leadership announced certain measures, including the suspension of over six-decade old Indus Waters Treaty; as one of the punitive actions against Pakistan, from where the whole idea of terror attacks originated. Pakistan announced counter-measures including keeping in abeyance Simla Agreement of July 1972 – ironically, the western neighbour had given burial to this pact long ago.
Three things are quite obvious; (a) the worst-ever massacre of the tourists took place on the soil of Jammu and Kashmir, something that had not happened at the peak of militancy, (b) the IWT has been held in abeyance, and Pakistan has termed it as an act of war, and ( c) tensions have escalated between India and Pakistan as a consequence of the tit-for-tat measures by Delhi and Islamabad.
In all this, J&K is in the center of the storm. There is no intelligent guess as to what will happen next, the whole thing is lost in thick clouds of uncertainty and unpredictability. It also gives rise to the questions about what brought India and Pakistan to this stage where speculations are rife about further escalation of tensions and their manifestation in something akin to war.
At this stage, it is a prescript for a war or war-like situation in which Kashmir is at the center of the whole tension. The act of terror in Baisaran, Pahalgam, has changed the whole situation. Kashmir, where thousands of tourists were thronging on daily basis has become a dreaded land for the tourists as each time they think of the Vale, the horrifying images of a newly-wed couple, one unconsciousness alongside the dead body of her husband cross their minds, and they turn off their plans.
The international leaders have condemned the incident in strongest possible terms, some of them, including the US President Donald Trump, have spoken to Prime Minister Narendra Modi about their unflinching support to India in its fight against terrorism. That speaks for the outrage of the world leaders and standing by India in these times, recognising the standing of the country in the world.
But the moot question remains, what next? This has to be answered against the backdrop of the massacre; it cannot be allowed to go unpunished, and what should be the extent of punishment. Terrorists did not think of the limit of their acts of barbarianism, the retaliation has to be equal or more than that. Not only the terrorists, but their backers too will have to be punished. In the past, India has punished these backers in the wake of Uri and Pulwama acts of terror, but that did not stop Pahalgam from happening. There is a visible backdrop of Pakistan army chief Gen. Asim Munir, faced with critical challenges and failures at home, who on April 15 reminded overseas Pakistanis about the foundation of Pakistan on the basis of the two-nation theory, in which Hindus and Muslims were two separate nations and that “ Kashmir was a jugular vein.” This was dismissed as a rhetoric by a frustrated General for whom everything was going wrong in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Now Pahalgam is being seen as backdrop of his presentation, a religiously wrapped rhetoric before overseas Pakistanis .
Millions of cusecs of waters have flown to Pakistan from the six rivers to Pakistan past one week, and it will continue to flow until mechanism to divert the waters is put in place. Pakistan should be grateful to India for that, though its experts are arguing that India cannot take any unilateral action on the treaty as there is no such exit clause; they shed light on the international law that prevents stoppage of the water by the upper riparian states to the low lying ones. But, is there any clause within the treaty or in the international law that the upper riparian states are to be bled through terrorism. They are taking single-lens view of the whole thing.
There is another question, if stopping the waters, for argument sake, is an “act of war,” then what should cross-border terrorism be deemed? The denials are not the answer to these questions. Some of the reputed and well-informed diplomatic commentators in Pakistan have suggested resumption of back-channel talks to disperse war clouds hanging in the horizon. It is a good idea, but it is late in the day.
The real issue is not that India is a large country, with its growing economy in which the countries from across the world have invested and were keen to invest more – that is the reality – but the issue is why should Pakistan be home to terrorists and export them to India. That certainly is not permissible, big or small, no country will ever tolerate such barbaric acts of terror. And the back channel talks are good idea when formal talks are not happening, but what benefit would it deliver if the sequel of Pulwama is Pahalgam. India has to put a full stop to it.
The ball is in the court of Pakistan.
Kashmir this time denounced the attack like never before. This was a message to the whole of the nation that the Muslim majority Kashmir is in mourning over the spilling of the Hindu tourists’ blood. Adil Shah, a Kashmiri braveheart Adil Shah sacrificed his life in his bid to save the lives of the tourists. Adil was, and will continue to be the face of Kashmiri resistance against the senseless violence. No one sacrifices life for optics. It is real.
There is a louder message for Pakistan and all the enemies of peace; keep your hands off Kashmir. That message has to be understood in real terms. Kashmir doesn’t want to be dragged into vicious cycle of violence again. This is bold writing on the wall, read its spirit or walk away. Choice is yours.
