New Order: Management and Maneuverability
Independent policies for the developing countries have a price to pay. India of late has been ready to pay it. The recent BRICS conference showing new proximities with south Asian neighborhoods on one side, and America-Canada’s mutual salvo over ‘meaningful accountability on Indian national’s role’ in plot assassination attempts in Canada and America are not surprising moves. This could be interpreted in different lenses.
It is not coincidental that Chinese premier has publicly shown its unease about Pakistan’s inability to give foolproof protection to its citizens. With India, China at two sites has been able to pull back its troops to its earlier positions in a silent military diplomacy. America has put 19 private firms and two Indian nationals on sanction list for their alleged role in helping Russia. These are the radiating beams of the new world Order. Although its premises look simple, but are contradictory in changed times, when many parts in the middle of the globe are thrown into wars. The changed political landscapes of political interests have also produced silent alliances, which in years would become noticeable. China to a greater extent has overcome its internal vulnerabilities, with new possible adjustments.
The era of China-American cooperation from 1972 to 1989 has come to close with huge gains for China. China has set itself to lead the world in coming decades and American march is somehow halted. The new century has made America jittery against china. China has set its goals of developmental hegemony. Its connectivity, cooperation and long time loans and military exhibition time to time are its schedule score.
The new rivalry is between US and China. Undercurrent, its lines are clear on geographical proximities and civilization pride. Russia has accepted China’s rise. China has already paid its gratitude to Pakistan in the best possible way, financially, militarily and even in shaping its foreign policy concerns as well since 1970. It is now moving ahead on its assemblage, reading historical contradictions and similarities well. This is where India and Pakistan are now placed in the think tanks of China. China buys peace from Pakistan, the way US manages it though its maneuverability. India with its democratic traditions, emerging financial growth and huge human resources with no historical continuum contradictions have made China in the longer run to have patch work management with India.
Russia supports it. China power elite knows it well that India and China, people to people contact has strength in continuity than breaks in contradiction. The emergent happenings are shaping up future vision through the BRICS for the global world.
The China India border issue is not what is being thought of perennial concerns. It has to be managed with mutual interest and current requirement for both the countries in order of its fragile border histories. The borders before 18th century were frontiers. The frontiers were not well marked. It is when nation-states era came to happening; China became conscious of its territories. China before that had fluctuating boundaries with all its neighboring countries. The hard realization had come from the old Great Game, when British from 1840 onwards tried to compete with Russia to influence central Asia, including territory managements.
The frontier cultural zones could not be demarcated and managed because of its huge difficult terrains and complex cultural estrangement uniqueness. It was in 1862 onwards, China started marking its boundaries with the Qing forces under Zuo Zongtang, demolished the Dungan Muslim revolt completely.
The Muslim Hui and Salar rebels were killed in great numbers to change the social demography that produced the new geography of China. There is a long history of antagonisms and internal conflicts between Hui Muslims and local Chinese. Amidst it, long century” of 110 years, known as century of humiliation when ‘Britain sent gunboats up the Yangtze River to compel China’s rulers to open their ports and markets to the opium trade, at the beginning of what came to be known as the First Opium War. China's defeat by Japan in the HYPERLINK "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Sino-Japanese_War"First Sino-Japanese War (1894–1895) was fundamental to the development of the first generation of Chinese nationalists. Its realization has happened since 1916.
China Since 2015 moves on two prong strategy; one, to set internal social geography, as per its political and development lines and the second one, through the OROB connectivity with the outer world. This way, they have been able to manage Uyghur and Tibetans to a measure extent. The Uyghur is ethnic Muslim community, treating themselves as culturally and ethnically close to Central Asian nations. The region in the past has thrived on trade known as famous Silk Road. China has succeeded to substantial measure in making it a new state of Xinjiang, this way with development and uniformity of laws.
China has been able to suppress the religious identities considerably. Its reliance on Pakistan in a way has lessened to say it openly that Pakistan has been lacking in its ability to protect its citizen inside Pakistan. Its second apprehension is from the west, which it is set to counter through BRICS, at least in a notional sense. China's hard connectivity is well gazed with soft ware gaze to protect its security and expand business interests. No wonder with India, its nearness might not be pronounced, but tacitly understood.
There is huge chunk of popular base in China where there is undercurrent for Indians in its historicity. In the new dynamics, Pakistan might remain dear to U.S and close to China, for both need it to manage their interests, for both are distrustful not only with each other but with the countries they manage, especially with Pakistan. India knows it that peace with Pakistan is peace with China and negotiations with US, which is always irksome. Kashmir or no Kashmir, the contradictions of geography and history that have been willfully created, unless resolved at global level shall remain troubling the world. Engagement with China is imperative for our future peace.
Note: My sincere thanks to Prof Kamalsheel, the expert on China for his inputs
Ashok Kaul, Retired Professor of Sociology at Banaras Hindu University,
