New Middle East

When the regime of Bashar al-Assad spectacularly fell following a lightning offensive by rebel groups, parts of the Muslim world went up in celebration. But two weeks into the rebel-led government, the mood has somewhat sobered. It doesn’t now look quite the victory of the resistance forces against a longtime dictator that it was billed to be. As Israel carries out one airstrike after another to destroy Syria’s remaining military capabilities, leaving it virtually defenceless, the rebels have largely chosen to be silent. Nor have they protested as Israel decided to seize the buffer zone in Syria “for the foreseeable future.” This is turning into reality the Greater Israel project right before our eyes. As things pan out, it increasingly looks like a conquest of Syria by the west and Israel, giving them a strategic foothold in the region. It is not just Iran whose ‘Axis of Resistance’ against Israel has been mortally dented but the Middle East itself has now become more vulnerable to western and Israeli geopolitical manipulation. Following Assad’s fall, Israel is now at the peak of its power, emerging much stronger from a year of war on multiple fronts due to an unstinted western support.

So what began as a Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 that killed 1139 Israelis hasn’t ended well either for Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran. Nor has it for other Arab countries who maintained a safe distance from the war which has so far consumed over 44000 Palestinian lives, and 3000 Lebanese besides several top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. It is now turning out that Israel’s leveling of Gaza and the systematic operations against Hezbollah wasn’t just a disproportionate revenge for the October 7 assault but a part of an ambitious geopolitical chess game to reshape the Middle East.

Iran, and Hezbollah supported by Russia were instrumental in keeping Assad's regime in power. However, recent developments have shifted the balance of power in the region. The weakening of Hamas, Hezbollah and Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine created an opening for the West-backed forces, who seized control in Syria in a swift offensive lasting just weeks.

For decades, Palestinians relied on material and political support from the Iran-backed alliance. Syria, an Iran ally, was a lynchpin in the regional support structure for Hamas. It was a crucial corridor for supply of arms to Hamas and Hezbollah fighting Israel. The new administration in Damascus is expected to distance itself from Iran, signaling a recalibration of Syria’s foreign policy. This shift could further isolate Tehran, undermining its ability to project power and sustain its allies.

Meanwhile, Israel has diminished security threats from Hezbollah and Hamas and countered Iran's influence. With the prospect of a cooperative government in Syria, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has claimed credit for toppling Assad’s regime, describing it as breaking the “central link” in Iran's axis. So Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s October 7 assault intended to deal a mortal blow to Israel has set off a cascade of events that have enabled Netanyahu to create a Middle East more favourable to his country, thereby further setting back Palestinian cause.

What happens next? HTS leader Mohammed al-Julani has made it clear that unlike al-Qaeda or ISIS, the group will not engage in anti-Western violence. While HTS praised Hamas's October 7 attacks and supports the Palestinian cause, its leadership has not issued any specific statements about Israel since coming to power. This despite the fact that Israel has captured a swathe of Syrian territory.

How the situation evolves from hereon can be anybody’s guess. Assad’s ousting has dealt a big blow to the Axis of Resistance, making the region vulnerable to further dramatic developments: there remains a possibility that fragile governments in Lebanon and Jordan could be the next to collapse, potentially giving rise to a fresh ISIS-type axis which could present a new security challenge for the region. It also remains to be seen how Russia reacts to the evolving situation in Syria. Would it cooperate with the new government in Damascus or arm its opponents to ensure that some measure of its writ runs in the country. The point is that the Middle East now is at a new and fraught inflection point. One thing, however, is clear: Israel and the west now have a decisive advantage. More than ever before, Greater Israel is an idea whose time seems to have come. It is now unrealistic to expect that Israel could be removed from the region. Or that there could be a two-state solution to Palestinian issue in the near to medium future.

The US-led west, on the other hand, has shown that it isn’t declining as otherwise a section of media narrative goes. More than the end of Assad’s rule, the takeover of the HTS symbolizes the retreat of Russia and Iran - and by extension even that of China, Russia’s ally. The US is now the unchallenged boss in the Middle East, which, in turn, has further firmed its position as the boss of the world.

 Ahmad Rizwan is a political commentator