NC-Congress alliance wins in J&K

Jammu, Oct 8: Surging ahead with a literal red wave across Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference (NC) Tuesday emerged as the single largest party with 42 seats, in one of the most keenly fought and watched elections to the 90-member J&K Legislative Assembly.

Party-wise results announced today saw BJP securing 29 seats; Congress six; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) three; People Conference (PC) one; CPI (M) one; Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) one, and independents seven seats.

Though no single party managed to touch the halfway mark on its own yet, NC-Congress combine, which was a pre-poll alliance, was comfortably placed at 48, two seats above the simple majority mark of 46 required for government formation.

Even, in the eventuality of a majority mark taken as 48, if five (to be) nominated MLAs are added to 90 elected MLAs, the magic number (48) needed for government formation is with the NC-Congress combine.

Moreover, winning candidate of CPI-M Muhammad Yusuf Tarigami has already offered support to the INDIA bloc.

PDP, being part of the INDIA alliance, has also expressed its willingness to support “any secular alliance” (read Congress-NC) to “keep BJP out of power.” Its support was endorsed by Farooq Abdullah as well.

So, the final tally has paved the way for the formation of its (NC's) coalition government in J&K, with alliance partner Congress, to be helmed by NC Vice President Omar Abdullah.

Immediately after it became clear that the NC-Congress combine was back in the saddle, comfortably placed, NC President Farooq Abdullah made an announcement in this connection (Omar as the next CM). Now for him (Omar), it will be his second stint as the CM.

Ally Congress, however, could secure only six seats during these elections, held after a hiatus of 10 years. The party, despite being in its resurgent Avatar, saw its tally reduced to half when compared to the 2014 elections. In 2014, Congress had bagged 12 seats.

Results of three-phased assembly elections, conducted on September 18, 25, and October 1, announced today saw NC emerging as a dominant force in J&K, reclaiming its space (lost in 2014) with aplomb in 2024. NC registered an almost three-fold increase in its tally this time while it could secure only 15 seats in the 2014 assembly elections.

Barring a few exceptions, all key candidates of the party emerged victorious as the party bagged 42 seats out of 51 seats it contested during these assembly elections – the first polls after the abrogation of Article 370 and bifurcation of J&K into two union territories.

NC Vice President Omar Abdullah was the frontrunner among NC’s winning brigade as he scored a resounding victory from both Ganderbal – Abdullahs’ bastion and Budgam assembly segments, leaving behind a bitter memory of the stunning drubbing he faced in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 from Baramulla.

This time, Omar defeated his nearest rival Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi of PDP from the Budgam seat with a convincing margin of 18,485 votes. Omar bagged 36,010 votes while Mehdi polled 17,525 votes.

From Ganderbal constituency, Omar polled 32,727 votes, defeating his close contestant again from PDP, Bashir Ahmad Mir, with a margin of 10,574 votes.

Most significant aspect was NC, along with its partner, almost managed a clean sweep across the Kashmir region. NC bagged 35 seats from Kashmir and Congress bagged five seats, out of its total tally of six, from the region (Kashmir).

Not only this, NC also got a chunk of seats from the Jammu region, to be precise seven seats.

In fact, NC bagged both seats in the Ramban district while it also captured two seats each from the Rajouri and Poonch districts and one seat from the Reasi district.

Though following delimitation, the whole scenario has changed with an increase of seven seats in the J&K Legislative Assembly yet in any case, NC has emerged as a big gainer during these elections.

On the other hand, contrary to haughty claims to “emerge as the single largest party after declaration of election results”, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finished second after NC with 29 seats – way far off its expectations of “bagging 35 seats on its own.”

Nevertheless, the party reaped the harvest of its aggressive, high-pitched campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. It held on to its stronghold, more or less across the Jammu region, except Poonch and Ramban districts, where it could not bag even a single seat.

However, its biggest setback came from the Nowshera assembly segment of the border district of Rajouri, where J&K BJP President Ravinder Raina lost to NC candidate Surinder Kumar Choudhary, by 7819 votes. Raina polled 27,250 votes while the NC candidate bagged 35,069 votes.

The party (BJP) can take solace in the fact that it has improved its tally by four seats, as compared to the 2014 assembly elections. BJP had got 25 seats during the last assembly polls (2014). One wonders if this solace is enough to offset the loss it has suffered.

Another regret for it will be that the ‘Lotus’ did not bloom in Kashmir even this time.

In the J&K assembly elections 2024, if NC has everything to gain, its bête noire PDP is a major loser.

Not only did its seats tumble from 28 (it bagged in 2014 assembly polls) to just three (all from Kashmir) in 2024, the party also saw its key candidates, including Iltija Mufti, daughter of PDP President Mehbooba Mufti losing from Srigufwara-Bijbehara segment to Bashir Ahmad Shah Veeri and Muhammad Sartaj Madni to Peerzada Feroze Ahmad of NC from Devsar constituency.

If political experts are to be believed, the party had to pay for its “North Pole-South Pole alliance” (though short-lived) with BJP following the 2014 assembly polls.

“This is the only rationale behind the party facing drubbing even in its stronghold in south Kashmir,” they assert.

As far as Congress is concerned, it also lost, yet again, its presumed stronghold Jammu region, mainly to its traditional rival BJP. The party (Congress) could bag only one seat from the region – from the Rajouri (ST) assembly segment where its candidate Iftikar Ahmed defeated BJP’s Vibodh Kumar with a margin of 1404 votes.

The rest of its space in the Jammu region was devoured by its “natural ally” NC. “Friendly contests” too had a role.

Besides, NC had expressed its grouse against its (Congress') lacklustre campaign in the Jammu region.