NC-Congress alliance faces litmus test in last poll phase

Srinagar, Sep 26: While the third and final phase of the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections on October 1 is important for all contesting parties and candidates, it is like a litmus test for the survival of the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance.

Not only more seats are going to polls in the phase but the popularity of Congress in Jammu will be tested in a big way on that day. Twenty-four constituencies in the Jammu region and 16 in Kashmir are going to polls in the final phase. Results, particularly of Jammu seats, will determine the key players for the government formation.

Already voices are being raised against the lack of proper and extensive campaigning by Congress in Jammu plains. National Conference (NC) Vice President Omar Abdullah has expressed his displeasure over Congress not campaigning in the plains of Jammu the way it should have done.

Talking to the media on Wednesday, he expressed hope that after Rahul Gandhi is done with campaigning in one or two seats in Kashmir, he will focus on Jammu. "Ultimately what Congress does in Kashmir is not that important but what Congress does in Jammu is important," Omar said. He said that the alliance gave the lion's share of the seats to Congress in Jammu but the campaign of Congress in Jammu plains is yet to begin. "There are only five days of campaigning and I hope that the Congress focuses more on Jammu," the NC Vice President said.

Omar made the statement yesterday at a time when Rahul Gandhi in J&K. He addressed election rallies in Jammu and Sopore. In Sopore the NC and Congress are having a "friendly contest." According to the Congress candidate, the NC leaders and supporters are disrupting his rallies and tearing his party flags and banners in his constituency.

It will be a tough task for Congress to go for an extensive campaign because time is running out for it and BJP is consolidating its position day by day.  Senior central BJP have been campaigning for their candidates one after the other. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already addressed two election rallies and is arriving again on September 28 in Jammu. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has addressed a series of election rallies. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has also addressed the people several times. Other senior leaders are also doing so and in fact some of them are camping in Jammu.

Senior Congress leader and leader of opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi and Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge too have visited Jammu several times to garner support for their party candidates. While they are doing so the local leadership of Congress in Jammu has not been able to consolidate the support. It was expected by the non-BJP political circles that the Congress leaders in Jammu would further strengthen the growing public support for their party there.

BJP had won both the parliamentary seats in Jammu some months back for the third consecutive time. However, the winning margin in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls had been significantly reduced indicating that Congress has made inroads. Based on that notion, the top leadership of NC-Congress were expecting a good number of assembly seats from Jammu as well. Nothing can be said right now as to which party will win more seats in Jammu.

That will become clear on the election result day on October 8. However, the lack of preparations by Congress is a cause of concern for NC, which wanted its alliance partner to focus more on Jammu than on Kashmir.  NC leadership feels that their alliance has an edge in Kashmir. During the finalisation of seat sharing, Congress gave a tough time to NC regarding seats and managed to get a good number of seats in  Kashmir. NC for obvious reasons also gave more seats to Congress in Jammu.

Now the questions are being asked about the Congress strategy in Jammu. Is the lack of campaigning in Jammu plains by the party because of the perception among local leaders that they cannot do much against the BJP there? Is their mental block leaving the field wide open for the BJP?

Interestingly, Congress changed its party head in Jammu and Kashmir at the assembly election time. Tariq Hamid Karra replaced Vikar Rasool Wani as the Jammu and Kashmir Pradesh Congress Committee (JKPCC) Chief. This did not go well with Wani, who alleged that some leaders do not want a JKPCC Chief from the other side of the tunnel (Jammu). When asked by the media about the change, several Jammu-based Congress leaders said that it was the high command's decision.

But at the same time, they praised Wani for holding the fort when senior leader Ghulam Nabi Azad had launched his Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) and several leaders from Congress had joined him. Wani is unhappy that NC did not leave the Banihal seat for him and preferred a "friendly contest" there. He strongly criticised  Omar Abdullah but Congress condemned his  "derogatory remarks against the NC leadership" and distanced itself from what he had said.

While the election result is on October 8, the political circles have started discussing what will happen to the NC- Congress alliance if Congress is unable to get a good number of seats in Jammu. In that case, the NC- NC-Congress alliance will not be able to get the majority. And if the alliance tries to form a coalition government with the PDP or some other parties or candidates in Kashmir, the mandate of Jammu will seem to be ignored.

BJP is also saying that it will form the government with like-minded parties or winning candidates from Kashmir. If neither the NC-Congress alliance nor BJP and its like-minded parties and winning independents can form the government then what will be done? Will the largest party from Kashmir and the largest party from Jammu go for a coalition government formation as had happened in 2014 when PDP and BJP had joined hands despite being poles apart politically?  Will NC and BJP form the government if the former emerges as the largest party in Kashmir and later the largest party in Jammu?  Fully knowing about what happened to PDP after the coalition government with the BJP,  can NC take that big political risk? But in case of the failure by the political parties to form a government, J&K will continue to be under Lieutenant Governor's rule.