Navigating the tightrope of power and identity

Jammu, Oct 6: These are consequential times for Jammu and Kashmir.

The long-awaited and highly anticipated assembly elections have concluded, and the results are likely to produce a fragmented mandate – a recurring feature in J&K’s political landscape, especially during these critical times for the region, which has faced a mix of uplifting changes and deep-seated resentment.

Exit polls suggest a hung assembly, a view shared by many political observers. Historically, pre-poll and post-poll alliances have often dictated the formation of governments in J&K, with mixed outcomes - some withstood the test of time, while others crumbled with disastrous consequences. The elections of 1987, 2008, and 2018 offer vivid examples. These occasions prompt the question: how might J&K have fared without these fragile alliances that were designed to navigate such challenging times?

This election, however, brings even greater challenges than those of the past. These issues were underscored by the major political players in Kashmir. The National Conference (NC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Apni Party, and People’s Conference (PC), despite their differences, shared a unified stance on one thing: the restoration of J&K’s identity and dignity, which they felt had been undermined. And there was a wide agreement that restoration of the statehood to J&K was the best way out.

On the other hand, the BJP is expected to emerge as the single-largest party in the Jammu region, thanks to its aggressive campaigning on issues specific to the region. Promising “Jammu’s government” and a “Dogra Chief Minister” echoed their central themes from the 2014 Assembly polls. The BJP set its sights on 43 seats in Jammu but only fielded 19 candidates in Kashmir, effectively conceding its limited appeal in the Valley. Any alternative narrative is unrealistic.

In Kashmir, NC appears poised to emerge as the single largest party – not just because exit polls suggest it, but because ground realities reflect a similar outcome. The party’s vigorous campaign led by three-time chief minister Farooq Abdullah, former chief minister Omar Abdullah, and its new Members of Parliament (MPs) Mian Altaf Ahmad and Syed Aga Ruhullah resonated with voters by focusing on the endangered dignity of the people of Kashmir. Though many lamented the failure of Kashmiri parties to unite, the NC’s message still found a receptive audience. Had the Kashmir-based political parties united before then polls, the scene would have been quite different. The PDP has also made a modest comeback and is not out of reckoning in Kashmir politics while Apni Party has carved out a niche for itself. The People’s Conference, however, may have miscalculated by mocking the NC and PDP instead of behaving more in line with the Kashmiri ethos. Meanwhile, Engineer Rashid has a mind of its own.

Now what are the challenges?

Scenario 1

NC with the largest number of seats from Kashmir and few others from Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal region, while BJP with a maximum number of seats from the Jammu heartland and few from the hills, make it to the newly elected Assembly.

In this case, the Assembly could devolve into a bullying pulpit, with NC and BJP bullying each other no matter which party or group of parties or independents form the government. That will lead to chaos and the governance will get consumed and both the parties would fail their voters and supporters.

Scenario 2

NC forms the government on its own. While this will be reflective of Kashmiri aspirations, it could strain relations with Delhi. The party leadership is both experienced and pragmatic. However, the danger is that of confrontation between Srinagar and Delhi. It is a different government at the Centre which has no stomach for any criticism. Farooq Abdullah, through his vast political experience since the late 1970s, knows how important it is for J&K to have cordial relations with Delhi. Srinagar cannot afford to move on without keeping Delhi in good humour. It is more relevant today than ever before.

Alternatively, if the BJP forms the government with the help of smaller parties and a few independents, will it be able to surmount the challenges of running the government with NC playing the role of opposition? The party has acquired new aggression. There are many dangers built into that scenario, which the BJP leadership is capable of decoding.

Scenario 3

No party is able to form the government. Things are back to square one. The Lieutenant Governor will continue to call the shots in the post-poll scenario. Whatever little meaning these elections have with one of the least powerful Assembly in J&K would be lost too.

Tailpiece

In any of these scenarios, the real winners could be the disruptive forces waiting to exploit the situation.

The ultimate goal should be restoring statehood and empowering the elected government to meet public expectations, rather than engaging in ego battles. In the art of politics, accommodation is key to delivering on the ground. Illusions and delusions must not overshadow realpolitik.