Nature’s Warning Shot: Cloudburst catastrophe in Kishtwar exposes crumbling Himalayas, failed safeguards

Srinagar, Aug 16: Homes vanished, roads caved in, and families and pilgrims were swept away.

Officials counted at least 65 dead and more than 70 missing in Chisotivillage of Kishtwar district after the August 14 cloudburst.

But in disasters like this, the real toll emerges later when the water recedes and silence sets in.

We often call such events “natural disasters,” as if nature is to blame.

The harder truth is that destruction is magnified by reckless construction, inept governance, and people left unprepared for the dangers around them.

The J&K government’s Climate Change report of 2017 had long forewarned of such risks.

“All hilly areas of J&K are prone to cloudbursts. Low-lying parts of Kashmir, especially Sonawari, Awantipora, and Srinagar, are prone to floods. Upper catchments of Jhelum, Indus, Chenab, and Tawi rivers are prone to flash floods,” it said.

The report also noted that the Suru Basin has lost a significant percentage of its glaciers and the Kolhai Glacier has retreated nearly 18 percent – fueling flash floods downstream.

Meteorologists explain that cloudbursts occur when cyclonic winds compress moisture-laden clouds, forcing nucleation and causing a sudden downpour, often over 100 mm in an hour, concentrated in a small area.

In Kishtwar’s steep terrain, such rain instantly turns fragile slopes into raging rivers of mud and rock.

Talking to reporters near Chasoti on his return to this cloudburst-hit remote village in Kishtwar district, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said the entire Himalayan belt was now more prone to glacial lake bursts and cloudbursts.

He was responding to a question about the possibility of forming a team of experts by his government to safeguard the fragile ecosystem in Jammu and Kashmir.

“We are going to have a look at it. It is not just what is happening in J&K. Look at the scary videos that we saw from Uttarakhand. What is happening in Himachal? I think we are all now prone to these glacial lake bursts and cloudbursts. To this freak vague weather, we will have to collectively and individually consult experts to see what we can do to mitigate the risks and the dangers of these things,” CM Omar said.

Geologists say the danger here is built into the land itself.

For 50 million years, the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates have collided, pushing the Himalayas upward faster than any other range in the world.

The collision has shattered the crust into faults - the Main Central Thrust, the Main Boundary Thrust, and the Main Frontal Thrust - that leave razor-sharp ridges and deep valleys inherently unstable.

Earthquakes are a fact of life, but in these mountains, it is the sliding ground, not the shaking, that often proves more deadly.

Kishtwar, Doda, Ramban, and the Pir Panjal ranges are made of fractured stone and glacial debris that crumble when saturated.

A geologist said that a cloudburst was “like nature flipping a switch - one moment it’s raining, the next a hillside is collapsing.”

Almost impossible to predict, their tiny footprint and sudden arrival make forecasting difficult, even globally.

The tragedy in Kishtwar is not unprecedented.

The 2010 Leh cloudburst left over 200 dead.

The 2013 Kedarnath floods in Uttarakhand claimed more than 5700 lives, with later estimates above 6000.

Himachal Pradesh loses dozens each year to landslides and flash floods.

The pattern is clear: these events are becoming more frequent, widespread, and destructive - and part of the danger is man-made.

Road-widening projects slice into hillsides, destabilising them.

Retaining walls are often skipped, drainage systems are inadequate, and forests that anchor soil are cut down.

Development is pushed onto unstable slopes without geological checks, despite court and expert warnings.

“Authorities have to learn a lesson. The acts of vandalism in the name of development will continue as if nothing has happened,” said Faiz Bakshi, Convener of the Environmental Policy Group (EPG). “Warnings from Ramban, Doda, Pahalgam, Ladakh, and other areas were ignored despite the voice raised by activists. Constructions of roads to connect remote hamlets, deforestation, commercial construction on hills, and unregulated pilgrim and tourist influx - all of it destabilises fragile slopes. Even the Supreme Court and National Green Tribunal directions have not deterred such disastrous projects.”

Expressing grief, he said, “My heart goes out to the families of innocent victims who unsuspectingly lost their lives. But will an inquiry be held into the causes that led to this tragedy? Reports about extreme weather, torrential rains, and landslides had already been given. How were such a huge number of pilgrims allowed to proceed? Is there no authority to regulate yatras in such areas?”

Experts say the way forward is clear: enforce no-construction zones in flood plains, regulate pilgrim traffic, mandate slope-stability audits for all hill infrastructure, and install robust early-warning systems linked directly to route managers.

The Himalayan arc from Nepal to Himachal to Kashmir cannot afford more denial.