MeT fails to accurately predict Kashmir snowfall: what went wrong?

Srinagar, Dec 30: The snowfall that disrupted life in Kashmir valley on December 27 caught everyone by surprise, including the Meteorological Department (MeT), raising serious questions about the accuracy of weather predictions.

The department, which had forecast light snowfall, seemed to have failed to anticipate the season's first major snowstorm in the valley, leading to criticism and an internal review of its forecasting models.

Acknowledging that they failed to make the correct prediction, Director of the MeT Department Srinagar, Dr. Mukhtar Ahmed, said that no global or Indian weather models had predicted such heavy snowfall.

He said that their models had hinted at light snowfall in Kashmir plains and moderate snowfall in the upper reaches, with rains expected in Jammu plains.

He said they are investigating potential shortcomings in its systems. "Weather predictions can never be 100 percent accurate, but we will address any gaps in our models," he said.

Independent forecaster Faizan Arif, in a post on X, said the wrong forecast could be attributed to the limitations of “current weather models and forecasting technologies.”

“By investing in advancements in weather prediction, India can better prepare for extreme events, protect its citizens, and minimise potential damage,” he said.