Managing Trump disruption

First 100 days of the US president Donald Trump’s second term have been tumultuous for the world. Far from softening after his divisive first term, Trump has doubled down on confrontation, and power centralization. What is more, his universal tariff hike has thrown the world economy into turmoil. However, India has navigated the first three months of his tempestuous presidency rather well. The central government has managed to safeguard and even deepen the US-India partnership amid tough challenges, using a mix of diplomacy, economic pragmatism, and strategic alignment to manage the fallout.

Much will, however, depend on the trade deal that both the countries are working to conclude to have a more predictable economic relationship. Earlier on in his term, Trump imposed a tough 26% reciprocal tariff on Indian steel, aluminum, and auto parts but India chose to respond calmly to avoid escalation. This was along the expected lines. The US-India ties have steadily improved over the past two decades.

The thawing in the relations that began when the then US president Bill Clinton visited India in 2000 has continued steadily since then. Signing of the nuclear agreement between Clinton's successor George W Bush and the former prime minister Manmohan Singh was a watershed moment in the bilateral relations. Under prime minister Narendra Modi, the ties with the US have gotten even better. The hallmark of the PM’s engagement with the US has been the personal rapport he struck with the three US presidents: Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Trump, now in his second term.

In the PM’s first meeting with Trump soon after the latter’s assumption of office, he offered advanced fighter jets and deepened military ties to India under a decade-long framework. What stands out is how India, under PM Modi, has walked a tightrope - absorbing Trump’s transactional style while pushing for long-term strategic gains. However, a mutually beneficial trading agreement would further strengthen the relationship, anchoring the US-India partnership in greater economic certainty.