Maldives: Between China and India

Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu was on a state visit to India from October 6-10. India rolled out the red carpet for him. Apart from visiting Delhi, where he was received with full ceremonial protocol, Muizzu also visited Agra, Bengaluru and Mumbai. Muizzu had visited India in June for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing in but he did not have an opportunity to hold bilateral discussions with him. Later, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar went to Maldives in August to smooth over the great tensions that had arisen in India-Maldives bilateral ties because of Muizzu’s election as President of his country in autumn last year; he was sworn in as President on November 17, 2023.

Muizzu had based his election campaign, among other issues, on an anti-Indian platform. He called it ‘India Out’. Muizzu had continuously emphasized, during the campaign, that he would ensure that no Indian military presence remained in Maldives. In fact, there were no Indian military personnel on combat duty in Maldives. There were less than a hundred Indian servicemen for the maintenance of Indian aircraft given to Maldives to help it patrol its vast Exclusive Economic Zone and the expanse of the Indian Ocean where the 1200 islands that comprise the country are located. Maritime security is of great concern to Maldives as it is to India. Muizzu’s predecessor recognized the importance of the presence of the Indian military contingent for the maintenance of the platforms. There is little doubt that Muizzu would himself have known about the real nature of the Indian military presence but he chose, for political reasons, to base his campaign on strident anti-Indianism.

It was also known that Muizzu had a pro-China orientation. That too, no doubt, contributed to the nature of his campaign. It would have certainly pleased China. After his victory Muizzu, breaking with tradition which required him to visit India before going on a trip to other countries, went on an official trip to Turkiye soon after assuming office. His next bilateral visit was to China in January this year. President Xi Jinping received him with great warmth and the two countries decided to elevate their relations to the level of a Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership. Xi also said that China would support Maldives sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence and national dignity. The two countries also decided to work out a plan for the inclusion of Maldives in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Most significantly, Maldives and China later signed a Defence Cooperation Relationship.

Meanwhile, Muizzu kept insisting that Indian military personnel for the maintenance of the platforms should leave. The problem was that Maldives did not have the capacity to maintain them. Protracted discussions took place between India and Maldives and finally it was decided in May that while the military personnel would leave an Indian technical team would take their place. Also, Muizzu took action against some of his ministers who had made intemperate remarks against Prime Minister Modi. It was obvious that Muizzu, as President, realised over the months that while his personal inclination was to lean towards China, he could not treat India with disdain. He needed to balance ties between the two countries. Maldives precarious economic situation no doubt made him see matters in the right perspective. India too did not act out of pique. It realised that it cannot wish the Chinese presence away but has to play the diplomatic game of continuing with its relations with a country which is important for its maritime security.

Following their discussions in Delhi on October 7 Modi and Muizzu agreed on a “Vision for Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership”. This document seeks to set out a roadmap for future cooperation in diverse fields such as health, energy, digital and development cooperation. It also covers defence and security cooperation. In this area the Vision document recognises that the two countries face “common challenges” in the maritime domain. The fact is that while some are common, others are not. India’s main challenge in the Indian Ocean region is because of China. It is now apparent that Maldives will engage both countries to augment its defence and security capabilities. And, naturally India will have keep a watchful eye on this sector of Maldives-China ties. India will have to make it apparent to Maldives that while it can chose the course of its foreign relations naturally if these take a direction that adversely impact on Indian security interests it will have to act to protect them.

Maldives would be aware that China is never generous with its financial assistance. Hence, it would be appropriate if India points to the dangers of entanglement in BRI which may lead to unforeseen consequences as in Sri Lanka. One of the reasons for Muizzu looking to India is because despite, his obnoxious campaign, India is currently helping Maldives at its time of economic difficulty. As the Vision Statement notes “President of Maldives thanked India for its timely emergency financial assistance, including by way of rolling over T-bills subscribed by SBI amounting to USD 100 million in May and September 2024 for a further period of one year that provided the much needed financial cushion for Maldives in addressing its urgent financing needs”. And paragraph 3 of the Statement says “President of Maldives Dr. Mohamed Muizzu expressed his appreciation for the decision of the Government of India to extend support in the form of USD 400 million and INR 30 billion as a bilateral currency swap agreement, instrumental in tackling the ongoing financial challenges faced by the Maldives. The leaders also agreed to implement further measures to support Maldives in addressing its financial challenges”.

In inter-state ties too, ultimately, money speaks.