Maldives, a new headache!

The year 2024 is staring at current Indian Foreign Policy with multiple challenges and growing influence of China as it is fast making inroad in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri-Lanka which can be attributed to its dangerous Debt Trap Policy, expansionism and allurement through The Belt and Road Initiative -One Belt One Road). Foreign policy experts say that India is positioning itself as a major growing economic power in Asia vis-a -vis China, though the gap is huge; coupled with growing geopolitical association with the United States, that too at equal terms, may checkmate China in 2024. America’s defense and economic colorations with India may further strengthen the bonds which will have its fallout at the world stage.

Checkmating China

Foreign policy experts say that the United States has already formulated the policy to put a break on China’s growing influence with active participation of India. Experts say that debt policy has already ruined several nations including Pakistan, hence US and India combine need to implement a strategy to rescue the SAARC nations which are financially very weak and Maldives is the recent example of falling in the trap of China.

India faces a big challenge

India is bound to be worried in the new year over the blatant tilting of the new president, Mohamed Muizzu who has decided to send back Indian troops currently stationed in the Indian Ocean archipelago which may create space for China in future. It is a move primarily aimed at reversing former president Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s ‘India first’ policy. In yet another anti-India decision, the Muizzu government has decided against the renewal of a memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with India for cooperation in hydrography.

A tale of two investments

China had spent USD 200 million on Maldives-China Friendship bridge. The Chinese investment has crossed the mark of USD 970 million which may be beyond the repaying capacity of this poor country. The present Muizzu regime will try to minimize  India’s influence, paving the way for China to grow its influence.

Bangladesh in the list of friendly

Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh has given fillip to India’s relations which have acquired new dimension during past 15 years. Hasina's victory in the elections is a good news for India. Khalida Zia’s government in 2000 was full of animosity towards India but she boycotted the polls hence irrelevant now. China has always shown keen interest in Bangladesh which is evident from its investment of USD 26 billion between 2016-22. Data shows that Beijing emerged as the country's largest FDI provider in Bangladesh as its investments topped almost US$1 billion, a 30 % increase from US$700 million in 2021.

Pakistan in turmoil

A cursory look at 2023 will exhibit that China was successful in moving forward on its Debt Trap Policy and Pakistan has been fully mauled and it may be impossible to come out of it in future. The Chinese investment in Pakistan rose to $65 billion in 2022 and it has already acquired control of Gwadar Port on 16 May 2013. Originally valued at $46 billion, the value of China Pakistan Economic Corridor was worth $62 billion as of 2020.

India’s strategy in 2024?

In this way, chances of release of Pakistan from the clutches of China seem to be remote but ensuing general elections in Pakistan in Feb, 2024 may change political landscape as chances of return of Nawaz Sharif have brightened after the tactical support being lent to his party by military establishment. Ex PM has expressed his desire to have normal relations with India. If it happens then India must reciprocate as diplomacy never permits deadlock.

Himalayan kingdom

China has emerged as a largest investor and trade partner of Nepal which has changed the contours of economic and diplomatic ties between two countries. President Xi’s visit in Oct, 2019 had resulted in the signing of over a dozen agreements in various fields. China has invested more than USD 1.34 billion in Nepal and is pressing for the implementation of BRI.

India’s Nepal policy in 2024.

Nepal assumes a lot of relevance to India and previous communist government headed by K.P.S Oli had tilted the balance in favour of the Dragon but new coalition government comprising predominantly Nepali Congress and Communist faction of present PM, Prachanda has tried to repair the ties with India. Now India has taken lot of economic initiatives which include long term trade deal, power purchase agreement, transit treaty etc. which might give new dimension to the ties between two countries. India should take this goodwill gesture to next level in the year 2024.

Sri Lanka’s economic collapse

Experts say that there is a ray of hope of continuation of Sri Lanka’s present warm ties with India which could be a fallout of open-hearted support and financial assistance of over USD 4 billion thereby surpassing International Monetary Fund’s 48-month bailout package of USD 3 billion. Sri Lanka President, Rani Wickremesinghe who had inclination towards China got a big shock when the Dragon quietly refused to provide financial assistance which gave a chance to India to come to the rescue of the beleaguered country. In view of the new awakening of the Sri Lanka political regime, India should undertake measures to further improve its bilateral ties which may cause discomfort to China.

(K.S. TOMAR, a political analyst having six-year experience of foreign posting in a neighboring country)