Looking back, looking ahead

This October marked fifty years since I began working. My first job was as a part time lecturer in History at the Allahabad University. Less than two years later, I was lucky to make it through the civil services examination to join the Indian Foreign Service in July 1975. I retired from service in August 2011 and since then have tried to keep abreast of national and international developments. It is not my intention to dwell on the past but focus on the main characteristic of the present era.

Five decades ago, the world was in the analogue age but now digitization is transforming our times. Digital products are bringing about fundamental changes in all spheres of human existence and they are naturally impacting inter-state relations too. Even though the world is in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution this is just the beginning of what will inevitably come. Artificial intelligence, robotics and the internet of things are currently changing the fabric of human lives and societies. Great transformations in the area of quantum computing, energy—movements away from hydrocarbons to clean and sustainable sources of power—and in bio-technology will, no doubt, come. When they do, human lives, societies and polities will be further transformed. New issues will come up, including, moral and ethical. This will be especially when bio-technology contributes to advances in the live sciences.

The main question now is how to embrace all human beings within the folds of the change that has taken place and what is to come. As it is, the digital divide is real. The total human population is now over eight billion. The vast majority is without access to the advantages of digitization. They are still in the analogue age if not at a lower stage of development. This is particularly so with human groups in remote areas which are cut off from the main current of human growth. Some governments, including that of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are aware of how digital products can bring about greater transparency and effectiveness in administration. This can extend from record keeping to making welfare schemes reach targeted populations. Much more work has to be done in this field but the beginnings that have been made are contributing to the welfare of the people. India has also done well to offer its experience in the use of digitization to the countries of the Global South.

In the 1970s and till the 1980s there was a great deal of focus on what was then called “intermediate technology”. The idea was, for instance, to upgrade modes of transportation, use of agricultural machinery and even communication systems gradually. The view then was that the Global South had not reached a stage of technical competence which would enable it to absorb the highest level of technology available in any field; hence, it should adopt a model of incremental improvement. An example which was sometimes given was that of bringing about changes in bullock carts to improve their performance. The idea that commercial or personal vehicles, especially two-wheelers, would expand exponentially as they did in India after the 1990s was not considered tenable. With the spread of digitization, the idea of “intermediate technology” has largely passed away.

The greatest challenge which now faces the human race is the threat of climate change brought about human activity. The countries which have caused the greatest damage to the environment had earlier accepted the idea of historical responsibility. They have however abandoned that notion and now demand that all countries, even the poorest, should tailor their development in a manner that avoids damaging the environment. To help the Global South the advanced countries pledged that they will share technology and give financial support. However, these have remained largely empty promises.

It is the use of hydrocarbons which has led to the global rise in temperatures which is responsible for extreme climate events occurring almost all across the world. In a sense it is a race between developing clean sources of energy and the use of hydrocarbons. The problem is that temperatures have already risen to levels which were earlier unforeseen. Climate scientists held that if temperatures rose 1.5% Celsius above the pre-industrialization period, then the world would come into increasing difficulty. They had thought that the 1.5% Celsius stage would reach later than it seems to be coming. Hence, the world is in a climate emergency.

The problem is that the major powers remain mired in old quarrels with many seeking to address historical wrongs. The demand of the age though is to focus on managing climate change and the digital era. Thus, the way the leaders of the major powers conducted themselves and looked at their national interests in times past is not tenable in the digital age. These leaders do not seem to give priority to the real challenges before humanity. Instead, the focus is still on the politically immediate and the urgent and not on the important.

It is not easy to change the thinking of people but that is the test of leadership. A number of leaders in the post Second World War era gave hope but does the present generation of leaders do so? Certainly, the likes of Donald Trump do not. And, the possibility that he wins the 2024 US presidential election cannot be ruled out. Hence, fifty years after I began working, I am filled with pessimism. Perhaps that is an attribute of old age!