Liberal-Conservative Split in Poland

The runoff between the two candidates who had emerged as leading and second—Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki--in the first round of Poland’s Presidential election was held on June 1. Poland’s constitution requires that a candidate should secure at least 50% of the votes cast to be win; no candidate was able to reach this percentage in the first round held on May 18. Hence, the runoff. The runoff casting of votes was closely watched all through Europe and beyond because they indicated the way the wind was blowing in a deeply divided Polish society and polity. These divisions are broadly between those who are liberal and favour the acceptance of European Union social, political and economic standards and those which are conservative and want Poland, while remaining in the Union, resist its encroachment in matters relating, for instance, to migration and agriculture.

By itself, a Polish Presidential election should not have really invited great attention because a President’s role is largely ceremonial. It is constitutionally restricted in security and foreign policy areas as in domestic policies passed by its national legislature. However, a President can veto legislation and if the Prime Minister led government does not command sufficient majority in the national legislature to override Presidential vetoes, it cannot fully implement its agenda. This was happening for the last many years. Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform desired deeper European integration and for Poland to go along with that process. This was at odds with the approach of the outgoing President, Andrej Sebastian Duda, who was supported by the Opposition Law and Justice Party. Both Duda and the Opposition wanted Poland to pursue nationalistic policies and curtail European Union intervention. This was especially in areas such as migration and agriculture.

Poland is the fifth largest EU country by population. It is seen as a bell weather in Central Europe. Therefore, a liberal/conservative split in Poland has implications for the region. Besides Poland has attracted international attention since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Millions of Ukrainians fled to Poland. The two countries share a 535-kilometre border. Poland also has a smaller border with Russia of 232 kilometres. There are currently around one million Ukrainians registered as refugees in Poland which has a population of 38 million. Initially, the Poles had great sympathy for the Ukrainians and welcomed them. However, that emotion is now waning among some Poles. That sentiment that also played a part in the Presidential polls.

The election went down to the wire. At one stage of the vote counting, it seemed, that Trzaskowski who shares Tusk’s inclinations would win. Eventually, however, Nawrocki scraped through with 50.9% of the votes cast in the election. Nawrocki had Duda’s and the Opposition’s support. He also signaled that he wanted and secured US President Donald Trump’s endorsement! This was important for Nawrocki because non-resident Poles have the right to vote in Parliamentary and Presidential elections and there were around 6 lakhs in the US with the right to vote in these elections. Nawrocki’s conservatism obviously strikes a chord in Trump. Normally, a foreign leader should not openly signal a preference in the choices of voters in an election in a foreign country because this is tantamount to electoral interference. But Trump does not follow convention. It was also obviously not considered so in Poland. And, Trump’s endorsement of Nawrocki perhaps contributed to a majority of Polish voters in the US voting for him.

The opposition Law and Order Party was in government from 2015 to 2023. During this period, it was accused of seeking to curtail the independence of the judiciary and of coming down heavily on NGOs and civil society. Many of these actions put it at odds with EU standards. That led to some EU funds being frozen. The Tusk led government sought to bring in more liberal legislation but met with Duda’s opposition. That opposition will continue under Nawrocki. This is a clear setback for Tusk and he has convened a session of the national legislature to seek a vote of confidence on June 11. This is in the face of the Law and Justice Party’s demand for early elections. Tusk wishes to show that his government has a majority in the national legislature and hence there is no need for fresh elections.

The impasse in Poland is going to continue. What observers will continue to monitor is its direction especially on the matters where with Nawrocki, as President, it will continue to fall short of EU standards. This also presents a dilemma for the EU because it knows that the government is unable to meet those standards not because its approach is like that of its predecessor but because its legislation is vetoed by the President.

Poland’s evolution over the past decade also shows that the forces of conservatism have gone up in the West. Since the second World War and during and after the process of decolonization the West use to contrast, in the developing world, its freedoms and civil liberties with the authoritarianism of the communist countries.

This was witnessed during the Cold War. After its end too throughout the decade of the 1990s the West continued with its emphasis on the need to do away with political and social practices which restricted individual freedoms. The first blow to this process came on account of 9/11. And, as rapid technological changes brought in social, economic and political uncertainties people in the West and elsewhere moved to the certainties provided by conservative values and leaders and formations who promoted them. Poland is no exception to this process.