Lessons from assembly polls

Although the Congress has scored more votes than BJP in the recently held assembly elections where focus clearly was on Hindi heartland states-Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan- in line with the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party has been squarely humbled by the BJP on social engineering front. As against the half-hearted approach of the Congress playing OBC/SC/ST and soft Hindutava cards, the BJP’s social engineering scored all over.

The reflection of BJP’s sturdy social engineering was reflected in the selection of chief ministers and their deputies in these states. On the face of it, it looked to be an exercise in generational shift and snapping of the last ties with the Atal Bihari Vajpayee- Lal Krishan Advani era, but the underneath was a carefully calculated caste equation exercise with focus on Lok Sabha polls.

While former Congress president Mr Rahul Gandhi brandished his OBC card, at times flirting with the Scheduled Castes by flaunting his grandmother Mrs Indira Gandhi’s strong appeal among these backward communities, the BJP actually calculated the math on the drawing board. Three chief ministers and their deputy chief ministers preceded by selection of candidates on similar line from varied castes say it all.

A tribal chief minister in Chhattisgarh, the OBC Chief Minister in Madhya Pradesh and a surprisingly Brahmin chief minister in Rajasthan, a strong pack of pan-caste and community deputy chief ministers coupled with backing of the ideological fountainhead RSS. A package that reflects BJP’s caste balancing act in the Hindi heartland for 2024 general elections.

These were master-strokes of sort. Who could have imagined a Brahmin as BJP’s chief minister in Rajasthan particularly after the community having been totally ignored by the BJP in the electorally strategic state of Uttar Pradesh and elsewhere including the party hierarchy. The state has a Brahmin chief minister after 33 years since Congress’s Mr Harideo Joshi in 1990. Is not that big surprise.

But that is how Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi pulls the proverbial rabbit out of the hat and springs a surprise all over.
Despite impressive victories in the electorally significant Hindi heartland states, the BJP strategists did not either lose sight or immerse themselves in celebratory mood but preferred to be forward looking through immaculately planned social engineering strategy. Reach out to the key communities of the heartland region namely tribals, OBCs, upper castes and Dalits notwithstanding the fact that this region has been a BJP stronghold as it had won majority of the Lok Sabha seats in 2019. Nevertheless, the party did not lower its guard.

The act of generational shift affected under the tutelage of Mr Modi through introduction of three new and comparatively younger faces as chief ministers, has been meticulously juxtaposed with balancing of the caste factors. It makes an effective package for the future electoral battle.

What makes this caste arithmetic interesting from the BJP’s point of view is that it strategically chose to cater to all the major caste groups by appointing deputy chief ministers, an act hitherto unknown in the BJP’s parlance. Well, this is act to strengthen and hold on to the rainbow Hindu coalition including all castes that had helped in winning 2019 general elections.

Why this renewed social engineering given the fact that BJP is already strong in the Hindi heartland? This is an interesting question in the light of the fact that the party had won 62 out of 65 Lok Sabha seats that these three states account for. This renewed push at caste engineering, ostensibly, has a broader connotation of helping the party beyond the Hindi heartland- the regions beyond north India. It has been done in the hope that it would send a strong message to other parts of the country that the BJP cared for all and in the process totally isolating the minority Muslim and Christian communities.

Will it deliver results accordingly? Only time will tell but the move in itself has significance and should set the Congress led opposition into serious thinking and introspection.

The Congress ignored giving proper representation to tribals in Chhattisgarh whereas BJP picked a tribal leader Mr Vishnu Deo Sai as chief minister. In a state where there is 32 per cent population of the tribals the previous Congress government ignored them in the top brass. The Congress, despite launching tribal central developmental schemes, did little to politically empower these backward communities. BJP steadfastly followed it up and lapped on it by promising political empowerment and delivering on that count.

Apart from the chief minister Mr Bhupesh Baghel the two deputy chief ministers were both non-tribals. It was at the last moment that a tribal leader was picked up as the state Congress unit. But it was too late.

The decisions such as making Mr Sai as CM in Chhatisgarh or Mr Bhajanlal Sharma as its first Brahmin CM in Rajasthan was not sudden as many would make us believe. Mr Sharma, a four-time general secretary of the party was chosen to contest assembly election for the first time by unseating a sitting MLA and overlooking the resultant revolt. Whether the party was sensing victory say for instance in Rajasthan but the plan for the next step had already been drawn in the shape of Mr Sharma.

Although feeling ignored and neglected by the BJP, still the party rates the Brahmins as major influencers and central to its Hindutava agenda particularly in the Hindi belt. More so, when the party is preparing on war-footing on inauguration of a majestic Ram Temple in Ayodhya. The idea could also be to strengthen its cast equations by attracting the Brahmins back to its fold in Uttar Pradesh which has 80 Lok Sabha seats.

While there has been hollow talk in the Congress circles of winning over the Brahmin community which has been feeling neglected and left out by the BJP and with no other place to park, the saffron party actually made the move on ground. The BJP has wrested this initiative from Congress where decision making is inordinate and woefully slow.

While the BJP has moved ahead sheerly on the basis of its capacity to take quick and strategic decisions, the Congress and so the I.N.D.I.A must mull over and draw lessons. If they intend to make a contest out of the coming Lok Sabha elections. Or else the game is as good as lost.