La Niña’s chill heads for Kashmir

Srinagar, Oct 7: Jammu and Kashmir may witness one of the most severe winters of the decade in the coming season, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting La Niña to amplify cold and freezing conditions.

La Niña is expected to affect the northern parts of India between October and December, the national weather forecasts reveal.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña, the “cooler-than-average” sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, has a 71 percent chance of developing between October and December 2025.

With a 54 percent likelihood of persisting into the core winter months, this phenomenon is set to turn the winters cruel.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that La Niña conditions are expected to set in during the next few months, and a forecast on temperatures for the post monsoon season would be issued soon.

Talking to Greater Kashmir, Director J&K Meteorology Department, Mukhtar Ahmad, said La Niña could prove beneficial for J&K, especially Kashmir, as it could bring better snowfall in the core winter months.

However, he said, the exact time of La Niña development could not be ascertained as of now.

“If it develops over November and December, it could be better for snowfall conditions,” the Director MeT said.

He said that during the last winters, La Niña was expected to hit northern India, but it arrived late and brought snowfall in February.

“That was not of much use. However, it can have hit earlier this year and be more useful,” Ahmad said.

He said historically, La Niña has been associated with colder winters, but “not always”.

“There have been colder winters without La Niña, too,” he said.

Ahmad said harsh winter predictions could stand better when La Niña conditions actually develop.

The colder, snow-filled winters are expected to bring reprieve to the famished tourism industry in Kashmir, while it would also set the stage for better agriculture prospects during the year.

Over the past five years, winters in J&K were variable but essentially drier than average.

There was a noticeable decline in snowfall amid rising temperatures influenced by climate change and stronger La Niña.

The 2020-21 season was an exception and saw heavy snowfall.

The 2024-early 2025 winters were colder.

Srinagar saw minus 8.5 degrees during Chillai Kalan.

Yet overall, precipitation was lower than average.

In the earlier phase of 2025, the mild El Niño effect tapered off.

El Niño effect was being held responsible for milder winters in 2023 and 2024.

In northern India, including J&K, La Niña typically strengthens westerly winds and western disturbances.

The storms originating from the Mediterranean lead to intensified cold air intrusions.

Former Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, M Rajeevan, said that La Niña effects may be muzzled by global warming.

“Nowadays, global warming is offsetting the impact of El Niño and La Niña on temperatures. La Niña normally cools the planet. The frequency of WDs is higher, and the associated atmospheric circulation is also different,” he said.