Keeping opponents guessing

At present the political parties in Kashmir with their wait and watch approach are keeping the opponents guessing about their next moves. The parties are showing no signs of opening their cards fully after the announcement of parliamentary polls schedule recently.

This is because there is still time left for the polling in the three seats of Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag - Rajouri- Poonch constituencies. The two constituencies in Jammu the Udhampur-Doda and Jammu are going to polls first, so the focus has shifted there.

After the hectic political activities the rhythm has suddenly slowed down in Kashmir following the announcement of poll schedule and also in view of the ongoing holy month of Ramadhan. Some activities are going on but they are expected to gain momentum as the polling dates come nearer.

The major political party National Conference has not yet announced its candidates. "We will announce the names when we wish. Let us have Eid first," said former chief minister and NC vice President Omar Abdullah recently. Similarly PDP has not declared its candidates. Even the much hyped electoral alliance of Apni Party and Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) is yet to take a shape. Names of the probable candidates from various candidates do keep on appearing in media but nothing can be said with authenticity about such reports.

The nervousness among the contesting parties is very much visible. The lack of confidence is because the delimitation exercise has changed the electoral map. The way the boundaries of the constituencies have been redrawn, it looks tough even for the strong parties and strong candidates to have a smooth sailing.

The delimitation has completely made the constituencies unpredictable. The political parties despite claiming to win are not actually sure which way the wind will finally blow and that too when so many parties and candidates will be in the fray causing lot of division among the votes. To guess which constituency is actually politically safe or unsafe for which candidate has also become difficult.

Even as the political parties must be trying to do their own calculations to reach to a conclusion but uncertainty and insecurity will continue to grip them till the votes are cast and results declared. For parties like NC and PDP it is like playing a cricket match on a pitch, which was earlier predictable but made unpredictable by the curator to their disadvantage.

Contesting against each other is not something new for the two parties but presence of Apni Party, DPAP, BJP and Peoples Conference in the fray is also a cause of concern for them. These parties can also get votes from the vote banks of traditional parties. If the Apni Party and DPAP really formed an alliance it can add to the problems of NC and PDP.

Those in DPAP believe that their chairman Ghulam Nabi Azad has lot of goodwill among the people for the development work he did for Jammu and Kashmir as chief minister and that if he contests the polls he will get benefitted. But it is also a fact that Azad could not give shape to DPAP the way it was initially being felt particularly in Kashmir.

Whatever be reasons for that, there is shortage of senior leaders from Kashmir in the Azad camp. Apni Party has several known political figures, who have won elections in the past on other parties' tickets, but can they influence the voters now and to what extent, is a big question. Party President Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari has done lot of hard work since he founded the new party amid severe criticism from traditional parties. But to what extent has he succeeded will also become clear in this election.

So far as Jammu is concerned, election related activities are gaining momentum there. The election results may be the repetition of 2019 and 2014 polls when Dr Jitendra Singh got elected from Udhampur-Doda and Jugal Kishore from Jammu.

This despite Congress giving mandate to Choudhary Lal Singh for Udhampur - Doda seat. Congress has come under severe criticism from various quarters for giving ticket to Lal Singh, who had to resign as a minister from the Mehbooba Mufti led PDP- BJP coalition government, for allegedly siding with the accused in the alleged gang rape and murder of a minor girl in Kathua.

Mehbooba at that time had taken a tough stand against Lal Singh but now when Congress gave ticket to him to contest, she is silent. So are the NC leaders on the issue. Both PDP and NC are part of the Congress led opposition's Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance ( I.N.D.I.A) right now. Opponents have started targeting the two parties on the Lal Singh related issue and the criticism will get louder as the campaigning picks up.

In the meanwhile former Member of Parliament Fayaz Mir returned to PDP. This can be an advantage for the party in the north Kashmir district of Kupwara. There are reports that some more leaders from north Kashmir may return to PDP. PDP had suffered extensively as senior leaders left the party either to form their own party or join other parties.

However, National Conference remained safe from this kind of damage. Its leadership strength at all levels is almost intact. The party has sufficient number of senior and junior leaders, who can take the responsibility on their shoulders to get votes in the elections. If the delay in assembly polls has damaged the interests of any party more, it is the NC. Early polls could have been a great advantage to the party.

The delay in elections helped PDP to recover to some extent from the political damage, caused to it by forming coalition government with the BJP. During the election delay more parties came into being adding to the problems of both NC and PDP.

Author is senior editor, Greater Kashmir.