Kashmir’s climate clock ticks faster
Srinagar, Feb 7: The winter of 2024-25 in Kashmir has been marked by record-breaking warmth, with January and February temperatures soaring above the average.
This alarming trend, observed over the past decades, has accelerated in recent years, with significant implications for Himalayan glaciers, water resources, agriculture, and economy, experts warn.
Prof Shakil Romshoo, a leading climate scientist and Vice-Chancellor of the Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST), has been vocal about the impacts of this warming, linking it to global climate change.
His insights, combined with meteorological data and environmental studies warn of Kashmir’s changing climate and its cascading effects.
February temperatures were in two digits, for the past many years, a stark deviation from historical norms, Prof Romshoo told Greater Kashmir.
He underlined that while February has been warming over the past decade, the magnitude of this year’s anomaly was unprecedented.
“However, what is new is that temperatures in Kashmir were 6 degrees Celsius to 7 degrees Celsius post-mid-January, quite past the long-term average, making it one of the warmest Januarys on record. This follows a trend of rising winter temperatures observed since the 1960s, but the pace of warming has accelerated dramatically in recent years,” he said.
Director of the Meteorological Department, Kashmir, Mukhtar Ahmad said, “With a 75 percent precipitation deficit in January, the forecast for the current year already seems to be settling well. Globally, January 2025 was the hottest January on record, with temperatures 1.75 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, despite La Nina’s cooling influence. India’s average temperature in January was also 0.94 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, contributing to Kashmir’s anomalies.”
Comparing current temperatures with records dating back to 1886, the warming trend is undeniable. Prof Romshoo emphasises that while climate change has been affecting the Himalayan region since the mid-20th century, its impacts have become “very rapid” in recent years.
The primary driver of Kashmir’s warming winters is global climate change, fueled by rising greenhouse gas emissions.
Prof Romshoo highlights that the region is experiencing the effects of a warming planet, with glaciers and ecosystems bearing the brunt.
In January 2025, an intense warm-air advection event caused temperatures to spike by 10 degrees Celsius in a single day in south Kashmir.
This phenomenon, driven by heat flux from westerly and easterly air masses, accelerated snowmelt and exacerbated the warming trend.
The lack of snowfall and warmer temperatures has led to significant glacier mass loss across the Himalayas.
Glaciers in Kashmir have lost substantial mass over the past decades, a trend mirrored in other parts of the world.
However, the glaciers melt due to warmer January and February is casting a dark shadow over agriculture and horticulture.
“Glaciers are melting earlier, causing peak water availability to shift from June to May. By the end of the century, this peak could occur as early as April, severely impacting agriculture and water-dependent industries,” Prof Romshoo said.
He said water requirements for paddy, a major crop in Kashmir, start in June and last upto September.
Kashmir’s economy is heavily reliant on water-intensive crops like paddy and apples.
Warmer winters disrupt the chilling requirements for apple cultivation, leading to premature bud sprouting and increased frost risks.
Reduced snowfall and earlier glacier melt are expected to decrease crop yields, impacting livelihoods and food security.
Prof Romshoo warns that J&K’s agricultural productivity is at risk.
