Kashmir extremely vulnerable to catastrophic floods, warns disaster management plan

Srinagar, Sep 7: Kashmir remains extremely vulnerable to catastrophic floods, with official climate analysis warning that extreme rainfall like the September 2014 deluge may occur more frequently in the future.

The Jammu and Kashmir Disaster Management Plan (SDMP) says the Valley’s unique geography, shrinking wetlands, and limited river capacity are leaving millions exposed to repeated disasters.

The plan notes: “Analysis of long-term daily rainfall of the region, using 25 km IMD gridded data, for the period 1951 to 2013, suggests that heavy rainfall like that of September 2014 has been unprecedented in the past record.”

The September 2014 downpour was the “rarest of rare,” yet projections suggest it may no longer remain rare.

In simple terms, official records from more than 60 years of data show that the 2014 rainfall was far beyond anything the Valley had seen before. But with changing climate patterns, experts fear that similar “cloudbursts could happen much more often in the years to come.”

According to the SDMP, “Most of the Southern District of Kashmir Valley has around 5 5-year return period for annual maximum daily rainfall exceeding 64.5 mm.”

Simply put, this means that very heavy rainfall, once considered exceptional, is now likely to return every five years or so in districts like Pulwama, Anantnag, and Shopian.

Climate model analysis using MIROC 4h data for 2006–2035 under the RCP 4.5 scenario suggests that this cycle will shorten further, leading to “increased possibility that more frequent events of extreme daily rainfall will be witnessed.”

This essentially means that extreme weather, which once had a long “return period” of decades, may now arrive far more frequently. What was once thought of as a rare weather disaster is gradually becoming part of Kashmir’s new normal. The report adds: “Similar analysis for 100 mm and 150 mm of rainfall suggests that the return period of daily extremes exceeding this threshold, particularly in Southern Districts, is very low compared to the other regions of the state. Comparison of long-term data in the region and recent rainfall event in the region indicates that the recent event was the rarest of rare, and even the long-term rainfall record analysis does not show such high variability.”

In other words, the southern parts of the Valley, where most of the population lives and where rivers drain, are especially at risk of cloudbursts and intense rain spells.

So, these districts are the most vulnerable if authorities do not act on preventive measures.

These warnings are set against the background of the Valley’s natural vulnerabilities.

“The Valley is bowl-shaped with a flat plain at EL.1600m, which does not allow rapid drainage of rain waters contributed by the higher reaches. From September 4 to 6, 2014, a lot of runoff was contributed from the higher catchment into the valley. Due to a lack of steep slopes, the runoff caused severe drainage congestion and inundation in Srinagar and adjoining areas,” the plan states.

Srinagar acts like a bowl — water flows into it easily from the mountains, but has little way to flow out. This natural design makes the city a flood trap whenever there is heavy rain in the catchment areas. The carrying capacity of the Jhelum River has also emerged as a key weakness.

“The safe carrying capacity of the River Jhelum between Sangam and Srinagar is about 900 cumec (31,700 cusec). The flood of September 2014 was about 3 times more of the capacity of the River Jhelum,” the report reveals.

At its peak, water flows at Srinagar reached 3200 cumec (1.13 lakh cusec), inundating vast areas after overtopping and breaching embankments. In other words, the Jhelum was asked to carry three times more water than it is capable of holding. No river system can withstand such pressure without spilling over, which is exactly what happened in 2014.

Historically, floods of similar or greater magnitude have struck the Valley – in 1950, 1957, 1959, and 1966 - but the situation today is far more precarious.

The SDMP observes, “Earlier, low-lying areas along the course of river Jhelum were functioning as natural flood detention basins during floods and were absorbing flood water spilling over the banks… However, during the last three to four decades, maximum urbanisation has taken place in these low-lying areas, due to which there is no space for water to get stored during flood seasons.”

In effect, wetlands, floodplains, and marshes that once acted as sponges have been lost to urban sprawl. Without these natural shock absorbers, even moderate flooding can turn into a large-scale disaster.

The disaster was not confined to Kashmir alone.

The Chenab’s flood peak at Akhnoor in 2014 was recorded at 23,500 cumec (8.32 lakh cusec), which was “about 76 percent more than the historical flood of 13,300 cumec (4.69 lakh cusec) recorded on 10th September, 1992.”

Similarly, the Tawi River in Jammu peaked at 11,000 cumec (3.88 lakh cusec), overtaking the highest recorded flood of 2005 after an intense rainfall spell of more than 33 mm per hour. The plan concludes with a stark warning: “Considering recent extreme rainfall episodes as an anomaly, return period analysis suggests that most of the Southern Districts of the valley may experience frequent extreme episodes. Although a detailed exercise is required to model the future more accurately, together with scenario-based uncertainties, this analysis indicates that the state authorities should plan for extreme rainfall of the region, particularly for the Southern Districts, which are the most populated and also close to the drainage network.”