J&K’s Rajya Sabha Math Chessboard

Srinagar, Oct 16: The Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir, scheduled for October 24, are a defining moment for the Union Territory, as they will determine its representation in the upper house of Parliament for the next six years.

Four seats are vacant, and the Election Commission of India (ECI) has issued three separate notifications – two single-seat elections and one covering two seats.

Each notification is treated as an independent election, meaning Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) vote separately for each seat, with no transfer of votes between notifications.

The Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly currently has 90 seats, although two seats in Budgam and Nagrota remain vacant, reducing the effective voting strength to 88.

The elections follow the single transferable vote system, which allows MLAs to rank candidates by preference.

In single-seat elections, roughly 45 votes are needed to secure victory, while in the two-seat contest, 29 votes per seat are required.

The STV system, combined with the independence of each notification, makes strategic planning, cross-voting, and vote transfers critical in deciding outcomes.

The National Conference (NC), as the largest party in the Assembly, is strongly positioned to secure three of the four seats.

The party has fielded four candidates – Choudhary Muhammad Ramzan, Sajad Ahmad Kichloo, Shammi Oberoi, and Imran Nabi Dar, with Dar contesting the fourth and most unpredictable seat.

The BJP, with 28 MLAs, has fielded three candidates – Sat Sharma, Ali Muhammad Mir, and Rakesh Mahajan - and Sat Sharma is expected to claim one seat in the two-seat notification based on its strength.

The fourth seat has emerged as the most competitive and unpredictable.

Smaller parties and independents hold significant sway here.

The People’s Conference, led by Sajad Lone, has announced it will abstain, while PDP has offered conditional support to NC on the promise that NC would back its two crucial legislative proposals – the Land Rights and Regularisation Bill, 2025, and the Regularisation of Daily Wagers Bill - moved by the PDP in the Assembly.

The Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also remain non-committal, and Congress, though not contesting, has not clarified whether it will vote for NC candidates.

With these uncertainties, cross-party negotiations, strategic voting, and coordination among MLAs could determine the winner of this seat.

Even a handful of votes from smaller parties or independents could tip the balance.

While the NC is virtually certain to claim three seats, the fourth seat represents a litmus test of political maneuvering in Jammu and Kashmir.

It reflects the influence of smaller parties, independents, and strategic alliances in shaping outcomes in a fragmented Assembly.

The Rajya Sabha elections thus go beyond arithmetic.

They will restore Jammu and Kashmir’s voice in the upper house, demonstrate coalition and negotiation dynamics, and indicate which parties can exert influence beyond their numerical strength.

When voting concludes on October 24, three members are likely to be elected from the NC, and the fourth seat will be determined by the calculations and strategic decisions of smaller parties and independents.

These elections are crucial not only for representation in Parliament but also as a barometer of political strength, negotiation capability, and alliance dynamics in post-reorganisation Jammu and Kashmir.