J&K population set to decline

Srinagar, Dec 31: Jammu and Kashmir is on the brink of demographic crossroads, with alarming signs of a potential population decline.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) data from the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5) revealed J&K stands at 1.4, far below the replacement level of 2.1.

This sharp decline is a continuation of a trend observed in previous surveys: NFHS-4 (2015-16) recorded a TFR of 1.7 while NFHS-3 (2005-06) reported a higher TFR of 2.4.

The TFR measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years (15-49) based on current age-specific fertility rates.

It is calculated by summing the age-specific fertility rates for all reproductive age groups in a population.

A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, ensuring a stable population.

The sustained decrease in fertility rates implies that J&K is transitioning into a demographic phase characterised by population stagnation and eventual decline.

With a TFR significantly below the replacement level, the region is now in the league of countries facing demographic contraction like Japan and Italy.

TFR of J&K is higher than only Sikkim, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Goa, and Ladakh.

However, the plunge in the TFR graph is the steepest for J&K among all Indian states and UTs, barring Ladakh.

From 2.4 TFR as reported by NFHS-3 to 1.4 as per NFHS-5, in the past 15 years, J&K has dropped the fertility rate by one point, drastic by any measure.

Such a consistent downward trend highlights the profound demographic transition underway in the region.

Senior Specialist, Population Foundation of India, Martand Kaushik attributed the low fertility in J&K to high female literacy among other factors.

“Wherever in India, women have 10 or more years of schooling there the fertility rate is low. In addition to women having a role in decision-making, government-run family planning programmes are also contributing factors. In some places, family planning schemes have done better than others. That said, 1.4 is quite low,” he said.

This rapid decline in fertility is mirrored by other indicators of demographic transition, such as increasing use of contraception, rising female literacy, delayed marriage, and declining infant mortality rates.

“While these are markers of social progress, they also signal challenges for sustaining population growth in the long term,” he said. “The ideal size of the family is being influenced by many factors, apart from the personal choices of a couple. It is something we need to talk about as a society.”

With fewer births, the proportion of the elderly population will grow in the coming decades and the younger population is shrinking.

As per the census 2011, J&K’s percentage of the population in the 0-14 years age group was approximately 27 percent, which dropped to 20.6 percent as per SRS 2019.

Talking to Greater Kashmir, Coordinator of the Population Research Center at the University of Kashmir, Syed Khursheed Ahmed explained the potential impacts of a low fertility rate.

“A decline in fertility rates results in fewer births, leading to a shrinking younger population in the coming decades. This, in turn, could reduce the working-age population, potentially causing labour shortages and a drop in economic productivity,” he said. “In addition, this demographic shift could strain healthcare systems with a bolstering elderly population. We will have less number of people in the productive age group and more in the age group that requires care – the elderly. We need to prepare our healthcare systems for this.”

Kaushik from PFI said: “While a smaller population might reduce strain on resources such as water and land, the need for elder care facilities and age-specific services will increase. Policymakers must prepare to allocate resources differently to address this new reality.”