J&K political parties going into parliament polls mode

With no other election in sight, the political parties in J&K have slowly started going into the parliament polls mode. The Lok Sabha polls are scheduled in April – May next year in the country. Jammu and Kashmir despite having only five parliament  seats  may be the first among the states and union territories to go into this kind of election mode much ahead of the time. Five states are presently busy with the assembly elections, schedule for which has already been announced by the election commission of India. Senior leaders of national and regional parties are busy in election campaigning in these states. Since the assembly polls are being held there only a few months before the Lok Sabha polls, the election results will be important. The results can have some kind of affect on the Lok Sabha polls. Usually,  the Lok Sabha and assembly polls are contested differently and the local issues dominate the proceedings in assembly polls. However, no party  would like to be complacent in the coming assembly polls as they feel the results can build a narrative for the Lok Sabha polls as well.

While several opposition parties on national and regional levels have joined hands under the banner of I.N.D.I.A. bloc but the allies are bound to face big challenges in coming times and mostly on the issue of seat sharing arrangement. Seat sharing for parliament polls will be a huge task. Even the ongoing assembly polls in five states has started showing cracks in the bloc. The recent war of words between Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav and Congress over seat sharing for Madhya Pradesh  polls were not positive signs for the I.N.D.I.A. allies. The differences may surface further when the parliament polls will approach. If the bloc has to remain intact, then it will have to resolve the seat sharing arrangement issue in near future. Some way out has to be found out. Whether justified or unjustified, Congress from the very beginning has the tendency of trying to get a lion’s share in any kind of alliance .The other parties are fully aware of such an approach by the main opposition party at the national level. But Congress on the other hand is also aware that it cannot single handedly take on the BJP led NDA in polls. The party may have won some assembly polls this year or last year but Lok Sabha polls is an entirely different electoral politics format, where the party has also to take other opposition parties big or small along. That is why even the opposition parties from J&K, which is having only five parliament seats, too get some kind of prominence and space in I.N.D.I.A. bloc.

In J&K among the five seats, BJP is very much confident of winning again the Jammu  and Udhampur seats and is also eying on the newly redesigned Anantnag – Poonch seat during the delimitation exercise. In Last Lok Sabha polls in 2019 , BJP had won the two seats in Jammu region and National Conference three seats in Kashmir Valley. Ladakh seat which was part of the erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir state at that time was  also won by the BJP.

After the recent victory in Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC) polls, the  NC- Congress alliance has geared up to win the Ladakh Lok Sabha seat also in coming election. On the other hand BJP is confident about repeating the 2019 performance and bagging the seat this time as well. The party says its vote share has increased in the LAHDC- Kargil polls and the number of the council seats has gone to two from one earlier. Division of votes among the non- BJP candidates in Parliament polls can also give an edge to BJP as had happened in 2019.

Political parties in Kashmir are in a fix after some changes made in the boundaries of the Lok Sabha constituencies during delimitation. The changes can affect the poll results also. 

Anantnag constituency was connected with Poonch district and parts of Rajouri district in Jammu. Some south Kashmir parts, which were earlier part of Anantnag constituency, have been joined with Srinagar constituency.

Some parts of Srinagar constituency have been shifted to Baramulla constituency and some parts of Baramulla joined with Srinagar. In view of the changes, it is not the same situation now for NC, which had won all the three seats in Kashmir in 2019. The parties are confused or curious to some extent  same way as the cricket teams get just before the top level matches.

The teams want to know as what type of a pitch  has been made by the curator. Will the pitch help spinners or the fast bowlers or the batsmen? This question is always in the minds of teams before the start of the match. Same way some political parties in J&K are not sure to what extent the redrawing of the boundaries of the constituencies will be an advantage or disadvantage for  them.

After its non- participation in recent Kargil council poll, PDP will have to make it clear  to its voters whether or not it is going to contest the Lok Sabha polls. NC would like to contest from all the three seats in Kashmir.  PDP may insist for Anantnag – Poonch seat in case there is some seating arrangement with NC. And if there is no understanding between the two parties, the PDP may  also contest from all the three constituencies in case it decides to take part in the elections.

Selection of candidates will be also a big task for the parties. Will NC President Dr Farooq Abdullah contest again or Omar Abdullah will like to take part this time? Likewise, will PDP president Mehbooba Mufti contest? What about the chairman of Democratic Progressive Azad Party DPAP chairman Ghulam Nabi Azad? Will the Apni Party President Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari and Peoples Conference chairman Sajad Gani Lone also contest? These are the questions right now being asked in political circles in Kashmir. The picture will get clear as the Lok Sabha polls approach further. Dr Farooq is  presently the sitting member  parliament (MP). Azad, Omar and Mehbooba have been MPs in past.

With uncertainty continuing over the timing of assembly polls, these leaders may like to give a try by contesting polls in April -May to re- enter the parliament. Same can be the case with senior leaders of some other parties also

Author is senior editor, Greater Kashmir.