J&K is ageing

Srinagar, Jul 17: J&K is ageing fast.

By 2031, an estimated 17 percent of Jammu and Kashmir’s 1.48 crore residents, roughly 25 lakh people, will be over 60 years of age.

Of these, 19 percent will be dependent on others for support, a fast diminishing prospect.

To add to the concern, the human resources to support this increasingly ageing society are shrinking due to low fertility rates here.

A crisis is brewing silently.

In J&K, the elderly population rose from 6.7 percent (about 6.8 lakh) in 2001 to 7.4 percent (around 9.3 lakh) in 2011.

It was estimated to be around 9.5 percent (approximately 13 lakh) in 2021, based on a 2024 population of 1.37crore.

Population studies experts put the elderly population projection in J&K at 17 percent (25 lakh) by 2031.

These estimates are based on rising life expectancy figures calculated by national surveys.

In J&K, the life expectancy is among the best in the country.

Perched at 74 years, it is higher than the national average of 69.4 years and lower than life expectancy in Kerala and Delhi.

While it is a commendable achievement in itself, J&K is recording another shift in its population dynamics – the ratio of child population (0-14) is declining due to low Total Fertility Rate (TFR).

In simpler words, there are going to be fewer children, more elderly in J&K, tilting the balance – fewer people would be in the workforce, and more people who will need support.

The old-age dependency ratio has increased from 11.6 percent in 2001 to 12.5 percent in 2011, estimated at 14.1 percent in 2021, with forecasts predicting 19 percent (4.75 lakh) by 2031.

The old-age dependency ratio is the number of individuals over 60 per 100 working-age individuals.

Women tend to be more disadvantaged due to their low share in employment, ownership of assets and other factors.

Their dependency ratio is also higher.

Coordinator of the Population Research Centre at the University of Kashmir (KU), Syed Khursheed Ahmad, said it was important to delve deeper into the factors of dependency.

“Yes, the elderly population is increasing; however, the dependence ratio is not corresponding to this increase, it is higher,” he said.

Ahmad quoted the Elderly in India 2021 report, which revealed that 77 percent of elderly residents in J&K depend on their children for support.

He said with just 8.5 percent of the elderly in J&K having formal education, the threat of social exclusion and limited access to resources was set to deepen.

Old age brings with it a plethora of issues – loss of income, spike in healthcare needs and a restriction in access and sometimes mobility too.

According to India Ageing Report 2023 (UNFPA), 21 percent of the elderly here had restrictions in their daily activities, 39 percent had no income, and 35 percent had multiple health conditions.

About 30 percent experienced depression or stress.

Those in nuclear families report higher mental health issues than those in joint families.

Moreover, women aged 60 in J&K have a life expectancy exceeding 20 years.

Ahmad said this must be a special area of work for bringing about elderly-focused policies in J&K.

While the growing elderly population is a national phenomenon and affects much of the world, for places like J&K, which have high life expectancy and a fertility rate among the lowest, it is an immediate concern.

“This demographic shift demands urgent action,” said a sociologist from KU. “J&K needs a robust healthcare system and social inclusion policies that make the increased life span a dignified life span for people here.”