J&K Elections: An unprecedented Shift

Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Assembly elections, 2024, are going to be a turning point in the electoral politics of the region. For the first time ever people are seeing an unparalleled increase in the number of political parties and independent candidates participating in the polls. This election is expected to be not so simple with new coalitions, independent candidates and previously banned organisations taking part in the political game.

In the previous elections, the political map of J&K was restricted to few national and regional political parties such as J&K National Conference (NC), J&K Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Congress and the BJP. Though, for the first time, a number of regional political parties are entering into the contest and each of them desiring to capture its proportion of the population electorate.

The political transformation has taken place after the passing of J&K Reorganisation Act of 2019 that has divided the state into two union territories and has forced traditional political parties to re-strategise there approache while at the same time giving birth to new political dynamics. These are parties that have emerged in recent decades and are in the process of trying to make use of the regional sentiment and smaller constituencies which may feel left out by the major parties.

To the list of challenges characteristic for this election, one can add the increasing role of independent candidates. These people, most of whom have no experience in partisan politics. It has reached an alarming stage where several organisations that have been declared subversive and unlawful, resulting to their being not allowed to register and operate as political parties, are now presenting their candidates as independent candidates. This is a very risky strategy that could change the tone of the entire election, since such organisations possess a large pool of supporters in the relevant regions.

However, one of the major events observed in this election is the coalition of the Congress and the National Conference. In the past Congess has always had a support base in Jammu and Kashmir. This time they have woken up and have aligned their selves, at least on paper, supposedly to put up a strong united fight against their main adversaries, the BJP.

The formation of the Congress-National Conference alliance is being seen as a strategic blow, aimed at consolidating the anti-establishment vote and ensuring that it thereby does not get split several ways. Together they might present a formidable force to their competitors and more so in the Kashmir Valley which has been a stronghold for both political outfits.

On the other end of the political spectrum the BJP and the PDP are both opting out of alliance and will contest the election singly. The main opposing player in the Indian political arena is the BJP which is eyeing to firmly establish in Jammu and to penetrate into the valley of Kashmir. In the 2019 elections the party secured several seats in the region of Jammu but failed to do well in the region of Kashmir.

The PDP, with the downfall of its coalition with BJP in 2018, has had a difficult time in trying to find its ground. Nevertheless it still has its vote bank in the Kashmir valley. The PDP now seems to think that there is a way it pulls a rabbit out of the hat and makes much of the votes it would have lost to either the BJP or the Congress-NC alliance.

Another impressive factor that is reflected through the scenario of this election is that the banned organisation are also running this election and their candidates are also in the race in the capacity of independent candidates. Such groups which according to the government were involved in anti-state activities have been in the region though not legally recognised. It remains their prerogative to engage themselves in an electoral process, a factor that can boost the entire process and probably shift the course of the election.

Though these candidates may not subscribe to any of the formal political parties they, for most part, have very strong support within their respective local areas.

The central question on everyone’s mind is: Who will be victorious in this election? More and more entrants emerge into the market making the task of predicting the outcome even more complex than ever. The increasing number of political parties, independent candidates and alliances dilute the electorate’s voting pool and it becomes hard to predict the distribution of the votes.

This is due to the fact that the NC and the PDP have long been the premier parties in the Kashmir Valley with the BJP commanding large support in the Jammu region. However, due to Congress-NC alliance and BJP-PDP division, it is envisaged that the voter would be more polarised as compared to previous elections. Furthermore, independent candidates and banned organisations want to compete for votes.

Lastly, the outcome will hinge on which of the two factions shall have had a better strategy in the mobilisation of its supporters and the attraction of the rest of the vote. Issues such as; unemployment, development, and political stability are going to be paramount in influencing the minds of the populace if they will or will not vote as expected. However, one of the variables that will be of great significance in influencing the results is the involvement of the electorate, especially in terms of voter turnout.

Another relevant question has to do with the fact as to whether the people of Jammu and Kashmir would come out in large numbers, to exercise their electoral franchise. Earlier, the voter turnout in the Kashmir Valley has been much less as people have been afraid of adverse elements, due to political unawareness and call for boycott by the separatist parties. Yet, this election may likely have a higher turn out especially if the people believe that the politicians in the two parties are responsive to voters’ concerns.

The party manifestos of the major political parties will also be important in influencing the electorate’s voting behaviour.  If the political parties are able to present an attractive vision of what the future holds for Jammu and Kashmir particularly concerning the issues of development, youth unemployment, the problems concerning decentralisation of power and other political questions, then the electorate may just respond.

Dr. Firdous Ahmad Malik, Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Management.

University of People, Pasadena, California, United States.

Owais Ismaeil, Doctoral Fellow, Centre of Advanced Study, Department of History, University of Delhi.