J&K, and India as a third largest economy

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday declared that India is on its path to become the third largest economy in the world. This was read as a response to the US President Trump’s jibe that “India and Russia can take their dead economies down together.”

It was a humiliating taunt and this had to be responded to in a sophisticated manner which Modi did. However, limiting the scope of his statement to Trump’s utterances would be reducing importance of the track and goal that he has laid out for the government and the people.

In the scenario when India will walk past Germany to occupy third place in the order of ranking, never forget Jammu and Kashmir will play a critically important role, provided potential of its landscape and the people is recognized. They deserve their recognition as peace-makers, till date they have been subjected to the narrative of peace-wreckers. In the aftermath of Pahalgam attack, they told the world which side they stand – peace and rejection of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. They deserve to be fellow travellers in this ambitious and historic journey. They also deserve to be seated in the seat auditing their status as people of crown jewel of the country.

As of today, India is the fourth largest economy. It is natural for it to eye the next slot in the global economy. It has both the potential and speed to achieve this goal. The economy of India, the most populous country on the planet is growing at the rate of 6.2 percent, far ahead of the global economy growing at the rate of 2.9 percent. These statistics were rolled out by the International Monetary Fund in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook report.

The report noted that after several years of overlapping shocks, the global economy has “entered a phase of cautious stabilization”. It explained that “growth remains modest and projections for global output have been revised downward from the January 2025 update. This reflects a steep rise in tariff rates, policy uncertainty, and slowing progress in international cooperation.” It also underlined the downside risks in trade tensions and volatile financial markets will continue to weigh on the outlook.

But, for India, the report noted that the “growth outlook is relatively more stable.” The IMF projected steady expansion for the Indian economy, supported by firm private consumption, particularly in rural areas. “In a global environment marked by uncertainty and subdued growth, India’s resilience stands out, reinforcing its role as a key driver of global economic activity.”

In this report, the IMF noted, “India is projected to remain the fastest growing large economy for 2025 and 2026, reaffirming its dominance in the global landscape. The country’s economy is expected to expand by 6.2 percent in 2025 and 6.3 percent in 2026, outpacing many of the global counterparts.” In contrast, the IMF projected global economic growth to be much lower at 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3.9 per cent in 2026. It highlighted India’s exceptional outperformance.

Prime Minister laid out the pathway as well; “Now, whatever we buy, there should be only one scale, we will buy those things which have been made by the sweat of Indian. And something which is made by the people of India, made with the skills of the people of India. For us, that is Swadesh.”

Swadeshi is embedded in the minds of Indians since the days of country’s freedom struggle. This has both economic and political objectives. The struggle was against Britain’s colonial rule, now it is for the supposed and declared intentions of western imperialism, including the US. Times have changed. India, since its independence in 1947, has shown that what all it can achieve. The swadeshi continues to be our key tenant. Now it is aiming at Indian dominance through its indigenous produce and technology.

Prime Minister, while making a call for resolution of swadeshi also brought in the success of Operation Sindoor due to the use of the indigenous weaponry during the 87-hour high intensity conflict with Pakistan. This Operation made the world to acknowledge that how India can dominate, air, earth and seas through its indigenous built weaponry.

Operation Sindoor was a manifestation of Swadeshi skills and technologies. But here, we need to pause and assess the call for the third largest economy and the trigger for Operation Sindoor. This operation was triggered by Pakistan sponsored terrorists’ attack killing 26 civilians, mostly tourists, in Pahalgam on April 22. This has changed many concepts and opened newer landscape of newer challenges and opportunities.

It brings Jammu and Kashmir into picture. Had Pahalgam not happened, there would have been no military operation against terrorists and their patrons in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Accordingly, a new norm has been laid that any future act of terror would be taken as an act of war and responded with equal or greater lethality.

Terrorism is enemy of economic growth. Pahalgam incident read against the backdrop of violence-hit history of Kashmir of the past 36 years, holds empirical evidence to this. The terrorism in any part of the world causes economic losses, consequences of which are borne by places and people much beyond the days of incidents.

Kashmir experienced damage to its economy ever since guns and bombs started booming on its soil. Its economy was left in ruins, particularly the tourism. Pahalgam was the recent incident which unfolded how a sense of insecurity can undo efforts made over years.

The question, some may ask, how is J&K related to the country’s work for achieving the status of third largest place in the world economy?

The answer is simple: if Kashmir is peaceful, Indian economy will grow beyond the IMF projections. It will cut down on many expenses of the country.

On Swadeshi front, Kashmir’s horticulture, agriculture, handicraft are indigenous and so is its tourism - houseboats, shikaras, ponies. Let swadeshi skills of J&K grow, from carpets of Kashmir to Pashmina shawls of Basohli. One cannot resist Kashmiri cuisine or Rajma-Chawal of Jammu. These are key factors that cam drive the economic growth.

Just think of J&K in the third largest economy scenario, it is not only a co-traveller but much more than that.