Israel - Hezbollah ceasefire takes effect amid cautious optimism

New Delhi, Nov 27: A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, announced by U.S. President Joe Biden, officially on Tuesday came into effect on Wednesday morning after more than a year of conflict. Moments before the agreement began, Israeli airstrikes targeted southern Beirut, and Hezbollah responded with drone launches, highlighting the brittleness of the truce.

The ceasefire deal aims to end the prolonged hostilities, which escalated significantly in September when Israel intensified its airstrikes and launched a ground invasion in response to Hezbollah’s rocket attacks. If successful, the agreement could be a beginning of the peace process toward stability in the region.

Key Terms of the Agreement

Under the ceasefire: Israeli troops will have to leave Lebanon within 60 days; Hezbollah fighters will withdraw to north of the Litani River, replaced by the Lebanese Army in the south; the Lebanese military, Israeli military, and UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) will be joined by the U.S. and France to oversee implementation and patrol the Blue Line border area; the U.S. will handle any reported violations of the ceasefire agreement though US soldiers will not be present on the ground; the U.S., France, and other nations will provide financial and technical assistance to strengthen the Lebanese military through a newly established Military Technical Committee (MTC).

Challenges Ahead

While the ceasefire holds promise, its success centers on the ability of all parties to adhere to the agreement. The Key concerns include that thousands of Lebanese soldiers are expected to deploy in southern Lebanon, but questions remain about their ability to fulfil this mandate.

The Lebanese army faces shortages in funding, manpower, and equipment, raising doubts about its capacity to replace Hezbollah effectively. Historically, the Lebanese military and UNIFIL have struggled to prevent Hezbollah’s rocket attacks into Israel, and there are fears that sectarian divisions could complicate enforcement. In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that Israel reserves the right to intervene militarily in Lebanon if necessary, signalling caution about Hezbollah’s compliance.

Although the ceasefire does not directly impact Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, its implementation could have broader regional implications. International efforts to bolster economic and infrastructure development in southern Lebanon aim to create conditions for a “durable ceasefire.” However, Lebanon’s internal divisions and Hezbollah’s dominant role in the south present significant hurdles.

The next 60 days will be critical. As Israeli forces withdraw and Hezbollah retreats, the ability of the Lebanese Army and international stakeholders to maintain order and prevent a resurgence of violence will determine whether the ceasefire leads to lasting peace or merely a temporary pause in hostilities.