Is the playing field level?
Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) represents a unique part of India as far as the distribution of people across faihts is concerned. The distribution of the country taken as a whole has 79.8% Hindu population with Muslims forming 14.2%, being the 2nd largest religion. The J&K stands out with a Muslim population of 68% making it the highest percentage in the country’s erstwhile states. This is, however, exceeded by a tiny UT of Lakshadweep with a total population of 62,338 only, with 96.7% being Muslims.
It is currently being administered by an appointee of the Central Government, Mr Praful Khoda Patel belonging to the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) since December 2020 for a period of 5 years. The people of this UT in the recent Lok Sabha elections, however, defied the BJP dominance when Mohammed Hamdulla Sayeed from Indian National Congress trounced the NDA backed Yousuf T P (Ajit Pawar faction). Yousuf polled a mere 144 votes.
The Lakshadweep example shows the thought process of the BJP clearly. It is to make serious efforts in bringing their party into rule in the UT of J&K. This process started in the year 2019 by abrogation of article 370 and 35A, followed by bringing in special acts. The J&K Re-organization act of 2019, getting a delimitation of the UT done with the Delimitation Commission Report of 2022 and the J&K Re-organization (Amendment Act of 2023).
Without going into the details of these changes. The outcome was that Jammu got an additional six seats and Kashmir only one in spite of having 56.3% population in Kashmir. The reason given was that Jammu has a geographical area of 62% as compared to only 38% of Kashmir which defies any logic.
The distribution of Lok Sabha and legislative assembly seats seem to have been done by “experts” without having an idea of the ground reality. It has no political, social and administrative reason to justify these recommendations. However, these were implemented despite political parties pointing out the associated problems. Anantnag of the valley being combined with 2 areas of Rajouri and Poonch and Badgam district combined with Baramulla, are just two examples.
In addition to keep things under control, the Lieutenant Governor, an appointee of the Central Govt, has been given the power of nominating 5 seats, which in all probability would be given voting power to enrich the game of numbers. The new arithmetic makes it 47 seats in Kashmir, 43 in Jammu plus 5 nominations.
Before delimitation the numbers were 46 in Kashmir and 37 in Jammu and 2 nominated ones for women. Both Sambha (92% Hindus) and Kathua (87% Hindus) have now been given additional seats. These districts lie on the international border. However, same logic has not been used in the districts of Rajouri (63% Muslims) and Poonch (90.4% Muslims) both being along the line of control. The reasons are easy to understand.
The electoral prospects of BJP in the valley are dim although they have decided to participate in these elections unlike in the Parliamentary elections. The main players in the elections will be national parties like the BJP and Congress, and regional parties like the National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The PDP is unlikely to be a force except taking away a small percentage of votes of NC. There are several other smaller parties that have emerged in the Kashmir Valley, like the People’s Conference led by Sajjad Lone and Apni Party led by Altaf Bukhari which has been strengthened by many members from the PDP, joining it. The democratic Peoples Azad Party (DPAP) of Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad is another new comer. They are, however, going to have a very little impact on the valley’s results.
A new surprise in the Valley politics is the rise of, what some peopel might see as a 'pro-separatist' outfit, called the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), led by a mercurial Engineer Rashid who shocked observers of J&K politics earlier this year by winning the North Kashmir Lok Sabha seat of Baramulla, defeating Omar Abdullah. Since then, speculation is rife that Rashid’s party would emerge as a strong force in North Kashmir politics giving a tough competition to People's Conference of Sajad Lone.
The going is not to be easy for BJP in Jammu either. With frustration among the voters because of a prolonged political vacuum, anger at the new laws affecting business, the growing unemployment, inflation and rising electricity bills in face of perpetual shortage of power. Whether the recently announced alliance of NC and Congress is going to get the combination more seats in Jammu area is still not clear. With the election manifesto of the NC categorically stating their first demand of restoration of articles 370 and 35 A , it is going to put Congress in an embarrassing situation with elections in Haryana on October 1, and Maharashtra following soon. BJP is going to try and capitalise on this issue.
The slogan of restoration of article 370 and 35A, an emotional issue for Kashmiris, is not going to happen with, not just the Parliament but also Supreme Court having given its concurrence for its abrogation. Instead, the slogans should have been focussing mainly on getting more employments, cost containment of essential goods, improving the infra structure including getting enough electricity, which have been the main issues for public at large. People are intelligent enough to understand that restoration of the articles is a story of the past. Let us wait and watch the developments and alliances in the days to come and what happens if NC bags the valley and BJP the Jammu area.
After a wait of 10 long years an elected government by the people and resetting a new political order is on the cards. It is very important for the people of the UT, and with the eventual restoration of the statehood, it is like a dream come true. These elections and the results on 4th October will be watched keenly not only by the rest of the country but also the world.
Prof Upendra Kaul, an accomplishd cardiologist, awarded Padmashiri and Dr B C Roy Award, is Chairman Cardiology and Dean Academics and Research Batra Hospital and Medical Research Center, New Delhi. He is also Founder Director Gauri Kaul Foundation
