Is J&K’s fate sealed by the skies?

Srinagar, Aug 31: J&K is battling a crisis with blurred lines between natural and human-made disasters.

Experts believe that the surge in extreme weather events isn't just bad luck, but a catastrophic mix of climate change amplified by deforestation and reckless development.

From extreme dry spells to unprecedented rainfall, extreme temperatures, and landslides, the number of ‘abnormal’ days is increasing each year.

The year 2025 has been an unusual one in terms of weather events.

While eight extreme weather events were recorded in 2024, by June 2025, data showed that 12 days of EWE had already been recorded.

The months of June, July, and August have been catastrophic in J&K, with many places facing floods, landslides, and sinking in addition to record breaking heatwaves.

The year is not an aberration.

In 2016, Kashmir recorded an eight-month long dry spell, crippling agriculture and water supplies.

Earlier this year, scant snowfall nearly canceled winter sports entirely.

Ski resort Gulmarg remained barren the entire winter, with February offering the parting chance to hold the games.

These aren't isolated incidents.

Temperatures in J&K have risen by 0.8 degrees Celsius on average from 1980 to 2016.

The maximum temperatures are spiking even higher at 0.97 degrees Celsius.

This has shifted precipitation patterns drastically, resulting in faster and earlier glacial melt and water scarcity towards the end of summer.

Talking to Greater Kashmir, Vice Chancellor of Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST) and a noted environmentalist, Prof Shakeel Romshoo, said that the escalating frequency of extreme weather events – dry spells, extreme heat, freezing cold, and deluges - is fueled by climate change.

“For the past 30 years, the glacial melt, the change in land use, the deforestation, and their interplay with the environment and ecology have unravelled, faster than ever before,” he said. “Our own actions - building homes in flood channels, fields in marshes and wetlands, clearing forests to set up industrial areas, among others, have turned natural vulnerabilities into man-made catastrophes.”

According to an RTI earlier this year, by M M Shuja, 1233 permanent and semi-permanent structures have been identified over the Jhelum banks and its spill channels.

In addition, 215 boundary walls have encroached upon the river, disrupting its flow.

The filling of Nallah Mar and the fate of wetlands are all human activities that disrupt the natural flow of water.

As per available data, Hokersar has shrunk to 13.75 sq km from 18 sq km, and its open water body has reduced from 210 hectares to a mere 45 hectares.

Wular Lake has lost 7018 hectares since 1911 due to urbanisation, agriculture, and plantation expansion.

Prof Romshoo said that Kashmir was known as “Satisar” and was extensively covered with wetlands and other water bodies.

He said encroachments of flood channels and river basins now plug the flow of water.

“What once took days of rain to overflow now spikes after just a day or two,” he said.

Prof Romshoo said Jhelum’s carrying capacity has plummeted due to siltation, urbanisation, and wetland loss.

The deluge of 2014 that devastated major parts of the Tawi and Jhelum areas was amplified by these anthropogenic factors - deforestation, wetland destruction, and poor planning.