Interesting times are ahead!

Although it has been central to the BJP, and its erstwhile avatar Bhartiya Jan Sangh, but Article 370 never assumed such a central place as in the just concluded three-phased Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections.

Historically the BJP had always stood for its abrogation and thematically pursuing a more intense communal line with majority Muslim status of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir an eyesore for its leadership. This has been vehemently opposed by the Congress and regional parties such as National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party. While the Sangh Parivar firmly believes in a unitary and centralized system and saw Article 370 in its original form as an impediment, for Congress de-centralisation and unity in diversity has been a core belief.

The assembly election to the truncated and demoted Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir were held when simultaneously the other dissected part of the former state, Ladakh was up in arms with educationist cum environmentalist Mr Sonam Wangchuk leading a 1000 kilometer long ‘Environment Protection March’ from Leh to Delhi. While the election in J &K hovered around Article 370’s dilution and its fallouts, the Ladakhis had a similar but a grouse with variance against this episode that germinated on August 5, 2019 thereby changing the geography of the region.

All the three regions have a complaint against the current dispensation. And the common thread has been the unfulfilled lofty promises made by the Centre (read BJP) to usher the two UTs in an era of unprecedented development, political empowerment and protection of basic rights.

The assembly elections saw the fall-out of these broken promises with people in Jammu and Kashmir regions, if not acting in unison in a planned manner, heading to the polling booths heavily loaded with a feeling of betrayal. Of course, there had been a component, not as strong as in the Lok Sabha election or prior to that, in Jammu region.

The one common denominator between the two regions with varied perceptions has been dilution of Article 370. All other factors including unemployment, loss or lack of political empowerment, agricultural stress, rising prices and locally speaking, installation of electronic power meters, were in one way or the other related to Article 370. Reason being, apart from the improvement in the security situation, for different reasons and attributes, nothing much has happened on other fronts.

Although the three regions of the erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir state are diverse in all respects but they had a unique distinction of first being ruled by a Hindu Maharaja and later on in Independent India by a Kashmiri Muslim- a natural corollary of Kashmir region having more assembly seats than Jammu. Both the systems had their regional biases and administrative failures and complaints.  Thanks to the political machinations from Delhi and local leaders in Jammu and Kashmir, Article 370 despite providing a special status to the state and protecting people’s rights, was made to look lime a separator - for different reasons by the Congress, National Conference, PDP and the Sangh Parivar.

The assembly elections-2024, has given a different look and dimension to Article 370 in its present form as it is still a part of the Constitution. The biggest confusion it has created was in the minds of the authors and the followers of developments of August 5, 2019. It was the result of this confusion that BJP shied away from contesting any of the three Lok Sabha seats in Kashmir Valley and fielding candidates on only 19 out of 47 Valley assembly seats despite a claim duly buttressed by a strong section of the media that there has been an overwhelming support for the saffron party across Jawahar Tunnel.

The release of controversial separatist politician Engineer Rashid held in Tihar jail under stringent UAPA and sudden change in attitude of the Jamat e Islami, which has been charged with fomenting separatist thought, fielding number of independent candidates, ostensibly to fill the gap left by BJP by not contesting all the seats, is also the result of this confusion. This has certainly created confusion in people’s mind but if independent observers in Jammu and Kashmir are to believed, it has, at the same time, brought more clarity in their mind as how to hit at their main target, the BJP.

This confusion has hit the BJP equally if not less-harder in its bastion of Jammu region barring couple of districts with mixed population. The BJP’s strategy at the mere sloganeering, hyper-nationalism and raising Hindu sentiments, has not fully worked with the people. This coupled with RSS not going full steam and a vast section of the BJP rank and file angry on issues of non-governance and an unreceptive Lt Governor’s administration to their pleas and domination of the party affairs by the “outsiders” who came from other parties, fully reflected on the polling day on the streets of Jammu.

This situation has made it look difficult for the BJP to hit the target of winning 35 seats out of 43 in the region, as against 25 in the last assembly elections, to be in the driver’s seat to cobble together a majority and form the government. The party’s slogan of giving first Hindu chief minister to the UT also felt silent during the election campaign.

The nearly eight percent drop in polling in the Hindu dominated Jammu and adjoining district should be a worrying factor for the BJP. But not entirely, as the Congress has failed to put its best foot forward. Right from the selection of candidates, which was overloaded with vested interests and economic considerations, to the fuzzy election campaign, it could prove to be a face-saver for the BJP and it can still end up garnering a respectable number of seats.

How will this eight percent fall in voting pan out? How seriously can it hit the BJP? Or can a beleaguered Congress take benefit of this situation? These are important questions on which hinge the future of both BJP and Congress-National Conference alliance in Jammu and Kashmir.

The possibility of the election throwing up a hung assembly is looming large. A messed-up Congress-National Conference alliance, though it was most desirable under the circumstances to take on the BJP, more so in Jammu region, should worry the alliance partners. If the irrepressible Dr Farooq Abdullah’s, the man for all seasons, charisma works alongside the strong organizational pan-Kashmir network of National Conference, he could be able to defeat the BJP (read Centre’s) plan to divide the mandate.

In any case, interesting times are ahead!