Insights into Kashmir Politics
Recently, I listened to MP Agha Ruhullah at the Halla-Bol Conclave. This time, he spoke in a different tone, open, and straightforward without considering party positions or cadre sentiments. He clearly stated that elections are not won solely on party strength but often by individual face value. He further argued that if victories truly reflected party power, then the first result should have come from North Kashmir, where the party’s tallest leader contested, suggesting his own victory was based on personal merit rather than collective party support. His remarks opened up a new debate about how electoral victories in J&K are interpreted. Reducing to mere personal popularity ignores the crucial role of party workers, organization, historical legacy and loyal constituents who architect every campaign. Applying the same parameter, Omar Abdullah’s twin victories in Budgam and Ganderbal would also have to be linked solely to his persona-an argument that oversimplifies the political reality. In reality, electoral outcomes in J&K result from a mix of personal integrity, party potency, public sentiment, and historical legacy. Neglecting any element blurs the political landscape.
In Srinagar, the NC’s dominance has never contingent on personality. Srinagar has long been the party’s emotional and political core, where the party symbol outweighs candidate’s persona. Even new leaders like Mushtaq Guroo defeated senior politicians because Srinagar’s political DNA cannot be isolated from the NC’s legacy. From Sheikh Abdullah’s land reforms to Omar Abdullah’s initiatives, the party’s roots run deep. This was reaffirmed when Ruhullah nomination faced a technical objection and the party fielded Salman Sagar, a young, first-time candidate, yet remained confident of victory. This confidence reflected not in personal appeal, but NC organisational depth. In this context, Ruhullah’s idea that electoral success stems mainly on personal popularity rings void. The fact that any NC candidate could triumph Srinagar enduring the strength of the party’s legacy rather than personal charisma.
In the South Kashmir–Pir Panjal constituency, senior NC leader Mian Altaf emerged as a formidable challenger to Mehbooba Mufti. While South Kashmir remains the hotbed to the PDP’s existence, Mian Sahab’s deep socio-ethnic influence across Pir Panjal and the higher reaches of Pahalgam, Verinag, Kokernag, and D.H. Pora gave the NC a decisive advantage. His victory reflected both party strength and personal credibility. In North Kashmir, Omar Abdullah remained the only NC leader with the stature to confront Sajad Lone. His entry reshaped the electoral field until the late sympathy wave for Engineer Rashid overturned the equation. Omar’s defeat stemmed from emotional undercurrents, rather than weak leadership or any party fault lines. Had he contested Srinagar, his victory would have been almost certain, with a larger margin than Ruhullah’s. Omar chose the tougher battle in North Kashmir, enabling Ruhullah to contest the safer Srinagar seat. Party sources suggest Ruhullah was unwilling to contest from North Kashmir.
The 2024 Assembly elections revealed deeper political patterns beyond vote shares. In Jammu, four independents won, three widely, perceived as NC-backed proxies-Pyare Lal Sharma, Choudhary Mohammad Akram, and Justice Muzaffar Iqbal Khan-reflected NC’s organisational networks. The fourth, Satish Sharma from Chhamb, won on inherited political capital. In Shopian, NC’s decision to field Sheikh Mohammad Rafiq over Shabir Kullay backfired, as Kullay contested independently and won with significant NC support, proving that personal rapport can outweigh official party engagement in Kashmir’s complex political terrain. In Budgam, Ruhullah’s electoral strength lies in the convergence of faith and politics that shapes his public identity. As both a revered Shia cleric and a seasoned NC leader, he carries father’s moral and political legacy. This dual identity gives him a distinct edge, Field observations suggest that nearly 30 percent of his support comes from his personal influence, while 70 percent derives from NC’s enduring organisational base. With Budgam and Beerwah excluded from the 2024 Srinagar parliament seat.
Senior leaders including Sakeena Itoo, Shameema Firdous, Nazir Gurezi, advocate Larmi, and Peerzada Feroze have consistently highlighted that Ruhullah’s victory was fundamentally a party victory. The NC’s cadre remained fully mobilized under clear leadership directives, making it misleading to attribute the triumph solely to individual appeal. During the 2024 Parliament election, close sources told me they served as NC polling agents despite never knew Ruhullah personally; their motivation come from instructions by Block Presidents, MLAs, and senior leaders like Showkat Ganaie, Ghulam Mohi-ud-Din Mir, & Justice Hasnain Masoodi. Ruhullah’s performance in Parliament-on Article 370, Article 35A, detainees, and regional security-have been measured yet fearless, earning him respect across ideological divides. Having observed his public service since 2013, I have seen the clarity and sincerity that define his politics. The broader lesson is that the NC now stands at a decisive juncture. The collective experience of Omar Abdullah, Mian Altaf, and Ruhullah Mehdi offers the party a chance to rebuild unity at a time when political fragmentation helps no one.
Recent Trends:
PDP candidate Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi won the 2025 Budgam by-election with 21,565 votes, defeating the NC, 17,089. Anti-NC vote consolidation, acknowledged by PDP and supported by leaders like Hakeem Yaseen and Molvi Imran Raza Ansari, shaped the outcome. NC suffered from internal dissent—stemming to Ruhullah’s perceived absence from campaign, longstanding grievances over development, and reactions to Omar Abdullah’s statements on smart meters, comparison between the party leaders and his criticism of leaders who skipped campaigning. While some of Omar’s points had merit, voters felt he should have exercised greater political restraint. Another key factor was political neglect perceived after Omar Abdullah vacated the Budgam seat he won in 2024, creating a trust deficit. Despite internal rifts and a broad opposition alliance, the NC’s 17,089 votes reflect a durable grassroots base.
For a party rooted in legacy, the Budgam verdict is a political wake-up call. The constituency’s socially diverse and politically aware electorate values leadership stature, community engagement, and organisational depth. The defeat reveals a growing disconnects between the NC’s central leadership and its grassroots supporters, sowing the party’s struggle to adapt to rising expectations. Budgam’s voters now prefer performance-based governance over rhetoric. NC also misjudged the importance of opposing candidate’s socio-cultural profile. Budgam voters have historically rewarded. The verdict signals a wider political trend that highlights the traditional vote banks can no longer be taken for granted, as voters shift toward accountability and performance-driven politics.
Tailpiece:
Aga Ruhullah overlooks the wide social base of the party and the primordial loyalties that people had with legendary Sheikh Abdullah’s NC that delivered them from the oppressive conditions under the Dogras. He underestimates the emotional and historical connection people still feel with the party’s legacy, especially its progressive and unprecedented land reforms still echo across J&K, particularly in rural imagination. The NC’s robustness and deeply institutionalised structure, having survived orchestrated onslaughts of the Centre and their local clients, still maintain its regional character. NC’s arduous history of defiance towards homogenising Unionist forces equally helped the voters in the past, no matter their candidate was an unknown, first-timer - Aga Ruhullah. It was the party’s legacy, not just his individual appeal, that secured the victory. Ruhullah is a populist leader and perhaps unrealistic about how the current Union dispensation views regional political formations in J&K. His attempt to project himself as a conscience keeper and a dissident voice is nothing but narcissistic self-glorification.
The author is Senior Researcher and presently teaches Geography at GDC, Ananatnag.
